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ASEP SAEFUDDIN
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Institut Pertanian Bogorm, Kampus IPB Darmaga, Bogor 16688
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Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) merupakan salah satu indikator yang digunakan pemerintah dalam mengambil kebijakan dalam bidang ekonomi. Selain itu pemerintah menganggap pentingnya pasar modal sebagai alternatif pembiayaan selain perbankan. Fluktuasi yang sangat besar terjadi di pasar bursa, karena setiap transaksi tercatat dengan skala waktu yang kecil sehingga perubahan nilai yang terjadi begitu cepat. Pada kasus ini asumsi kehomogenan ragam tidak terpenuhi. Pada pasar bursa juga memperliha Nirawita Untari; Ahmad Ansori Mattjik; Asep Saefuddin
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 14 No. 1 (2009)
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Abstract

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) merupakan salah satu indikator yang digunakan pemerintah dalam mengambil kebijakan dalam bidang ekonomi. Selain itu pemerintah menganggap pentingnya pasar modal sebagai alternatif pembiayaan selain perbankan. Fluktuasi yang sangat besar terjadi di pasar bursa, karena setiap transaksi tercatat dengan skala waktu yang kecil sehingga perubahan nilai yang terjadi begitu cepat. Pada kasus ini asumsi kehomogenan ragam tidak terpenuhi. Pada pasar bursa juga memperlihatkan adanya pengaruh asimetrik(leverage), yaitu hubungan yang negatif antara perubahan nilai return dengan pergerakan volatilitasnya. Model EGARCH yang memodelkan ragam bersyarat sebagai fungsi log-linear digunakan sebagai fungsi ragam dalam memodelkan nilai harian IHSG, sehingga nilai ragam bersyarat yang diprediksi tidak akan pernah negatif. Model EGARCH terpilih adalah MA(1)-EGARCH(1,1). Model EGARCH terbukti sangat baik dalam memodelkan nilai harian IHSG, tetapi belum cukup baik untuk meramalkan nilai IHSG yang akan datang. Selain ramalan terhadap nilai harian IHSG, pemodelan fungsi ragam juga menghasilkan peramalan terhadap ragam bersyaratnya. Ramalan ragam bersyarat sangat berguna bagi pemegang aset dalam melihat perilaku pergerakan IHSG dan untuk menghitung besarnya resiko memegang suatu aset di masa yang akan datang.
PERFORMANCE COMPARISON BETWEEN KIMURA 2-PARAMETERS AND JUKES-CANTOR MODEL IN CONSTRUCTING PHYLOGENETIC TREE OF NEIGHBOUR JOINING Hendra Prasetya; Asep Saefuddin; Muladno .
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 16 No. 1 (2011)
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Bioinformatics as a recent improvement of knowledge has made an interest for scientist to collect and analyze data to provide the best estimate of the true phylogeny. The objective of this research is to construct and compare the phylogenetic tree of Neighbour Joining (NJ) based on different models (Kimura 2-Parameters and Jukes-Cantor) and to find out which model is more reliable on constructing NJ's tree. In order to build the tree, reliable set of data is conducted from D-loop mtDNA sequences that is available in Gen Bank. The nucleotide sequences come from Bison bison (American bison), Bos taurus (European cow such as Shorthorn), Bos indicus (zebu breeds), Bos grunniens mutus (one of subspecies of cow), and Capra hircus (species of goat). The reliability of each models was measured using the Felsentein's bootstrap method. The whole bootstrap process for each models was repeated 1.000, 5.000, and 10.000 times to detect its reliability. The performance was measured on the basis of the consistency of the topology relationship, the stability of nodes, the consistency of bootstrap confidence level (PB), standard error of distance, change of PB from (1.000-5.000) to (5.000-1.000), computational time, and  BIC score. NJ's phylogenetic tree with kimura 2-parameters and jukes cantor model have a good node stability and is also generally successful in representing topological relationships between taxa. The increasing of bootstrap replication number in common will increase the consistency of bootstrap confidence value ( . It means both models have a good reliability. But, when the number of sequences is large and the extent of sequence divergence is low, it is generally difficult to construct the tree by any models. In conclusion, Kimura 2-Parameters has a better performance than Jukes-Cantor.   Key words: phylogenetic tree, Neighbour Joining, Kimura 2-Parameters, Jukes-Cantor
Analyzing The Consumer’s Rice Price using Multiple Linear Regression and X-12 ARIMA Asep Saefuddin; Anang Kurnia; Dian Kusumaningrum
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 9 No. 2 (2004)
