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ANALISIS PERAMALAN IMPOR, POSISI PERDAGANGAN, DAN KETERGANTUNGAN IMPOR BAWANG PUTIH INDONESIA Nunuy Nur Afiani; Irene Kartika Eka Wijayanti
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/

Abstract

Bawang putih adalah salah satu komoditas strategis dalam perekonomian Indonesia, namun ketergantungan yang tinggi terhadap impor bawang putih menimbulkan risiko besar terhadap ketahanan pangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) memprediksi volume impor bawang putih Indonesia, (2) menganalisis posisi perdagangan bawang putih, dan (3) mengevaluasi ketergantungan Indonesia terhadap impor. Data konsumsi, produksi, dan impor periode 2019–2023 dianalisis menggunakan metode peramalan moving average, indeks spesialisasi perdagangan (ISP), dan rasio ketergantungan impor (IDR). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa impor bawang putih diprediksi meningkat hingga mencapai 657,02 ribu ton pada 2028, dengan akurasi peramalan sebesar 95%. Nilai ISP negatif menunjukkan Indonesia sebagai negara importir dominan bawang putih tanpa daya saing internasional. Selain itu, nilai rata-rata IDR sebesar 90,71% mencerminkan ketergantungan signifikan terhadap impor bawang putih. Temuan ini menegaskan perlunya kebijakan strategis seperti peningkatan produktivitas lokal melalui insentif bagi petani, akses teknologi, dan penguatan pengawasan terhadap kewajiban tanam importir.    
POSISI PERDAGANGAN, KETERGANTUNGAN IMPOR, DAN FORECASTING IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA Reni Kristyanti; Irene Kartika Eka Wijayanti
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/

Abstract

Kedelai merupakan komoditas penting dalam mendukung ketahanan pangan Indonesia. Namun, ketergantungan impor kedelai yang tinggi dan produktivitas domestik yang rendah menjadi tantangan utama. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing Indonesia dalam perdagangan kedelai, tingkat ketergantungan impor, dan meramalkan volume impor kedelai  selama lima tahun ke depan. Metode yang digunakan meliputi analisis Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP) untuk menilai daya saing, Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) untuk mengukur ketergantungan impor, serta metode peramalan moving average untuk memproyeksikan impor. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa nilai ISP Indonesia selama 2019–2023 rata-rata bernilai negatif (-0,99827), menegaskan posisi sebagai net importir dengan daya saing rendah. Nilai IDR menunjukkan ketergantungan impor yang tinggi, mencapai puncak 92,33% pada 2021, meskipun mengalami penurunan hingga 87,10% pada 2023. Proyeksi impor menunjukkan tren menurun dari 2,177 juta ton pada 2024 menjadi 1,872 juta ton pada 2028, mencerminkan potensi peningkatan produktivitas domestik. Daya saing yang lemah, ketergantungan pada harga pasar internasional, dan ketergantungan terhadap kedelai impor dari Amerika Serikat menjadi perhatian utama. Upaya strategis seperti peningkatan produktivitas domestik, diversifikasi sumber protein, dan kebijakan agraria yang mendukung diperlukan untuk mengurangi ketergantungan impor dan memperkuat posisi Indonesia di pasar internasional.
KELAYAKAN DAN STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN LUMBUNG PANGAN MASYARAKAT UNTUK MENDUKUNG KETAHANAN PANGAN (STUDI KASUS PADA LPM GAPOKTAN NGUDI TANI) Neni Irawati; Irene Kartika Eka Wijayanti; Lilik Kartika Sari
Jurnal Pertanian Agros Vol 27 No 4 (2025): EDISI OKTOBER
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Janabadra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37159/jpa.v27i4.154

Abstract

National food reserves are built through the roles of the central government, local governments, and communities, one of which is implemented through the development of Community Food Barns (Lumbung Pangan Masyarakat/LPM) as an effort to empower communities and strengthen food-related institutions. This study aims to analyze the business feasibility of LPM from both financial and non-financial aspects, as well as to formulate development strategies to support food security. The research method employed is a case study using a descriptive exploratory approach with qualitative and quantitative analyses. Financial analysis uses indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, and Return on Investment (ROI), while non-financial analysis covers legal, organizational, marketing, and socio-economic aspects. The results show that LPM Ngudi Tani is financially feasible, with an NPV of IDR 476,072,831, an IRR of 52%, a payback period of one year, and an ROI of 36%. From a non-financial perspective, LPM has legal status, a clear organizational structure, an established marketing system, and contributes to stabilizing the supply and prices of rice and unhusked rice, as well as creating employment opportunities. The SWOT analysis places LPM in a growth and development position. The main recommended strategy is strengthening partnerships to increase sales, supported by policy measures, resource optimization, and capacity building of human resources.  
PERSEPSI PETANI TERHADAP PERTANIAN ORGANIK DI KABUPATEN BANYUMAS Emy Triyanti; Irene Kartika Eka Wijayanti; Akhmad Rizqul Karim
Jurnal Pertanian Agros Vol 27 No 4 (2025): EDISI OKTOBER
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Janabadra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37159/jpa.v27i4.155

