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Forecasting the Demand for Fast-Moving Spare Parts Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method: Peramalan Permintaan Sparepart Kategori Fast Moving Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Meirani Id’ha Khusainiah; Tedjo Sukmono
Indonesian Journal of Innovation Studies Vol. 25 No. 4 (2024): October
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

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Abstract

General Background Modern agricultural machinery distribution centers face significant operational hurdles in maintaining continuous supply chains. Specific Background At the central warehouse of PT Corin Mulia Gemilang (MAXXI) in Sidoarjo, stockouts of fast-moving spare parts such as bimo oil seal rollers directly disrupt production lines and delay distribution to regional branches. Knowledge Gap Although classification systems categorize inventory movement, conventional replenishment models frequently fail to account for stochastic demand trends in agricultural machine components. Aims This study evaluates dynamic time-series modeling to forecast monthly demand for bimo oil seal roller components from August to December 2024 using historical records spanning January 2022 to July 2024. Results Application of the Box-Jenkins methodology demonstrated that data achieved variance and mean stationarity following third-order power transformations and first-order differencing, establishing ARIMA(2,1,0) as the optimal predictive structure with the lowest Mean Square Error of 73.672. Forecasted demand for the five-month horizon yields 934 units in August, 909 units in September, 887 units in October, 914 units in November, and 906 units in December 2024. Novelty The research demonstrates that time-series modeling effectively captures non-stationary, stochastic demand patterns specifically tailored to agricultural spare part warehouse logistics without relying on exogenous variables. Implications Implementing ARIMA-based forecasting enables warehouse managers to prevent inventory shortages, optimize safety stock levels, and preserve customer satisfaction across national distribution channels. Key Findings Highlights The ARIMA(2,1,0) model was identified as the optimal time-series model for predicting bimo oil seal roller requirements due to achieving the lowest Mean Square Error of 73.672. Demands for fast-moving agricultural components exhibit stochastic trend behaviors that require first-order differencing and power transformation to achieve statistical stationarity. Monthly demand projections for August through December 2024 remain relatively steady within the range of 887 to 934 units, indicating time-independent fluctuations. Keywords : Arima Model, Spare Parts, Inventory Forecasting, Warehouse Logistics, Fast Moving Items
Scheduling Machine Maintenance at the Krembung Sugar Factory Using the Reliability Centered Maintenance Method: Penjadwalan Perawatan Mesin Pada Stasiun Dipabrik Gula Krembung Dengan Menggunakan Metode Reliability Centered Maintenance Mohammad Nabil Makarim; Tedjo Sukmono
Procedia of Engineering and Life Science Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Proceedings of the 9th Seminar Nasional Sains 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/pels.v10i1.3104

Abstract

General Background Manufacturing continuity relies entirely on the structural integrity and operational readiness of critical machinery. Specific Background Sugar factories utilizing continuous operational models frequently face sudden mechanical breakdowns, resulting in severe production downtime and excessive emergency repair expenditures. Knowledge Gap Although unexpected mechanical failures severely disrupt production, many factories still lack a quantitatively determined, scheduled maintenance framework based on exact reliability metrics and historical failure intervals. Aims This study determines an optimal maintenance schedule for sugar processing machinery utilizing the Reliability-Centered Maintenance methodology. Results Analysis of 11 failure occurrences yielded a Mean Time to Repair of 0.5364 hours and a Mean Time Between Failure of 29.299 hours. The machinery's operational reliability dropped to 44.08 percent within a 24-hour cycle, despite maintaining a high availability rate of 98.20 percent. Stasiun Pemurnian and Stasiun Gilingan recorded the highest failure frequencies, primarily driven by bearing wear, continuous overloading, severe overheating, and oil contamination. Novelty This research directly translates specific component failure metrics and 24-hour cycle reliability limits into a highly structured, data-driven preventative maintenance timeline for sugar processing operations. Implications Executing a mandated preventative maintenance protocol every two days ensures components are serviced before reaching critical failure limits, substantially minimizing unplanned downtime and securing operational efficiency. Highlights: Unplanned mechanical breakdowns significantly disrupt continuous sugar processing operations, requiring structured maintenance interventions based on exact reliability metrics. Machinery analysis revealed a 29.299-hour Mean Time Between Failure and a 44.08 percent operational reliability limit during a standard 24-hour cycle. Mandating a strict preventative maintenance schedule every two days mitigates unexpected downtime and successfully addresses critical overheating and bearing failures. Keywords: Reliability Centered Maintenance, Mean Time Between Failure, Preventive Scheduling, Equipment Reliability, Operational Availability
Business Feasibility Analysis at the Toko Tani Indonesia Center at the Food and Agriculture Office of Sidoarjo Regency: Analisis Kelayakan Usaha pada Toko Tani Indonesia Center Di Dinas Pangan dan Pertanian Kabupaten Sidoarjo Dewi Nur Ayuningtyas; Tedjo Sukmono
Procedia of Engineering and Life Science Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Proceedings of the 9th Seminar Nasional Sains 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/pels.v10i1.2950

