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Journal : Scientific Journal of Informatics

Modified Mixed Effects Random Forest in Small Area Estimation Using PCA and Rotation Forest with Correlated Auxiliary Variables Ananda, Rizki; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Aidi, Muhammad Nur
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol. 11 No. 3: August 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v11i3.10633

Abstract

Purpose: The per capita expenditure data in Jambi Province, Indonesia have been plagued with severe multicollinearity problems. To address the issue, this study developed an effective small area estimation (SAE) method, which is essential for formulating comprehensive regional development policies in Jambi Province. By modifying the mixed effects random forest (MERF) method, we introduced PCA-MERF (which applies principal component analysis prior to MERF) and MERoF (which replaces the standard random forest with rotation forest) to handle multicollinearity more effectively. Data from the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) in March 2021 and Village Potential (PODES) in 2021 were utilized. The methods were evaluated using metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), coefficient of variation (CV), and their ability to capture random area effects. The random effect block (REB) bootstrap approach was employed to obtain MSE estimates for evaluating area-level estimate quality. Result: The results showed that MERoF outperformed both MERF and PCA-MERF, particularly in unit-level (village) estimation. Additionally, MERoF demonstrated superior capability in capturing variation between subdistricts compared to MERF and PCA-MERF. PCA-MERF performed better than MERF and MERoF at the area level (subdistrict). All three methods showed acceptable performance with RRMSE and CV values ranging between 8% and 10%, indicating precise and reliable predictions for per capita expenditure in small areas. These modifications to MERF prove effective and advantageous for small-area estimation in datasets with significant multicollinearity. Novelty: This research introduces a novel semi-parametric, tree-based SAE approach, enhancing the precision of per capita expenditure estimates and supporting more informative regional policy decisions, thus filling a gap in current SAE methodologies.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Addion Nizori AFIFAH, UMI Ahmad Fauzan Aisyah Aisyah Alayda, Nilmayati Aljannah, Fathimah Qotrunnada Ananda Nasution, M. Dolly Ananda, Rusydi Andini Putri, Andini Andriansah, Zjulpi Armansyah, A Arya Rudi Nasution Aulia, Naila Selvi Azhari, Faisal Budiyanto Budiyanto Chairul Anwar Dadang Dwi Septiyan, Dadang Dwi Dalimunthe, Putri Ani Dari, Fitri Wulan Deasy Kartika Rahayu Kuncoro Delvi Liani, Dea Desi, Desi Indriyani Dewi, Citra Septia Dian Septinova Donni Siregar, Meriah Romah Eldita, Sirda Eti Hadiati Fadhilaturrahmi Fadhilaturrahmi Fauzan Azima Fauzan Sulman Fitra Surya, Yenni Gasmi, Nur Hana Pebriana, Putri Hasibuan, Abdurrozzaq Hermini Susiatiningsih Hia, Tasya Bernatha Humaryanto, Humaryanto Hutasuhut, Nurul Inayah Huzni , Syifaul Iis Aprinawati, Iis Indra Daulay, Musnar Indra Lasmana Tarigan Iskandar Abdul Samad Jelita, Lusiana Kasturi, Rima Khaira Nova Khotimah, Husna Kimberly Febrina Kodrat Kusuma, Yanti Yandri Lase, Syarif Hidayat Lia Yuliati, Lia Lubis , ‪Riadini Wanty Madyawati Latief Maharani3, Wasima Agita Mardianti, Alaina Marisa, Vera Megiati, Yunita Endra Mhd Furqan Mufarizuddin Muhammad Nur Aidi Mursyid Djawas Nadiroh Napid, Suhardi Nasrul Nilawati Tadjuddin Nurhaswinda Nurhaswinda Pakpahan5, Rosinta Pasaribu, Ahmad Hamdani Patak, Andi Anto Prima Wahyu Titisari Purnama, Boby Yasman Putra, Arvindra Zaldi Putri Hana Pebriana Rahma Sari, Afriza Rahmadani, Dina Nuzila RAKASIWI, RANI Rani, Afriza Rahma Reyza Arief Taqwa, Muhammad Ria Pasaribu, Tio Ritonga, Dedi Prima Riza, Muhammad Syahrul Rizki Amalia Samidah Samosir, Nus Dencoco Seow, Eng Keng Sephia Ningsih, Tari Serasi Ginting, Budi Sinaga, Anastasia Siti Aisyah Siti Sarah Fitriani, Siti Sarah Sovia Mas Ayu Subuea, Siti Rahmah Suhela Putri Nasution Sumianto Sumianto Syahara, Usnaini Syahrio Tantalo Syahrul Rizal, Muhammad Syaiful Anwar Syamsul Rizal Tanjung, Iqbal Theresia Amelia Pawitra Utami, Wahyu Kartiko Vira, Alma Wasehudin, Wasehudin Wazzan, Huda Yana Cahyana Yandri Kusuma, Yanti Yulianingsih Yulianingsih