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Veri Ilhadi
Universitas Malikussaleh
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Prediction of Shrimp Sales Using the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) Method at UD Udang Makmur Peureulak Veri Ilhadi; Muliana Muliana; Zulfia , Anni; Ulya, Athiyatul; Sahputra , Ilham
Multica Science and Technology (ACCREDITED-SINTA 5) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Multica Science and Technology
Publisher : Universitas Mulia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47002/mst.v4i2.978

Abstract

UD. Udang Makmur is a shrimp farming business that often faces challenges in accurately predicting sales stock due to reliance on manual forecasting methods. This study aims to develop a web-based sales prediction application utilizing the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The application uses daily sales data from January to December 2023 for analysis. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2,1,1) model delivers accurate predictions, achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.264295. Forecasts for the next 24 periods demonstrate a stable projection, with predicted values converging around 2.5 and a narrow 95% confidence interval. These findings highlight the model's reliability and low uncertainty for the forecasted time frame. The application was successfully tested using the Black-Box method, confirming its functionality and effectiveness in supporting sales predictions.
Co-Authors - Fakhrurrazi Achmad Noerkhaerin Putra Aidilof, Hafizh Al Kautsar Akbar, Jamalul Amanda, Diana Andrian, Deny Angelina, Difa Angga Pratama Angga Pratama ANNISA KARIMA Ardiansyah, Danil Arief Arief Rahman Arief Rahman Arif, Abdul Halim Arif, Rijalul Arifa, Tiara Minda Asran Asran Ayu Widari, Lis Bukhari, Fiona Burhanuddin Burhanuddin Chairil Anwar Cut Agusniar EDI YUSUF, EDI Edo Prandahlan Eka Rahma Emi Maulani Ezwarsyah Ezwarsyah F Saragih, Annisa Fakhruddin Ahmad Nasution Fakhrurrazi Hidayat, Amam Taufiq Ilham Sahputra Irma Yurni Irvan Na’syakban Irwansyah, Defi Jamalul Aqmal Khaira, Miftahul Khairul Amna, Khairul Kurniasi, Arni Astuti lia melani, lia Liza Afra Maulidin, Muhammad Misbahul Jannah Muhammad Gaffar Kamata MUHAMMAD HABIB Muhammad Muhammad Muharram, Rachmad Muliana Muliana Munirul Ula Mutammimul Ula MUTHMAINNAH Muthmainnah Muthmainnah Muthmainnah Muthmainnah Nazariah, Cut Pandiana, Annisa Rachmad Muharram Rahma Fitria, Rahma Ridha Maulana Rizki Mela Kurnia Rizky Putra Fhonna Rosdiana Rosdiana Rosdiana Rosdiana Safwandi Safwandi Sahputra , Ilham Sahputra, Ilham Salahuddin Salahuddin Salamah Saptari, Mochamad Ari Sari, Indah Maulida Sayed Fachrurrazi Selian, Riko Ardiansyah Sidek, Zailani Mohamed Siti Fatimatun Zahro Sujacka Retno Sukiman, T. Sukma Achriadi Syukriah Syukriah Syukriah Syukriah, Syukriah Teuku M. Arief Afwan Ulya, Athiyatul Wahyu Fuadi Yesy Afrillia Yulisda, Desvina Yurni, Irma Zailani Mohamed Sidek Zalfie Ardian Zohra, Siti Fatimah A Zuhra, Amna Zulfia , Anni