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All Journal Media Wisata IJIET (International Journal of Indonesian Education and Teaching) Al Ishlah Jurnal Pendidikan JOURNAL OF INFORMATICS AND TELECOMMUNICATION ENGINEERING JURNAL MEDIA INFORMATIKA BUDIDARMA KOMIK (Konferensi Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer) The IJICS (International Journal of Informatics and Computer Science) JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH MUHARRIK: JURNAL DAKWAH DAN SOSIAL Journal of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Jurnal Christian Humaniora Journal of Computer Science, Information Technology and Telecommunication Engineering (JCoSITTE) Sustainable: Jurnal Kajian Mutu Pendidikan Jurnal Minfo Polgan (JMP) Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bestari (JPMB) Pustaka: Jurnal Bahasa dan Pendidikan Jurnal Riset Rumpun Agama dan Filsafat Lumen: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama, Katekese dan Pastoral Simpati: Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan dan Bahasa Jurnal Pendidikan Agama dan Teologi Jurnal Sadewa: Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Pembelajaran dan Ilmu Sosial Jurnal Yudistira Student Research Journal Jurnal Teologi Injili dan Pendidikan Agama Jurnal Magistra Pendekar: Jurnal Pendidikan Berkarakter Coram Mundo: Jurnal Teologi dan Pendidikan Agama Kristen IJETH Jurnal Budi Pekerti Agama Kristen dan Katolik Tri Tunggal: Jurnal Pendidikan Kristen dan Katolik Jurnal Pendidikan Agama dan Teologi
Frainskoy Rio Naibaho
Institut Agama Kristen Negeri Tarutung
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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MODEL PERAMALAN TIME SERIES PREDIKSI MINAT MAHASISWA MENGGUNAKAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Manalu, Samuel Carlos A.; Aisyah, Siti; Malau, Livia Grace; Manurung, Clara Sinta Uly; Situngkir, Steven Hikari Hoshi; Naibaho, Frainskoy Rio; Agus, Raja Tama Andri; Amalia, Amalia; Radhi, Muhammad
JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Vol 9, No 1 (2026): February 2026
Publisher : Smart Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54314/jssr.v9i1.5876

Abstract

Abstract : Changes in prospective students interest in majors university occur dynamically over time, requiring a forecasting method capable of accurately predicting interest trends. This study aims to apply the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to predict the number of prospective students. The research employs a quantitative descriptive-analytical approach using secondary data on student interest from 2023 to 2025. The forecasting process is conducted using smoothing parameters for level (α) and trend (β), both set at 0.9. Furthermore, the accuracy of the forecasting model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the Double Exponential Smoothing method is effective in capturing the downward trend in student interest. The forecasted number of prospective students for 2026 is estimated at 462 students. Accuracy evaluation yields a MAD value of 98, an MSE of 19,208, and a MAPE of 18.63%, indicating that the forecasting error remains within an acceptable range. Therefore, the results of this study can be used as a supporting basis for strategic decision-making in planning new student admissions, strengthening promotional strategies, and managing academic resources. Keywords: forecasting time series, Double Exponential Smoothing, prediction, Student. Abstrak: Perubahan minat calon mahasiswa terhadap jurusan di perguruan tinggi terjadi secara dinamis dari waktu ke waktu, sehingga diperlukan metode peramalan yang mampu memprediksi tren peminatan secara akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) dalam memprediksi jumlah minat mahasiswa. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif analitis dengan memanfaatkan data sekunder berupa jumlah minat mahasiswa pada tahun 2023–2025. Proses peramalan dilakukan dengan menggunakan parameter pemulusan level (α) dan tren (β) sebesar 0,9. Selanjutnya, tingkat akurasi model dievaluasi menggunakan ukuran kesalahan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode Double Exponential Smoothing dapat menangkap pola tren penurunan jumlah minat mahasiswa secara efektif. Nilai peramalan jumlah peminat pada tahun 2026 diperkirakan sebesar 462 orang. Evaluasi akurasi menghasilkan nilai MAD sebesar 98, MSE sebesar 19.208, dan MAPE sebesar 18,63%, yang menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kesalahan peramalan masih berada dalam batas yang dapat diterima. Dengan demikian, hasil penelitian ini dapat dijadikan sebagai salah satu dasar pendukung dalam pengambilan keputusan strategis terkait perencanaan penerimaan mahasiswa baru, penguatan promosi, serta pengelolaan sumber daya akademik. Kata Kunci: forecasting time series, Double Exponential Smoothing, prediksi,Mahasiswa
Pengaruh Model Pembelajaran Jigsaw Terhadap Keaktifan Belajar Pendidikan Agama Kristen Siswa Kelas XI SMA Swasta HKBP 2 Tarutung Tahun Pembelajaran 2023/2024 Jeremia J. Hutajulu; Dorlan Naibaho; Frainskoy Rio Naibaho; Tiurma Barasa; Sabar Rudi Sitompul
Jurnal Pendidikan Agama dan Teologi Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): Juni : Jurnal Pendidikan Agama dan Teologi
Publisher : International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59581/jpat-widyakarya.v2i2.3023

