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Ahmar, Ansari Saleh
Department Of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, 90223, Makassar, Indonesia
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Optimalisasi Peran Mahasiswa KKN dalam Mendukung Pembangunan Desa Berbasis Potensi Lokal Hastuty Hastuty; Rusli Rusli; Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Andika Saputra
Panrannuangku Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi dan Rekayasa, Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/panrannuangku4358

Abstract

Kuliah Kerja Nyata (KKN) merupakan bentuk nyata pengabdian mahasiswa yang berfungsi menjembatani ilmu pengetahuan perguruan tinggi dengan realitas kehidupan masyarakat, khususnya di desa, serta menjadi strategi penting dalam mendukung pembangunan desa berkelanjutan. Artikel ini membahas upaya optimalisasi peran mahasiswa KKN di Kelurahan Lemoe, Kecamatan Bacukiki, Kota Parepare, dengan fokus pada pemanfaatan potensi lokal. Pelaksanaan KKN dimulai dengan tahap observasi, dilanjutkan dengan presentasi di hadapan Dosen Pembimbing Lapangan (DPL), aparat kelurahan, dan tokoh masyarakat. Program kerja mahasiswa difokuskan pada tiga aspek utama. Pertama, digitalisasi desa melalui pengembangan Website Kelurahan Lemoe. Kedua, pengembangan produk lokal, berupa inovasi olahan daun kelor menjadi Snack Bar Bergizi serta pemanfaatan jambu mete, menjadi Selai Jambu Mete. Ketiga, program kemasyarakatan, mencakup sosialisasi “Lingkungan Sekolah Sehat Bebas Perundungan”, seminar hukum bertema “Kenali dan Identifikasi Tanahmu”, serta berbagai kegiatan sosial seperti senam bersama dan partisipasi dalam perayaan 17 Agustus. Hasil dari pelaksanaan KKN ini memberikan kontribusi nyata berupa peningkatan kapasitas aparatur kelurahan dan masyarakat, serta melahirkan produk bernilai ekonomi berbasis potensi lokal. Dengan adanya dukungan penuh dari aparat kelurahan serta partisipasi aktif masyarakat, KKN berfungsi sebagai sarana pengabdian yang adaptif, inovatif, dan berkelanjutan, sekaligus memperkuat daya saing desa berbasis sumber daya yang dimilikinya.
Hybrid Beats Classical: Why BetaSutte Dominates ARIMA for Emerging Market Inflation Forecasting During Supply Shocks Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation Vol. 5 No. 6 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku4836

