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Journal : International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS)

The accuracy of forecasting results of the Box-Jenkins method for time series analysis on the number of pneumonia patients Radhiah, Sitti; Fakhri, Muhammad Miftach; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Rosidah, Rosidah; Fadhilatunisa, Della; Arifiyanti, Fitria; Soeharto, Soeharto; Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto
International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS) Vol 12, No 4: December 2023
Publisher : Intelektual Pustaka Media Utama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijphs.v12i4.22961

Abstract

This study was quantitative with a non-reactive or unobstructed approach using Time Series analysis with the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method on secondary data. From secondary data, 1, 3, and 6 monthly data simulations were carried out. Each simulation data was divided into two groups: the first group of initialization data for 2016 – 2019 and the second group of actual data for 2020. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of forecasting results using the Box- Jenkins method on the number of pneumonia sufferers at Kamonji Public Health Center, Palu. The 1-monthly data simulation amounted to 48-time series as initialization data, obtained the appropriate forecasting model, namely ARIMA (1,1,1), then forecasting was done, and the results obtained were 289,166 patients with pneumonia. There are 16-time series simulations for 3-monthly data as initialization data and 6-monthly simulations totaling two-time series for initialization data, not finding a suitable model for forecasting. In conclusion, no data simulation gets the right result on the number of pneumonia sufferers because it gets more forecasting results than the actual data. Suggestions that can be given in this research are to use data that is more than five years old.
Co-Authors - Sukir Abdul Haris Odja Abdul Wahid Adi Suhendra, Adi Adiba, Fhatiah Afandi Afandi Afrizan, Afrizan Agusnaya, Nurrahmah Akbar, Muh. Amukune, Stephen Andari, Tania Andi Baso Kaswar Andi Baso Kaswar Angraini, Mila Rosa Ariati Dina Puspitasari, Ariati Dina Arifiyanti, Fitria Asri Arbie Astriani, Devi Buhungo, Trisnawaty Junus Chairatul Umamah Dadan Rosana Daryono, Rihab Wit Della Fadhilatunisa Dewantara, Jagad Aditya Dewi Fatmarani Surianto Didi Sundiman Edi Istiyono Efriani Efriani Eka Murdani, Eka el indahnia kamariyah, el indahnia Eri Sarimanah FARADILLA, FARADILLA Fardan, Muhammad Farida Anastika Fathahillah Fathahillah Figiati Indra Dewi HANDITYA, BINOV Hidayat M, Wahyu Hidayat, Sri Wiyanti I Made Supatra Indah Widowati Irwandani Irwandani Iwan Suhardi Jahja, Mohamad Jumadi Jumadi Kurniasti, Rosi Arde Kurniawan, Muhammad Hafiz Lavicza, Zsolt M. Miftach Fakhri Maemunah Maftukhin Maimon Sumo Moh. Irma Sukarelawan Muhammad Aridan Muhammad Fajar B Muhammad Ibrahim Muhammad Nurtanto Mursidi, Andi Nanda Khoirunisa, Nanda Narwoto Narwoto NIRMALA, PUTRI Novitasari, Dyah Ayu Nugraheni, Tyas Ayu Nur Endah Susilowati Nurhidayah, Rizka Nurul, Muhamad Purwoko, Agus Putu Sudira Ramadhanti, Anissa Riki Perdana Rini Setyowati, Rini Riwayani, Riwayani Robby, Uchaimid Biridlo'i Roni Suhartono Rosidah Rosidah Roy Efendi, Roy Ruhban Masykur Sanatang Saputri, Niken Dwi Sihaloho, Nahot Tua Parlindungan Sitti Radhiah Soenarto Soenarto Somae, Erik Tauvani Suhendra Suhendra Sulistyarini, Sulistyarini Sumarwoto Sumarwoto Supahar, Supahar Syafutri, Ridha Tahmid Sabri ting, i-hsien Toni Kus Indratno Ulaya Ahdiani Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto Wardatul Djannah Widayanto, Luthfi Dhimas Wiwiek Afifah Wulandari, Fajar