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Journal : Scientific Journal of Informatics

Integration of Random Forest, ADASYN, and SHAP for Diabetes Prediction and Interpretation Aulia, Hozana; Wibowo, Adi; Sutrisno, Sutrisno
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol. 12 No. 2: May 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v12i2.24314

Abstract

Purpose: Diabetes is a chronic disease with a globally rising prevalence. Early detection of individuals at risk is essential to prevent long-term complications. This study aims to develop a diabetes prediction model that not only achieves high classification accuracy but also provides transparent explanations of the factors influencing its predictions. Methods: The study utilized the Pima Indians Diabetes Dataset, which contains clinical data from 768 female patients aged over 21. The methodology included data preprocessing (handling of missing values and feature engineering, such as the creation of Age_BMI and Glucose_BMI features), a 70:30 train-test split, class imbalance handling using the ADASYN technique, model development using the Random Forest algorithm with hyperparameter tuning via GridSearchCV, and model interpretability analysis using SHAP. Result: The proposed model achieved an accuracy of 79.2% and a recall of 85.2% on the test data. SHAP analysis revealed that Glucose, Age_BMI, BMI, and DiabetesPedigreeFunction were the most influential features in predicting diabetes. Furthermore, the SHAP heatmap indicated that individuals aged 30–50 years with obesity were at the highest risk. These findings align with existing medical literature, reinforcing the role of metabolic and age-related factors in diabetes development. Novelty: This study presents an integrative approach combining class balancing (ADASYN), classification (Random Forest), and model interpretability (SHAP) in a unified framework for diabetes prediction. It emphasizes the importance of transparent model interpretation for healthcare professionals, enabling not only predictive outcomes but also actionable insights into risk factors. The findings support future research opportunities, including the integration of lifestyle variables and external validation using real-world clinical data from diverse populations.
Co-Authors Adiputera, Yusuf Fahmi Agus Winarno, Agus Airawata, Chintya Puteri Akhmad Yun Jufan Amir Amir Andre Leander Anggraini, Kurnia Anindya Wirasatriya Aprillia, Teya Aris Puji Widodo Aris Sugiharto Arista, Faza Ariyanti, Atika Ash Shidiq, Iqbal Putut Asri, Riyadul Astuty, Yulia Indri Aulia Kumala, Shofa Aulia, Hozana Baharun, Hasan Baskoro Baskoro, Baskoro Bayu Surarso Budi Warsito Cendani, Linggar Maretva Chin, Wei Hong Daimah Daimah Daimah, Daimah Djayanti Sari Drihananto, Angga Dyna Marisa Khairina eka rahmawati Evi Frimawaty Fajrul Falah, M Rizqi Faridah, Ida Febriatul Khasanah, Qoidah Firdonsyah, Arizona Gafuraningtyas, Dewi Gunanto, Sigit Hadi, Marhensa Aditya Handayani, Alfania Sarah Helmie Arif Wibawa HENDRI WASITO Hening Pratiwi, Hening Heri setiawan I Ketut Agung Enriko Imam Ahmad Ashari, Imam Ahmad Indra Jaya Indrajaya, Indrajaya Ita Nurmalasari Junta Zeniarja Kamarudin, Norizah khusnul khotimah Khusnul Khotimah Kosasih, Eva Dania Kubota, Naoyuki Kumala, Shofa Aulia Kuncoro Adi Pradono Kurnianingsih Kurnianingsih, Kurnianingsih Kushartantya Kushartantya Leni Leni Lily Puspa Dewi Lutfan Lazuardi Made Suadnyani Pasek Maori, Nadia Annisa Mardalena, Ayu Moh. Roqib Mohamad Madum Muhajir Muhajir, Muhajir Mulyani, Heny Muslihatin Nurhasanah Nia Kurnia Sholihat, Nia Kurnia Noer, Marwah Noor Azizah Nugroho, Adam Nur Cholid, Nur Nur Hadian Nur, Agus Salim Nurmalasari, Ita Paramitha Putri, Nadya Parluhutan Manurung Pradono, Kuncoro Adi Prasetya, Ferdian Adhy Pratomo, Bhirowo Yudho Purwaningsih, Yuli Purwanto Purwanto Putri, Niken Anissa Putro, Abraham Timotius Asmoro Rahmadi Rakyan Paksi Nagara Rani Rubiyanti, Rani Ratih Permatasari Ratna Saraswati, Ratna Ribah, Muhammad Ato Ibnu Rini Nuraini, Rini Rizal, Himmatur Rofikatul Maula Roisu Eny Mudawaroch Rosyidy, Muhamad Khairul Roziana Roziana, Roziana Saepurohman, Aep Semedi, Jarot Mulyo Shintiani, Selly Shofy, Yuny Fikriyah Siti Nur Hasanah, Siti Nur Slamet Riyanto Sobirin Sobirin Solihat, Nia Kurnia Sri, Tovani subur subur Suhartini Ismail, Suhartini Sunukanto, V S Supriatna, Supriatna, Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia Supriyatin, Tabah Suseno, Aji suswati suswati Sutikno Sutikno Sutrisno, Sutrisno Tampubolon, Stefanus Binoto Tri, Indra Gaya Triraharjo, Bambang Ulumuddin, Imam Khoirul Veronica, Kiki Winda Vianita, Etna Wahyudi, Edi Wahyul Amien Syafei WARDAH, ZAHROTUL Whisnumurti Adhiwibowo Widiastuti, Rastika Wiranjaya, I Wayan Satryadi Yoga Dwi Putra, I Kadek Yulia, Nunung Z, M Abdul Fatah Z, Muhammad Abdul Fatah Zahro, Haura