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Journal : AGROMIX

Analysis of production projections and factors that correlated with rice production in Indonesia Rusman, Muh. Al-Aswar; Darsono; Antriyandarti, Ernoiz
AGROMIX Vol 15 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35891/agx.v15i1.4061

Abstract

Introduction: Meeting rice needs is largely determined by the level of domestic rice production. However, the various dynamics that occur provide encouragement to provide an overview of the conditions for meeting food needs, namely in the form of rice, based on trends in rice production and how independent variables correlate with rice production. The aim of this research is to determine the projected rice production for 2023-2032 and determine the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable (rice production) and the independent variables in the form of harvested area, price of harvested dry grain, price of urea fertilizer and price. Methods: namely a quantitative descriptive method with secondary time series data from 1993-2022. Data analysis techniques for forecasting studies are by using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis. Meanwhile, in the correlation analysis of rice production using the Pearson correlation. Results: Projections for rice commodity production in Indonesia from 2023 to 2032 using the MA1 model show a positive trend. Analysis of the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, namely harvest area (X1), rice price (X2), urea fertilizer price (X3), and price of other food commodities, namely corn (X4) shows a significant positive relationship with rice production in Indonesia. Conclusion: Projections for rice commodity production in Indonesia from 2023 to 2032, which were analyzed using the MA 1 model, obtained data with a positive trend which states that based on past data, Indonesian rice production will continue to increase every year in line with domestic food needs.
Co-Authors A. R. H. Tahier A. Rubiyanto Ade Meyra Rahma Aprilya Saputri, Friska Apud Nursihabudin Arya Wijaya Kusuma Aslamiyah, Ditya Ayu Novita Sari Bekti Wirawati Burhanudin Devy Nur Pika Putri Dian Devita Yohanie Dian Devita Yohanie Yohanie Dika Ramadhona, Zahra Dita Wulandari Endang Tri Wahyurini Endarko Erlyna Wida Riptanti Ernoiz Antriyandarti Esye, Yendi Fadilla, Fatma Nur Farichah, Auliya Niswatul Febriana Sesunan, Mira Gusniawati, Ayu Hariyanto Harti, Sumi Hayuning Ambar Ristika Herry Susanto Hery Hernawan Humbang Purba Husen Asbanu I WAYAN SUBERATA Irawan, Suko Istinganah Eni Maryanti Istinganah Eni Maryanti Joko Kismanto Juang Laksono, Galih Julikah Kurniawati Darmaningrum Kusnandar Lailatul Mustagfiroh Laras Nur fitriani M. Firdhaus M. Haekal Majekroatina, Dian Maswadi Millenia Rahmah Dinia Minar Ferichani Mohammad Harisudin Muhamad Defi Aryanto Muhammad Iqbal Birsyada Muhammadi, Ilham Azkha Al Muhisom Nasharudin Nasori Nelly Astuti Nur Afifa, Linda Nur Syamsiyah Prahastowo, Bintang Apriyan Pratama, Aldino Gilang Pratama, Juan Putri, Andrealina Mulyo Dewi Ramadhan, Muhammad Hariyo rebon, ecy Restu Yanuar Ula Risala, Rahmatul Romadhoni, Achmad Eka Rusman, Muh. Al-Aswar Saputra, Feri Candra Sariyana Septiana Slamet Hartono sri marwanti SRI WIJIASTUTI Susi Wuri Ani Sutarti Syafrudin Tri Ivanka, Nova Tya Tri Wulandari, Alviani U. Farahdina umi barokah V. Z Zulfa Virda Putri Novita Wulandari Wahyu Susiloningsih, Wahyu Wibowo, Pandan Wijaya, Bryant Candra Wirawati, Bekti Wiwit Rahayu Yahya Yahya yefri chan