Abstract

General Background Business feasibility analysis serves as a comprehensive evaluation framework to determine the viability of commercial initiatives and developmental projects. Specific Background This study investigates the business feasibility of the Toko Tani Indonesia Center (TTIC) managed by the Department of Food and Agriculture of Sidoarjo Regency as a marketing channel for MSME products and a provider of affordable food commodities. Knowledge Gap Although the store holds significant potential to support the regional economy, empirical evaluations addressing low customer visits and limited public awareness remain unaddressed. Aims This research aims to analyze business viability across legal, market and marketing, financial, technical and operational, management and human resources, economic and social, as well as environmental aspects. Results Findings demonstrate that the business is feasible for development, yielding a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 2.02, alongside adequately fulfilled legal, technical, managerial, and environmental aspects. Novelty This work provides a multi-aspect feasibility evaluation specifically focused on government-backed agricultural retail outlets supporting regional MSMEs. Implications Strengthening promotional strategies and operational management is essential to increase customer traffic and sales volume. Key Findings Highlights Financial analysis confirms the business is viable with a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) value of 2.02, Legal, technical, managerial, social, and environmental aspects have been adequately fulfilled, Marketing and promotional aspects require significant strengthening due to limited public awareness and low customer visits. Keywords Industrial Feasibility Study, Market Aspect, Legal Aspect, Technical Aspect, Financial Aspect
Cost Efficiency Analysis of Crushed Stone Raw Material Inventory 10-20 Using EOQ Model Approach: Analisis Efisiensi Biaya Persediaan Bahan Baku Batu Pecah 10-20 Melalui Pendekatan Model EOQ Achmad Rizki Dwi Nur Amrin; Tedjo Sukmono
Procedia of Engineering and Life Science Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Proceedings of the 9th Seminar Nasional Sains 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/pels.v10i1.3079

Abstract

General Background Ineffective control of raw material inventories can significantly increase operational costs for manufacturing companies. Specific Background This study analyzes the control of 10-20 broken stone raw materials at PT. XYZ using the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method combined with linear regression forecasting. Knowledge Gap Existing inventory management lacks optimal order structuring, leading to suboptimal purchasing frequencies and elevated inventory expenses. Aims This study aims to determine the economical order quantity and evaluate cost efficiency improvements for raw material inventories. Results Findings indicate an annual raw material requirement of 37,883 tons, an optimal order quantity of 763 tons per order with a purchase frequency of 50 times per year, and a total inventory cost reduction from Rp181.200.563 to Rp25.084.238. Novelty This work establishes an integrated probabilistic EOQ and linear regression framework tailored for ready-mix concrete aggregate supply chain management. Implications Implementing the EOQ model successfully improves inventory management efficiency, achieving an 86.23% cost saving. KEY FINDINGS HIGHLIGHTS Applying the Economic Order Quantity model reduces total inventory costs from Rp181.200.563 to Rp25.084.238. The optimal order quantity is determined at 763 tons per order with a purchasing frequency of 50 times annually. The proposed inventory control approach successfully achieves an impressive cost efficiency savings of 86.23%. Keywords Raw Material Inventory, Eoq, Inventory Control, Cost Efficiency
Eksplorasi Konsep Ipa dalam Penggunaan Tanaman Obat Tradisional Masyarakat di Kecamatan Gunung Kerinci sebagai Sumber Belajar Eiby Lismayani; Haryanto Haryanto; Tedjo Sukmono
JURNAL PENDIDIKAN DAN ILMU SOSIAL (JUPENDIS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2026): OKTOBER: JURNAL PENDIDIKAN DAN ILMU SOSIAL
Publisher : Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis (ITB) Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54066/jupendis.v4i4.4382