Abstract

The aim of this research is to determine the positive and significant influence of the Jigsaw learning model on the active learning of Christian Religious Education of class XI students at HKBP 2 Tarutung Private High School for the 2023/2024 academic year. The research method used is a quantitative method with inferential statistics. The population is all class Data was collected using a positive closed questionnaire with 42 items, namely 22 items for variable 2023/2024 learning, proven through the following data analysis: 1) Test the analysis requirements: a) positive relationship test obtained by the value rxy = 0.586 > rtable (=0.05,n=42) = 0.304. b) Testing a significant relationship obtained tcount= 4.572 > ttable(=0.05, dk=n-2=40)= 2.021. 2) Influence test: a) Regression equation test, obtained the regression equation =24,76+0,57X . b) Regression coefficient of determination test (r2) = 34.3%. 3) Test the hypothesis using the F test to obtain Fcount > Ftable=(=0.05, dk numerator k=22, dk denominator=n-2=42-2=40) namely 20.90 > 1.51. Thus Ha is accepted and H0 is rejected
Distributed cyber defense framework based on federated learning for attack detection in defense infrastructure Saragih, Hondor; Saragih, Hoga; Manurung, Jonson; Adha, Rochedi Idul; Naibaho, Frainskoy Rio
Journal of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Vol 9 No 1 (2026): March: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/idss.v9i1.346

Abstract

Cyber threats targeting defense infrastructure have escalated in complexity, rendering centralized intrusion detection systems insufficient due to their inability to guarantee data privacy across distributed military nodes. This study proposes a distributed cyber defense framework that employs federated learning to enable collaborative model training without transmitting raw network traffic beyond individual nodes. The framework integrates an adaptive aggregation strategy combining FedAvg and FedProx, a hybrid deep learning architecture consisting of convolutional neural networks and long short term memory networks, an autoencoder module for unsupervised anomaly detection, a Byzantine robust aggregation mechanism, and post hoc explainability through SHAP and LIME. Experiments were conducted on CIC IDS 2017, CIC IDS 2018, UNSW NB15, and a synthetically generated military network traffic dataset. The proposed framework attained a peak accuracy of 98.74% and an F1 score of 98.12% on CIC IDS 2017, consistently outperforming five baseline methods by up to 5.29 percentage points in F1 score. Future work will investigate differential privacy integration and model compression for deployment on resource constrained tactical edge devices.
Pengaruh Model Pembelajaran PAIKEM Terhadap Motivasi Belajar Pendidikan Agama Kristen dan Budi Pekerti siswa kelas XI SMA N 1 Parlilitan Tahun Ajaran 2023/2024 Ellida Lusiva Hasugian; Boho Parulian Pardede; Raikhapoor Raikhapoor; Meditatio Situmorang; Frainskoy Rio Naibaho
Simpati Vol. 2 No. 4 (2024): Oktober : Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan dan Bahasa
Publisher : CV. Alim's Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59024/simpati.v2i4.940

Abstract

The research aims to find out how much influence the model hasPAIKEM learning towards learning motivation for Christian Religious Education andCharacteristics of class XI students of SMA Negeri 1 Parlilitan for the 2023/2024 academic year. The research hypothesis is that there is a positive and significant influence between PAIKEM learning model on motivation to learn Religious Education Christianity and Character, Class XI students of SMA Negeri 1 Parlilitan, Academic Year 2023/2024. Descriptive and inferential quantitative research methods. Whole population Class XI students of SMA Negeri 1 Parlilitan for the 2023/2024 academic year who are religious There are 150 Protestant Christians. Random samples (random sampling) namely 25% of the total population, namely 38 people. The research instrument is: closed questionnaire. The results of data analysis obtained: a) rcount = 0.554> rtable = 0.320 and tcount=3.993>ttable=2.02809 shows that there is a positive relationship and significant relationship between the PAIKEM learning model and learning motivation Christian Religious Education and Character Education for class XI students of SMA Negeri 1Parlilitan Academic Year 2023/2024. b) Regression equation Y  25.88 0.404X c) The determination test revealed that the magnitude of the effect was 30.69%. d) Hypothesis test is obtained Fcount=15.933>Ftable=3.23 then H0 is rejected and Ha is accepted. Research concludes that there is a positive and significant influence between the PAIKEM learning model and educational learning motivation Christian Religion and Character, Class XI students of SMA Negeri 1 Parlilitan Tahun Teachings 2023/2024.
Pengaruh Implementasi Metode Outdoor Study Terhadap Hasil Belajar Pendidikan Agama Kristen Dan Budi Pekerti Peserta Didik Kelas X Semester Ganjil SMA Negeri 1 Tampahan Tahun Pembelajaran 2023/2024 Bella D.O Lumbantoruan; Hasudungan Simatupang; Andrianus Nababan; Frainskoy Rio Naibaho; Baginda Sitompul
Coram Mundo: Jurnal Teologi dan Pendidikan Agama Kristen Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023): Coram Mundo : Jurnal Teologi dan Pendidikan Agama Kristen
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Teologi Injili Arastamar (SETIA) Ngabang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/corammundo.v5i2.217