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Rice is one of the main foods in Indonesia. A change of rice price will cause a major effect in the lives of consumers.  On the other hand, there are so many factors that influence the rice price. Thus finding key factors which are significant to the rice price, as well as forecasting the consumer’s rice price are needed in order to maintain the stabilization of rice price. The second objective is to find key factors which influence the rice price by using multiple linear regression models. The parameters were estimated by ordinary least square methods. There are 6 variables that are significant at α=5%, which are the consumer’s rice price at the previous period, rice production at the current and previous period, farmer’s GKP price, realization of domestic stock, and total rice import. The rice price will increase if the GKP price and realization of domestic stock increase whereas total rice import and the consumer’s rice price at the previous period have negative influences towards the rice price. The impact of imported rice is negative towards domestic rice. This condition will also drive negative effect towards the farmer’s income, in this case the price does not meet the farmers cost for production. To protect the farmers, the government applied a 430.00 Rp/Kg imported rice fee but this is not effective to decrease the amount of imported rice.  In this model rice production at the current and previous period have positive signs, contradictory to the microeconomic theory where when the rice production increases, there will be an excess supply and the price will drop. That condition will occur only if the commodity is a free commodity and the rice is at the sufficiency level but in Indonesia, rice is affected by the government’s policy and the rice productivity is left behind by the demand. Forecasting the consumer’s rice price for the next five years was the last objective of this research. ARIMA Box–Jenkins Method, X-12 ARIMA, Winter’s Method, and Trend Analysis were compared to find the best statistical model to forecast the consumer’s rice price. X-12 ARIMA turns out to be the best method because it has the smallest MAPE, MAD, and MSD value. This result is a satisfactory because according to Findley et al. (1998) X-12 ARIMA has the capability to adjust seasonal and trading day factors which usually causes fluctuations in an economic time series data.     Keyword : X-12 ARIMA   
PENDEKATAN NONPARAMETRIK UNTUK ANALISIS TREND PADA RESPONS BINER Nusar Hajarisman; Asep Saefuddin
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 11 No. 1 (2006)
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Pada saat penelitian lebih difokuskan pada proporsi dari banyaknya ‘sukses’, pi = Yi/Ni, maka analisis seringkali dilakukan berdasarkan model sampling untuk proporsi:distribusi binomial. Distribusi statistik sederhana seperti binomial kadang-kadang tidak mampu untuk menggambarkan distribusi sampling dari Yi atau pi. Dengan demikian, untuk setiap analisis berdasarkan pada penaksiran parameter dari model binomial (yaitu metode parametrik binomial) akan membawa pada kekeliruan dalam inferensi mengenai efek dari suatu stimulus yang sedang diamati. Dalam makalah ini akan dibahas mengenai suatu alternatif dari model parametrik untuk pi, yaitu dengan menggunakanmetode bebas-distribusi (nonparametrik). Dua buah metode berdasarkan pendekatan nonparametrik untuk keperluan analisis trend yang akan dibahas dalam makalah ini ujiCochran-Armitage dan uji Permutasi.
SENSITIFITAS MODEL GARCH UNTUK MENGATASI HETEROKEDASTIK PADA DATA DERET WAKTU Asep Saefuddin; Anang Kurnia; . Sutriyati
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 10 No. 2 (2005)
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Abstract

Data deret waktu pada bidang keuangan sering kali memiliki galat yang tidak homogen (heteroskedastik).  Hal ini bersifat alami terutama yang berhubungan dengan resiko memegang aset, dimana semakin besar resiko akan semakin besar pengembalian yang diterima dan sebaliknya. Metode yang cukup sederhana yang menggunakan informasi ragam galat sebelumnya untuk menghitung ragam galat saat ini adalah Model GARCH. Penelitian ini mencoba untuk mempelajari sensitifitas model GARCH dalam mengatasi heterokedastik pada data deret waktu.  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kemunculan nilai ekstrim > 1% secara berurutan pada akhir periode, membuat pemodelan berbias untuk berbagai nilai T. Sedangkan apabila ekstrim menyebar secara acak di tengah periode pengamatan, menyebabkan penduga berbias pada T kecil (500). Untuk T=2000, penduga akan bias apabila terdapat nilai ekstrim lebih dari 10, sehingga untuk mendapatkan model yang kekar diperlukan jumlah data cukup besar (lebih dari 1000).  Adapun untuk T kecil, ketika mulai terdapat volatilitas yang besar maka model cenderung untuk bias.   Kata kunci : Heterokedastis, GARCH