Abstract

. Community knowledge regarding the use of traditional medicinal plants represents a form of local wisdom that continues to be preserved in Gunung Kerinci District, Kerinci Regency, Jambi Province. This knowledge has been passed down through generations and encompasses various scientific concepts that have the potential to serve as learning resources for Natural Science education. This study aims to identify the types of traditional medicinal plants used by the local community, explore the Natural Science concepts embedded in their use, and analyze their potential as learning resources for Natural Science education. The study employed a qualitative approach using an ethnographic method. Data were collected through participant observation, in-depth interviews, documentation, and source triangulation, and were analyzed using Spradley’s ethnographic analysis model, which includes domain, taxonomic, componential, and cultural theme analyses. The findings indicate that the community continues to utilize various traditional medicinal plants through the processes of plant selection, washing, grinding, boiling, filtration, and preparation. These practices incorporate scientific concepts related to biology, chemistry, physics, and ecology. The use of traditional medicinal plants has the potential to become a contextual learning resource for Natural Science education, relevant to students’ daily lives, while supporting the implementation of ethnoscience-based learning within the Merdeka Curriculum.
Co-Authors Abdul Rohman Abdul Rohman Achmad Rizki Dwi Nur Amrin Adistyas Nastiti, Octavia Afreni Hamidah Agung Laksono Agus Subagyo Ahmad Fikri Ardianto Ahmad Sazali Alfian Fajar Gunawan Ali Mashar Ali Sadikin Ali Sadikin Amatullah, Dhiny Angela, Fitrah Cornellya Apriliana Sari Wulandari, Indah Arba, Risqi Mutia Ardiansyah Eko Saputra Arifin , Zainul Arinda Jayanti Putri Askhaarina Aulia Tsalits Asni Johari Asrial Asrial Atika, Dewi Nur Atikha Sidhi Cahyana Azhari, Asri Azlinda Anggraini Putri Bambang Hariyadi Bambang Hariyadi Bambang Hariyadi Bambang Haryadi Benedika Ferdian Hutabarat Bestia Dewi Boy Isma Putra Damayanti , Maharani Lutfiah Damris Muhammad Dani Sartika Darlim Darmawi Dawam Suprayogi Desfaur Natalia Dewi Nur Ayuningtyas Dewi Nurus Silmi Dian Ratna Sari Didin Muhjidin Diwanti Faradiba, Nabila Dristiana, Fila Dwi Kakung Saputro Dyah Ayu Shinta Permatasary Dzati Fauziyah Eiby Lismayani Ema Marminto Ervan Johan Wicaksana Erwin Widiantono Fahrell Andhika Pratama Fajar Ardian Cahyo Putra Febrina Rolin Fila Dristiana Gusti Nurina Azhariani Hafizah, Mutia Hana Catur Wahyuni Harlis Harlis Harlis Harlis Hartanti, Lusia Permata Sari Haryanto Haryanto Hasnaul Maritsa Heni Asmora Ritonga Hery Murnawan, Hery Hutwan Syarifuddin Ihsan, Mahya Indra Lesmana Inggit Marodiyah Jamaaluddin Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Kania Fatikasari Khairatinisa Khairatinisa Krisna Risky Putra Irawan Lega Anattri Leksono, Rudy Bowo Lestari, Wiwik Puji Lindyawati, Lely M. F. Rahardjo M. Rusdi M.Haris Efendi Hsb Mardhotillah, Bunga Mauli, Fajar Dwi May Sella Meirani Id’ha Khusainiah Mishani, Adinda Chamilia Mochammad Amru Nail Suherman Mochammad Imam Mashuri Mohammad Andi Rasyid Mohammad Buchori Mohammad Ekki Hadian Mohammad Nabil Makarim Much Syafiudin Muhaimin Muhaimin Muhammad Arizki Zainul Ramadhan Muhammad Dio Dwi Septian Muhammad Erick Sanjaya Muhammad Hafid Fikrianto Muhammad Haris Effendi Hsb Mukhammad Rifky Ramadhan Mukhammad Surya Lesmana Muswita Muswita Muswita Muswita Nafis Khumaidah Natalia, Desfaur Naufalut Tharif Qurniawan Naufalut Tharif Qurniawan Nazifa, Boti Iffa Nisrina Salsabila Novi Prastyanda Putra Pratama Novi Ramayani Nugraha, A. Prima Nugroho, Dizsa Arliansyah Nur Dwi Kesya Aprisilia NURJIRANA NURJIRANA Nurma M. Hidayatulloh Octavia Adistyas Nastiti Octavia Adistyas Nastiti Pangestu, Retno PRADITA EKO PRASETYO UTOMO Putra, Tri Syukria Putri Ramadhani Putri, Andini Faizatul Putri, Melinda Aprilia R. Dwi Hadidjaja Rasjid Saputra Rachman, Meisya Azzahra Radiana Atika Sari Rahmansyah, Muhammad Miftah Arzaq Rany Riyantati, Dena Rasyid, Mohammad Andi Rayandra Asyhar Revis Asra Revis Asra Revis Asra Ribangun Bamban Jakaria Rifli Rindes Riska Afrilia Rista Dwi Cahyaningurm Rizky Janatul Magwa Rudy Bowo Leksono Safitri , Salsa Zulfa SANDI KURNIAWAN Sanjaya, Muhammad Erick Saputra, Nur Qomaruddin Sari , Indah Apriliana Sari W, Indah Apriliana Sari Wulandari, Indah Apriliana Sarwo Edy Wibowo Setiawan, Ardhi Wahyu Setiawan, Ari Rio De Sigit Wahono sisiliani, fitria trisna Sofillauny, Zahara Sonia Angellina Saputri Suhadak Sulistiono Suzanti, Sriliah Syaiful Syaiful Syaifullah, Dikril Ilham TARUNI SRI PRAWAST MIEN KAOMINI ANY ARYANI DEDY DURYADI SOLIHIN Tedy Azmi Nasution TEJA KASWARI Tia Wulandari TIA WULANDARI Tri Afiyani Tri Syukria Putra Ucop Haroen Upik Yelianti Utomo, Pradita Eko Prasetyo Vanisa Reyhan Faradiba Varid Jainuri Vivin Nur Oktavianty Wahono, Sigit Wahyu Nugroho Wahyu Setiawan, Ardhi Wardhani, Devira Kusuma Wijatmiko, Erie Fadma Noer Fitriana Wilda Syahri Winda Dwi Kartika, Winda Dwi Wiwik Sulistiyowati Wulandari, Indah Apriliana Sari Yoppie Wulanda Yusuf Effri Prastyo Budi Zurweni Zurweni