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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal Pendidikan Jasmani, Olahraga dan Kesehatan Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan (JEBIK) JEJAK Suluh Pembangunan: Journal of Extension and Development Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan BANGUN REKAPRIMA IJBE (Integrated Journal of Business and Economics) Agregat: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH International Journal of Supply Chain Management Journal on Education International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR) Jurnal Vokasi Revenue: Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Islam Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Convergence : The Journal of Economic Development Bubungan Tinggi: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat ANALISIS - SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT, BUSINESS, AND ACCOUNTING Jurnal Syntax Transformation Economics and Digital Business Review Journal Social Science And Technology For Community Service Pariksa: jurnal Hukum Agama Hindu Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal Pendidikan Jasmani, Olahraga dan Kesehatan Undiksha International Journal of Economics, Business, and Entrepreneurship (IJEBE) Jurnal Inovasi Pembangunan Journal of Social Research Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan International Journal of Islamic Education, Research and Multiculturalism (IJIERM) Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah E-journal Field of Economics, Business and Entrepreneurship (EFEBE) Studi Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik Indonesian Journal of Community Services Cel Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences (IJAMESC) International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting BULLET : Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu JEBD International Journal of Economics, Commerce, and Management International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences ENDLESS : International Journal of Future Studies International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research Aksi Nyata : Jurnal Pengabdian Sosial dan Kemanusiaan BEGAWI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Nemui Nyimah
I Wayan Suparta .
Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Business, Universitas Lampung, Lampung
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Analisis Peran Energi Terbarukan, Inflasi, Ekspor, Dan Manufaktur Terhadap GNI Per Kapita Dalam Upaya Menghindari Middle-Income Trap Di Indonesia I Made Renaldi; I Wayan Suparta
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Digital Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Juli - September
Publisher : CV. ITTC INDONESIA

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of renewable energy, inflation, manufacturing value added, and exports on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in Indonesia as part of the effort to escape the middle-income trap. The study uses annual time series data from 1987 to 2023 and applies the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for analysis. The long-term estimation results show that renewable energy and manufacturing value added have a positive and significant effect on GNI per capita, while inflation has a negative and significant effect. Exports show a positive but statistically insignificant effect, likely due to the dominance of commodity-based exports. In the short term, renewable energy has a consistently positive and significant effect across all lags. Inflation has a significant negative effect only in the first lag, while exports show a negative effect in the second lag. Manufacturing value added does not have a significant short-term effect. The significant error correction coefficient (CointEq1) of -0.879844 indicates a strong adjustment mechanism, suggesting that the model tends to return to long-term equilibrium rapidly after short-term shocks. These findings suggest that clean energy transition, strengthening of the manufacturing sector, and inflation control are strategic factors in increasing national income and avoiding the middle-income trap.
Co-Authors Aditya, Dhea Nerizza Ahmad Dhea Pratama Ahmad Dhea Pratama Alfajar, Ridho Ambya, Ambya Anggun Yustia Arinda T Anisa, Senada Anny Nurbasari Antasa, Muhammad Rizky Arif Darmawan Arivina Ratih Taher Arivina Ratih Yulihar Arivina Ratih Yulihar Taher Arivina Ratih Yulihar Taher Asih Murwiati Aulia, Deswira Besti Lilyana, Besti Budiarty, IDA Ciptawaty, Ukhti Crisnina Handayani DARMANSYAH . Desak Ayu Putu Suciati Desi Wijayanti Devita Sari Dewi, I Gusti Ayu Wulan Krisna Dhea Nerizza Aditya Djayasinga, Marselina Erni Achmad Etika Revolusi Nusantari Fadeli Yusuf Afif Fadhilah Ismi Badai Fauzianti, Naufalia Firdaus, Angga Nur Fitria Eka Rahma Gorrety Espinosa S, Yolanda Gunarto, Toto Hanifatuzzahra, Zakia hasnin, muhammad HERU WAHYUDI I Made Renaldi I Nyoman Kanca I Putu Panca Adi Ida Budiarti Julian Junior Anggara Putra Kahlanaila Pahlifi Komang Ardana Latifah, Tiara Mukti lies maria hamzah Lola Oktaviani M Iqbal Harori M. Saputra Marcelina Anggreani Marselina Marselina Mega Mariska Melinda Dwi Erda Wilianti Mifti Anisa Wulansari Moneyzar Usman Moniyana Putri, Resha Moniyana, Resha Muhammad Arif Prastyadi Muhammad Husaini Muhammad Irfan Affandi Muhammad Mufti Hudani Muhammad Zais M. Samiun Mukaromah, Laila Murwiati, Asih Nairobi Nairobi Nairobi Nairobi, Nairobi Nasrullah, Ade Neli Aida Ni Ketut Sri Rahayuni Ni Nengah Rizki Noventy Nindya Eka Sobita Nisa, Cholly Fatun Nouvan, M. Ahadi Nurbety Nurul Hariza Paisal Halim Palupi, Widia Anggi Parti, I Ketut Pratama, Ahmad Dhea Prayudha Ananta Previta Ridha Putri Purwaningsih, Vitriyani Tri Putri, Resha Moniyana Ramlan Siregar Ratih Taher, Arivina Ratih, Arivia Ratih, Arivina Renaldi, I Made Resha Moniyana Putri Rizka Malia Rizka Malia Rizky Apriansyah Royiv Agmadeni Sari, Della Kurnia Senada Anisa Septian, Wika Ayu Setyawan, Ari Sony Pramaningtyas Sony Tian Dhora Suparta, I Wayan Darya Sutapa, Ketut Syahrudin Taher, Arivina Ratih Yulihar Tiara Nirmala Toto Gunarto Toto Gunarto Tri Joko Prasetyo Tri Purwaningsih, Vitriyani Triananda, Silva Viola De Yusa Vitriyani Tri Purwaningsih Wayan Ekayana Wibawa, I Gede Sastra Widia Anggi Palupi Wijayanti, Desi Wilianti, Melinda Dwi Erda Yana Qomariana Yanti, Leni Sepri Yoke Moelgini Yuliana, Shella Yusmanda Endah Pangesti Zainul hamzah Zamzami Zamzami Zulfa Emalia Zulfa Emalia