Abstract

Declining agricultural productivity and crop failures caused by changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and reduced water availability are negative impacts of climate change on agriculture. Threats to the agricultural sector are not only influenced by the impacts of climate change, but also the implementation of conventional farming systems. Implementing an environmentally friendly farming system that is adaptive to climate change and able to improve farmer welfare is one solution to mitigate the negative effects of conventional farming, namely organic farming. Farmer perception is how farmers see, think, and respond to something. Farmer perception influences their decision to implement organic farming. The study aimed to analyze farmers' perceptions of organic farming in terms of economic sustainability, ecological sustainability, and social sustainability and to identify the influence of factors on farmers' perceptions. The study was conducted in Dawuhan Village, Banyumas District, and Lemberang Village, Sokaraja District, using quantitative descriptive approaches with a census method. Farmers' perceptions of organic farming in terms of economic sustainability were categorized as very high (80.6%), very high in terms of ecological sustainability (71%), and very high in terms of social sustainability (83.9%). Factors that significantly influenced farmers' perceptions of organic farming were ease of organic cultivation and relative profitability. Ease of obtaining production inputs, the role of groups and stakeholders did not significantly influence farmers' perceptions.
Co-Authors Abdullah, Muhammad Irfani Afifi, Muhammad Ainul Agus Sutanto Agus Sutanto Ahmad Izzul Asyhar Akhmad Rizqul Karim Ali Hasyim Al Rosyid Altri Mulyani Altri Mulyani Amaliah Nur Aini Anisur Rosyad Anny Hartati Any Suryantini Ardhian Rachmanto Ayu Sitanini Aziz Pradana Azzahra, Fahira Azalia Bambang Sumanto Biky, Muhammad Amir Boru Saragih, Selvani Damaryanty Budi Dharmawan Darmawati Putri, Dindy Dhika Sulistiyo Dindy Darmawati Putri Dindy Darmawati Putri Djeimy Kusaman Dwidjono, Hadi Darwanto Dyah Ethika Noehdiyati Emy Triyanti Endang Sriningsih Hasanah, Erni Ummi Indah Setiawati INDAH WIDYARINI Jamhari Jamhari Karim, Akhmad Rizqul Kurniawati Darmaningrum Kusmantoro Edy Sularso Kusnaman, Djeimy Lilik Kartika Sari Lutfi, Burhanudin MANDAMDARI, ALPHA NADEIRA Mellinia, Salwa Putri Mochamad Sugiarto Monica, Ersa Muhammad Amir Biky Muslihudin Muslihudin Muthia Auralia N. DYAH ETHIKA Neni Irawati Norbertus Citra Irawan Nunuy Nur Afiani Okki Nur Safitri Perdana, Putri Prasetyo, Kunandar Pratiwi, Liana Fatma Leslie Raniasari Bimanti Esthi Ratna Satriani Reni Kristyanti Retno Lantarsih Rifki Andi Novia Rosi Widarawati Rozanisa, Isnaya Sapara, Nadia Saputro, Wahyu Adhi Sarno Sarno Savira Kusumadewi Sawitania Christiany Dwi Utami Boru Situmorang Sholih Riwaldi Sipri Paramita Solekan, Muhamad Sukma Wijaya, Indra Sunendar Sunendar Sunendar Suyono Suyono Syahrul Ganda Syahrul Ganda Sukmaya Syamsul Arifin Tatang Widjojoko Ulfah Nurdiani Ulfah Nurdiani, Ulfah Virekha Yolanda Wahyu Adhi Saputro Wahyu Adhi Saputro Wakhidati, Yusmi Nur WARDONI, ILHAM Wiwiek Rabiatul Adawiyah Yunita Firdha Kyswantoro Zandra Dwanita Widodo Zulhilmi, Muhammad Ivan Zulkfli, Lutfi Zulkifli, Lutfi