Abstract

This study demonstrates that hybrid trend-decomposition forecasting (BetaSutte) substantially outperforms classical ARIMA(1,1,1) methods for inflation prediction in emerging markets experiencing supply-shock-driven regime changes. Using Indonesian central bank inflation data spanning September 2021 through October 2024 (50 monthly observations), we partition the sample into 40 in-sample training observations (capturing the Russia-Ukraine supply shock peak of August 2022 at 7.71% and its policy-driven deflation) and 10 out-of-sample evaluation observations (January–October 2024, the critical disinflation recovery phase). BetaSutte achieves out-of-sample RMSE of 0.3516% compared to ARIMA's 0.5377%—a 34.6% reduction in forecast error. Critically, while BetaSutte's in-sample RMSE is 1.73× larger than ARIMA's (4.01 vs. 2.32), this apparent weakness reflects superior generalization: the model deliberately prioritizes trend signal extraction over training-data fitting, discarding noise to minimize out-of-sample prediction errors. The reversal from inferior in-sample to dominant out-of-sample performance is a defining characteristic of parsimonious hybrid methods operating under structural breaks. We attribute BetaSutte's superiority to its explicit decomposition of trend and transitory components, which captures the nonstationary deflation path better than ARIMA's differencing-based approach when regime transitions occur. Policy implications are substantial: central banks targeting inflation via published rate paths can improve forecast-based monetary decisions by adopting hybrid methods. This finding challenges the conventional dominance of ARIMA in finance and economics applications and suggests that emerging market policymakers should evaluate model choice based on out-of-sample rather than in-sample metrics when designing inflation forecasts. The paper provides empirical evidence for the bias-variance trade-off in time-series model selection and offers a practical methodology applicable to commodity-dependent central banks worldwide.
Co-Authors - Asmar Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman Abdussakir Abdussakir Absussakir Abdussakir Achmad Sani Supriyanto Agung Tri Utomo Agung Tri Utomo Agus Nasir Ahmad Rifad Riadhi Ahmad Talib Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Akbar Iskandar Alfairus, Muh. Qodri Ali Mokhtar Alief Imron Juliodinata Alok Kumar Panday Alsa, Yudhistira Ananda Andika Isma ANDIKA SAPUTRA Andika Saputra Andika Saputra Anggreni, Afrillia Annas, Suwardi Asfar Asmar Asmar, Asmar Astuti, Niken Probondani Aswi, Aswi Ayu Rahayu Azzajjad, Muhammad Fath Boj del Val, Eva Boj, Eva Botto-Tobar, Miguel Bustan, M Nadjib Cadena, Angela Diaz Dary Mochamad Rifqie Della Fadhilatunisa Dewi Fatmarani Surianto Dewi Satria Ahmar Djawad, Yasser Abd. Dunggio, Anugra S. S. Ersa Karwingsi Eva Boj Faizal Arya Samman Fathahillah Fathahillah Halim, Patmawati Hamzah Upu Hardianti Hafid Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Hastuty Musa Herman Herman Hidayat M., Wahyu Ifriana, Ifriana Ilimu, Edi Irwan Irwan Irwan Irwan Isma Muthahharah Izabi, Muh. Basyar Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Kamaluddin Kamaluddin Kasmudin Mustapa Khadijah Khadijah Khaeruddin Khaeruddin Kusmaladewi Kusmaladewi Lince, Ranak M. Miftach Fakhri Magfirah Manalu, Yessi Febianti Mansyur Mansyur Marni Marni, Marni Meliyana R, Sitti Masyitah Miguel Botto-Tobar Misriani Suardin Mohd. Rizal Mohd. Isa Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Abdy Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Farhan Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muhammad Nadjib Bustan Muhammad Nadjib Bustan Muhammad Nusrang Muhammad Nusrang Muliadi N. Nurahdawati Nachnoer Arss Nasrul Ihsan Niken Probondani Astuti Novi Afryanthi S. Nur Anisa Nurdin Arsyad, Nurdin Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich Patmasari, Andi Poerwanto, Bobby Purnama Ningsih R. Ruliana R. Rusli R. Rusli Raden Mohamad Herdian Bhakti Rahman, Abdul Rahman, Muhammad Fatur Rahmat H.S Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Hidayat Rais, Zulkifli Rajesh Kumar Ramli Umar Riny Jefri Rizal Bakri Robbi Rahim Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Ruliana Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rusli Rustam, R. Rustam, Sitti Nailah Sahid Salim Al Idrus Salim Al Idrus Salsabila, Nurul Khofifah Sapto Haryoko Shofiyah Al Idrus Singh, Pawan Kumar Siswahyudianto Siti Nurazizah Auliah Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sitti Rahmawati Sobirov, Bobur Sri Hastuti Virgianti Pulukadang Sri Muliani, Sri Sriwahyuni, Andi Ayu Suci Lestari Sutamrin, Sutamrin Suwardi Annas Suwardi Annas Syafruddin Side Tabash, Mosab Tonio, Sarinah Emilia Tri Santoso Triutomo, Agung Utomo, Agung Tri Wahab, Zamil wahyuni wahyuni Yunus, Asmar Zakiyah Mar'ah Zakiyah Mar'ah Zulkifli Rais