Abstract

This research aims to determine the positive and significant influence of the implementation of the outdoor study method on the learning outcomes of Christian religious education and character education for class X odd semester students at SMA Negeri 1 Tampahan for the 2023/2024 academic year. The hypothesis of this research is that there is a positive and significant influence from the implementation of the outdoor study method on the learning outcomes of Christian religious education and character education for class X odd semester students at SMA Negeri 1 Tampahan for the 2023/2024 academic year. This research uses quantitative research methods with descriptive statistics. The population of this study was 40 people so it is called population research. The instruments in this research were a closed questionnaire for variable X and a multiple choice written test for variable Y. There is a positive and significant influence of the implementation of the outdoor study method on the learning outcomes of Christian religious education and character education for class X odd semester students at SMA Negeri 1 Tampahan for the 2023/2024 academic year, namely rcount > rtable (0463>0.312), tcount > ttable (3.220 > 2.021), Y ̂="56.22"+0.38X, r2 = 21.4%. So the hypothesis test states that Ha is accepted, namely that there is a positive and significant influence of the implementation of the outdoor study method on the learning outcomes of Christian religious education and character education for class X odd semester students at SMA Negeri 1 Tampahan for the 2023/2024 academic year.
Co-Authors Adha, Rochedi Idul Agus, Raja Tama Andri Al Khowarizmi Aleyda Azaria Panggabean Amalia Amalia Andrianus Nababan Andrianus Nababan Asrita Anggina Sinaga Baginda Sitompul Bella D.O Lumbantoruan Beni Fernando Sihotang Binur Panjaitan Boho Parulian Pardede Boho Parulian Pardede Br Manullang, Endang Juliati Christ August Trinity P Ellida Lusiva Hasugian Elvri T. Simbolon Emmi Silvia Herlina Exaudi Dian Mayawie Napitupulu Eyani Sisilia Simbolon Goklas J. Manalu Goklas J. Manalu Hasudungan Simatupang Hasudungan Simatupang Hisardo Sitorus Hoga Saragih Hondor Saragih Imelda Siahaan Jeremia J. Hutajulu Johari Manik Jungjungan Simorangkir Lasmaria Lumban Tobing Lasmaria Lumbantobing Lastri Novia Sitompul Lely Fitri Hasibuan Lenti Hutagalung Liana Limbong Liha Sari Nadeak Limmarten Simatupang Lince R.T Simamora Lumbantobing, Roida Lustani Samosir Mahardika Abdi Prawira Tanjung Malani Simanungkalit Malau, Livia Grace Manalu, Samuel Carlos A. Manurung, Clara Sinta Uly Manurung, Jonson Maria Widiastuti Maria Widiastuti Maringan Sinambela Masniar H. Sitorus Meditatio Situmorang Monica Anastasia Magdalena Rajagukguk Nababan, Junerdi Nidya Banuari Nopitasari Simamora Nurelni Limbong Oloria Malau Ordekoria Saragih Panggabean, Erika Christine Panggabean, Jonas Franky Rudianto Pasaribu, Sutrisno Arianto Priska Silaban Radhi, Muhammad Raikhapoor Raikhapoor Raikhapoor Raikhapoor Rawatri Sitanggang Rida Gultom Rido Widyawati Sianturi Rinaldi Sihotang Risden Anakampun Risma Nainggolan Roida Lumbanttobing Rusmauli Simbolon Rusmauli Simbolon SABAR RUDI SITOMPUL Sabda Lestari Berutu Selvia Novalina Marpaung Senida Harefa Senida Harefa Sihombing, Robinhot Silalahi, Maryska Debora Simbolon, Elvri Teresia Simion D Harianja Sinta Sinaga Sirait, Kamson Siti Aisyah Sitio, Robert Juni Tua Situngkir, Steven Hikari Hoshi Sri Rezeki Jelita Rajagukguk Tahadodo Waruwu Taripar Aripin Samosir Theodora, Eka Martyna Tianggur Medi Napitupulu Tio Minar Panjaitan Tiurma Barasa Tiurma Barasa Warseto Freddy Sihombing Wensdy Sitindaon Wilson Simanjuntak Yesi Asmita Sitohang