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Journal : Jurnal GAMMA-PI

 1 
Peramalan Produksi Padi di Kota Padang Dengan Metode ARIMA Putri Nabila; Saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 2 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i2.9315

Abstract

Padang City, as one of the centers of economic growth in the region, has its own challenges and opportunities in managing rice production. Factors such as weather conditions, agricultural technology, and government policies can influence rice production. Therefore, using the ARIMA method can help related parties to respond to changing conditions more quickly and effectively. This research aims to apply the ARIMA method in predicting rice production in Padang City. By identifying historical patterns of rice production, it is hoped that patterns can be found that can be used as a basis for predicting future production. It is hoped that the results of this research can contribute to increasing the efficiency of rice production and supporting food security in this city. The data research method used in this research is monthly data on the amount of rice production in Padang City (in tons). Data on the amount of rice production was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study focuses on rice production results in Padang City by utilizing rice production data from 2018 to 2022. The method applied in this research is the ARIMA method. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) is the best ARIMA model with the smallest MAPE value, namely 99% for forecasting rice production in Padang City. From the table of forecasting results, rice production in the city of Padang in 2023 is highest in December, namely 9.295 and the lowest in February, namely -39.0994. The forecast results are lower than the amount of rice production from the previous year.
Co-Authors Achmad Masfi Aditya, Ronal Surya Afrahul Fadhila Daulay Afrahul Fadila Daulai Agustin, Nely Ahmad Ahmad Muchlis Ahmad Tamrin Sikumbang Anggi Dian Safitri Arief Yandra Putra Asiah Ramadhani Asmadia, Asmadia Bella Nafisah Belly Lestari Budi Budi Busyra Azheri Cahyo Pramono Daspar Dermawan Wijaya Harahap Dessy Amelia Dewi Fatimah Putri Maulidah Dewi Melinda Hutabarat Dini Agesti Siregar Diva Ananda Alifia Eri Yanuar Akhmad Budi Sunaryo Ervizal A.M. Zuhud Fadhil Fadhlur Rohman Fadilla Murni Fahirah Mayangsari Fatima Az-Zahra Fatimah Zahara Filaila Dekautsar Firman Patawari Fitria Rahmadani Gematullah Gematullah Hermawan, Rachmad Hidayati Hilyatul Hifziah Iman Putra Jaya Hulu Irwan Nopian Sinaga Ismunandar Jesika Natalia Lili Kurniasih Lucky Saputra M. Fahri M. Hafiz Alfiandi M.Fahri Maergy Putri Lianti Masayu Alifah Saznabila Meity Suryandari MIFTAHUL JANNAH Mochammad Faiz Agil Nurfikri Mufidatul Husna Muh Asral Muh Aulan Iqran Muh. Asral Muh. Aulan Iqran Muhamad Firdaus muhamad ilham fhatona Muhammad Akbar Muhammad Al Fazri Muhammad Angga Syahputra Muhammad Ilham Fhatona Muhammad Isa Asyrofuddin Muhammad Putra Ramadhan Muhd. Arief Al Husaini Mutiara Andini Naila Risfa Nasution, Ahmad Rizki Marganti Nayla Risva Nesi Putri Sari Ninda Desiani Tridewi Nurfadillah.s Nurma Afiani Nurul Evi Nurul Ulmi Ovriyadin Ovriyadin Qory Tifani Rahmatika Rahmad Efendy Rahmad Yandi Madani Rahmah Rihhadatul ‘Aisy Ratna Ratna Ashary Raymond Fransiscus Rena, Syahidah Rendy Ardiansyah ReshiHadriyahrahmadana Reski Lukman Reski Ramadani Rikasari Rindy Ayu Lestari Rio Irawan Munthe Riska Yanti Risma Situmorang Rismawati Rivaldo Saragih Rizki Rahmayanti Roma Ito Aruan Roma Pasaribu Ryan Aulia Amanda Sabriyati, Deni Salsabila Azzahra Haryu Putri Saumi, Fazrina Selviani Sendi Al Fadil Sepritabili Sepritabili Sepriyan Pangestu Septianingrum, Gita Ayu Ajeng Sifa Qorita Aeni SITI FAUZIYAH NUR Siti Misharyani Siti Nurhayati Sry Unihartati Saogo Suci Syahrawani Sugiarto, Dinta Suherdi Sulfiana Susilo Ragel Setiawan Suwandi Taqwa Tasdin Tahrim Utin Desy Susiaty Velvi Thiana Anasky Widjayanti, Yhenti Wilda Aliestutianda Winata ardiana Yesi " Yudhanto Satyagraha Adiputra Yuni Awaliyah Yusuf Ali Zulmahdi herli