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Henderi .
Raharja University
Aerospace Engineering Humanities Automotive Engineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Neuroscience Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : International Journal for Applied Information Management

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Comparative Study of Traditional and Modern Models in Time Series Forecasting for Inflation Prediction Henderi, Henderi; Sofiana, Sofa
International Journal for Applied Information Management Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Regular Issue: September 2025
Publisher : Bright Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/ijaim.v5i3.108

Abstract

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in economic analysis, particularly in anticipating inflation and policy planning. This study compares the performance of seven different time series forecasting models, namely ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, Prophet, LSTM, XGBoost, and TCN, in predicting inflation rates. Each model was applied to four years of inflation data to test its accuracy and reliability. The evaluation was conducted using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to measure the performance of each model. The results indicate that deep learning models, particularly LSTM and TCN, achieved the highest accuracy with the lowest MSE and RMSE values, specifically 0.0008 and 0.0015 for LSTM, and 0.0007 and 0.0013 for TCN, indicating their capability in capturing complex temporal patterns. Traditional models such as ARIMA and SARIMA, while effective in capturing trends and seasonality, showed limitations in handling non-linear patterns and sudden changes, with MSE and RMSE values of 0.0012 and 0.0024 for ARIMA, and 0.0011 and 0.0023 for SARIMA, respectively. ETS, with the highest MSE and RMSE values of 0.0013 and 0.0025, demonstrated limitations in dealing with the complexity of inflation data. XGBoost also showed good performance with MSE and RMSE values of 0.0009 and 0.0018, combining flexibility and robustness in handling complex data. Prophet achieved an MSE of 0.0010 and RMSE of 0.0020, indicating that while it effectively captures seasonal trends, there is room for improvement in handling rapid inflation increases. This research provides in-depth insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each model, as well as recommendations for practical applications in inflation forecasting. By presenting a comprehensive comparative analysis, this study aims to assist researchers and practitioners in selecting the most suitable forecasting model for their specific needs
Co-Authors Abas Sunarya Achmad Badrianto Adi Setiawan Aditya Prihantara Agung Yudo Ardianto Ahmad Sidik Ainiyatul Maghfiroh Akmal Fauzan Al- Bahra Alda Galuh Fitria Dewi Aldi Destaryana Ali Djamhuri Alwan Hibatullah Andang Wijanarko Andrian Saputra Andrie Prajanueri Kristianto Anggrahini, Yunia Riska Anindita Septiarini, Anindita Ar Ridho Gusti Ari Ari Suhartanto Ari Suhartanto Arie Afriyoga Arief Setyanto Arif, Achmad Yusron Arifin, Rita Wahyu Aris Martono Ary Budi Warsito Asep Saefullah Asro, Asro B. Herawan Hayadi Badrianto, Achmad Bambang Soedijono W.A Bambang Soedijono, Bambang Bambang Soedjiono W.A Bangun Mukti Prasetyo Bin Ladjamudin, Al Bahra Bramantyo Yudi Wardhana Budiarto, Mukti Destyanto, Febrian Devi Rositawati Dewi, Deshinta Arrova Dian Mustika Putri Didi Rahmat Didik Setiyadi Dwinda Etika Profesi Efana Rahwanto Efana Rahwanto Ema Utami Euis Nurninawati Euis Siti Nur Aisyah Fahmie Al Khudhorie Fata Nidaul Khasanah Fazlul Rahman Fifit Alfiah Fitria Nursetianingsih Frama Yenti Giandari Maulani, Giandari Gugun Gunawan Gunawan, Deddy Gutama, Deden Hardan Haekal Simangunsong, Fikri Muhammad Hamdani Hamdani Hamdy Hady Hari Agustiyo Hatta, Heliza Rahmania Husein Muhammad Fahrezy Husni Teja Sukmana I Ketut Gunawan Ignatius Agus Supriyono Ilham Hizbuloh Ina Sholihah Widiati, Ina Sholihah Indri Handayani Indri Handayani Ira Tyas Ningrum Irwan Sembiring Ismail, Abdul Azim Bin Iwan Setyawan Jahiri, Muhamad Jahri, Muhamad Jamaludin, Dieng Asep Julia Kurniasih Junaidi Junaidi Junaidi Junaidi Kartawinata, Dea Karunia Suci Lestari Khairunnisak Nur Isnaini Khurotul Aeni, Khurotul Kurniawan, Tri Basuki Kusrini - Kusrini . Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Kusrini Ladjamudin, Al-Bahra bin Ladjamudin, AlBahra Bin M Rizeki Yuda Saputra M Said Hasibuan M. Rizeki Yuda Saputra M. Suyanto, M. Maimunah Maimunah Maimunah, Maimunah Mashal Alqudah Maulidina, Muhammad Muflih Meta Amalia Dewi Moenawar Kholil Moh Muhtarom Mohammad Hairidzulhi Mohammad Santosa Mulyo Diningrat Muhamad Hendri Muhamad Yusuf Muhamad Yusup Mujianto, Ahmad Heru Mulyana, Muhamad Mulyati Mulyati Mulyati Mulyati Muntasir, Ibnu Nathan, Yogeswaran Neno, Friden Elefri Nia Kusniawati Novi Cholisoh Nugraha, Rizal Fitrah Nur Aisyah, Euis Siti Nur Azizah Padeli Padeli Periasamy, Jeyarani Pipin Romansyah Po Abas Sunarya Prabowo Pudjo Widodo Praditya Aliftiar Pramono, Galih Prih Diantono Abda`u Puspitasari, Novianti Putri, Cheetah Savana Qory Oktisa Aulia Rafika, Ageng Setiani Rahma Farah Ningrum Rahmat, Didi Rahwanto, Efana Raja, Berisno Hendro Pardamean Manik Randy Andrian Rani Putri Merliasari Rano Kurniawan Restu Adi Pradana Riki Mardiana Rita Wahyuni Arifin Ruli Supriati, Ruli Safar Dwi Kurniawan Saputra, M Rizeki Yuda Saputra, M. Rizeki Yuda Setianto, Yuni Ambar Shofiyul millah Singh, Harprith Kaur Rajinder Siti Khodijah Siti Ria Zuliana Siti Risma Auliasari Sofiana, Sofa Sri Rahayu Sudaryono Sudaryono Sudaryono Sudaryono Sugeng Santoso Suharto - Sulaiman, Agus Sutami, Sutami Suyatno Suyatno Swastika, Rulin Syahrial Shaddiq Taufik Hidayat Theopillus J. H. Wellem Toga Parlindungan Silaen Tri Wahyuningsih Tri Wahyuningsih Tri Wahyuningsih Tubagus Ahmad Harja Kusuma Umdatur Rosyidah Uning Lestari Untung Rahardja Viola Tashya Devana W, Bambang Soedijono Winarno Winarno Winarno Winarno Wing Wahyu Winarno Yeni Nuraeni Yulika Ayu Rantama Yuni Ambar S Yunia Riska Anggrahini Yusuf, Inayatul Izzati Diana Zakaria, Mohd Zaki Zcull, Harph