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Design of an integrated forecasting and scheduling model for power plants to balance solar and wind energy variability using real-time weather data Syafii Syafii; Novizon Novizon; Imra Nur Izrillah
International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) Vol 17, No 3: September 2026
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijpeds.v17.i3.pp2112-2126

Abstract

The integration of variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind creates challenges for power system stability and operational scheduling due to their intermittent characteristics. This study proposes an integrated forecasting and scheduling framework using real-time weather data for a hybrid renewable power system consisting of photovoltaic, wind, geothermal, and hydropower plants. Solar irradiance and wind speed data were collected using pyranometer and anemometer sensors and modeled using ARIMA for 24-hour-ahead forecasting. Based on AIC and BIC evaluation, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) were selected for solar irradiance and wind speed forecasting, respectively. The forecasting results achieved MAPE values of 18.43% for solar irradiance and 14.12% for wind speed. The forecasted renewable outputs were integrated into a generation scheduling model, where geothermal power operated as a base-load unit and hydropower acted as a balancing source. The proposed scheduling strategy was evaluated through a 24-hour Newton-Raphson load flow simulation. Results showed that system power losses remained below 2% and bus voltage levels were maintained within acceptable limits, demonstrating reliable operation under fluctuating weather conditions.
Co-Authors ., Cahayahati ., Delima ., Erliwati ., Kamshory Abadi, Akbar Aditio Pribadi, Rizki Adrianti Adrianti Adrianti, Adrianti Agung W. Setiawan Agustin, Hanna Jenifer Akshar, Muh Alex, Taman Ali Basrah Pulungan Almoataz Youssef Abdelaziz Andi Pawawoi Andrivo Rusydi Arnawan Hasibuan Arya, Engla Harda Asrizal . Aswardi Aswardi Aulia . Aulia Aulia Axel Doriza Azhari Zakri , Azriyenni Azizah, Farah Azriyenni Azhari Zakri Azzahrah, Nadia Fatimah Baik Budi Beni Nugroho, Dionysius Benriwati Maharmi Budi Endarto Cahayahati . Chamdani Chamdani Dadan Ramdan Danas, Aidil Darmana, Ija Dawam Habibullah Dawam Habibullah Delima . Dian Noviandri Dina Maizana Dona Juliandri Edyan Noveri Elmiyasna Kimin Elysia Sholiha, Almira Rahma Endang Tri Wahyuni Erliwati . Fahreza, Rahmad Fajril Akbar Farah Azizah Fierda Nurany, Fierda Fikriyatullatifah, Anisa Fitriyan, Rahmawati Gumilar, Candra Gustia Harini Habib Satria Habib Satria Habibullah, Dawam Hanalde Andre Handayani, Mia Putri Hasdi Putra, Hasdi Hermansyah Hermansyah Herris Yamashika Herris Yamashika Heru Irianto Hidayatullah Ismail, Hidayatullah Ihcsan, Catur Maulana Ija Darmana Ika Putri, Kartika Ilham Cholid Ilhamdi Rusydi, Muhammad Imam Fauzi Ath Thaariq Imam Hidayat Usman Imra Nur Izrillah Imran, Maryam Ibnata Indrajaja, Nobella Indri Dayana Irfan El Fakhri Ita Merni Patulak Jaka Windarta Juliandri, Dona K. M. Nor K. M. Nor K. M. Nor Kamsidjo Budi Utomo Kamsory Kamsory, Kamsory Kartika Ika Putri Kartika Sri Kumala Sari Khin Moe Moe Kurniawan, Sulistyo Agung Dwi Kusnadi, Sekar Ayumeida Kusumawardhani, Hadwitya Handayani Laksono, Heru Dibyo Layrenshia, Belinda Leily Wustha Johar Leonanda, Benny Dwika Liambana, Junlianty Lovely Son, Lovely M Imran Hamid M. Yonggi Puriza Maharmi, Benriwati Marroh, Zahrotul Isti'anah Matalata, Hendi Maulidi, M. Alfi Meri Rahmania Mochammad Novendri S Moe, Khin Moe Mohammad Taufiq Hidayat Monice Monice Moranain Mungkin Muhammad Fadlan Siregar Muhammad Hadi Putra, Muhammad Hadi Muhammad Imran Hamid Muhammad Irwanto Muhammad Irwanto Muhammad Khahfi Zuhanda Muhammad Nasir Muhammad Nurdin Muhammad Ridha Fauzi Muhardika Muhardika Mumtazah, Lutfia Anis Muzamir Isa Nasir, Hikmah Afifah Nasir, Muhammad Nofri Dodi Noor Azahra, Anggraeni Novizon, Novizon Nur Izrillah, Imra Nurmarini, Eva Perdana Putra, Ilham Prihadini, Diana Purwadhi Purwadhi Putri, Lusi Ngestina Rahmad B.Y Syah Rahmad Fahreza Rahmawati Fitriyan Refdinal Nazir Ricky Maulana Ridwan, Ridwan Rindina Armysa Rizka Hadelina Roni Putra Rudi Salam Rudi Salam Rusydi, Muhammad Ilhamdi Salfikri, Iqbal Sapto Nisworo Since Yuliana Frans, Inggrid Slamet Raharjo Sugiono Sugiono Syah, Rahmad B. Y. Syah, Rahmad B.Y Syukri Yunus Syukron Al-Fajri Tahrir, Muhammad Thoriq Kurnia Agung Thoriq Kurnia Agung Veranita, Mira Wati Wati Wati Wati Wati Wati Wati, Wati Welly Yandi Welly Yandi Yandi, Welly Yona Mayura Yudi Arfan Yusdiansyah, Yusdiansyah Zahroni, Teguh Rizali Zarta, Abdul Rasyid Zulwisli .