KLASIFIKASI SKOR PROPENSITAS DALAM PENDUGAAN SELANG KEPERCAYAAN BOOTSTRAP UNTUK PERBEDAAN NILAI TENGAH DUA POPULASI . Marzuki; Asep Saefuddin; Anang Kurnia
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 10 No. 2 (2005)
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The comparison of mean of two populations assumes that there is no other variables influence (covariate) except the difference of the observed variable. In real data, this condition is often unfulfilled. Propensity score classification (PSC) is a method to overcome the case. In this research, we do simulation data to evaluate the method, and as the illustration we do the real data of first semester NMR of IPB postgraduate students in Statistics major. The simulation data is generated by covariates either with the same means or different ones to both groups, each with different parameter () 0,00, 0,25 and 0,50. The bootstrap confidence interval included a distribution which is built from propensity score estimations without the variance estimation.   The result shows that 95% bootstrap confidence interval with PSC method includes the parameter for the same and different covariate distribution respectively as 0,95 and 0,87. This method is suitable only when the sample sizes are larger. The illustration uses real data with covariate age, marital status, graduate (S-1) NMR and occupation as a lecturer or not, the result estimation of 95% bootstrap interval confidence to differentiate NMR of postgraduate Statistics students in IPB between those who came from the universities in Java and outside Java is between -0,13 and 0,72.   Keywords : propensity, bootstrap, covariates
SEJARAH PERKEMBANGAN STATISTIKA DAN APLIKASINYA Sony Sunaryo; Setiawan Setiawan; Anik Djuraidah; Asep Saefuddin
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 8 No. 1 (2003)
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Abstract

Statistika diawali sebagai ilmu untuk mengumpulkan angka (data).  Pada abad 17  statistika deskriptif mulai berkembang, begitu juga ilmu peluang yang awalnya dilahirkan dari meja judi sudah mulai muncul .  Ilmu peluang ini melandasi berkembangnya statistika induktif yang terjadi pada pertukaran abad 19 dan 20 dengan Karl Pearson sebagai pelopornya. Statistika induktif berkembang pesat setelah R. A. Fisher memperkenalkan metode Maximum Likelihood pada tahun 1922. Dengan adanya perkembangan teknologi komputer, metode eksplorasi data dan bootstrap mulai berkembang pada tahun 1970.  Metode ini sebagai awal dari analisis data tanpa model peluang yang populer dengan data driven. Seiring dengan perkembangan statistika induktif, statistika mulai diterapkan pada berbagai bidang  seperti ekonomi, industri, pertanian, sosiologi, psikologi, dan lain-lain.Di bidang ekonomi aplikasi statistika pada ekonometrika, sedangkan di bidang  industri aplikasi yang sangat terkenal adalah metode Quality Control dan metode Six-Sigma.Pada abad 21 diperkirakan metode data mining akan banyak digunakan dalam bidang terapan.  Perkembangan ini akan berpengaruh terhadap model pendidikan dan pengajaran statistika dewasa ini.Di Indonesia penggunaan statistika dipelopori dengan dibukanya  program pendidikan statistika di bawah naungan Jurusan Statistika IPB  (S1 sejak tahun 1967 dan S2 sejak tahun 1975). Peran Jurusan Statistika IPB baik lewat mata kuliah pelayanan pada jurusan lain di lingkungan IPB, maupun para lulusannya yang sudah tersebar di bergai bidang pekerjaan memberikan dampak positif bagi penggunaan statistika sebagai alat bantu analisis.Sekarang selain IPB ada  PTN  dan PTS yang telah membuka jurusan statistika. 
SURVIVAL ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER IN POSTPAID TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY Doni Suhartono; Asep Saefuddin; I Made Sumertajaya
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 18 No. 1 (2013)
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Currently, the business competition in mobile telecommunication industry among providers in Indonesia is tighter and it has given rise to a phenomenon of customer defection which has serious consequences for the business performance. In the current circumstances, customers are faced numerous options to be selected that probably cause them at risk to get churn. Therefore, it becomes one of the challenges encountered by Division of Loyalty and Retention to makes the efforts of decreasing customer defection. So that it is important conducting a model of churn practically applied to predict tendency of customer churn and also recognizing the prognostic factors influence customer churn. Survival analysis modelling, such as Cox’s proportional hazard model, was very successful in previous research, which investigatedthe relationship between survival time and possible prognostic factors. Based on the research, Cox’s proportional hazard model of customer lifetime is effective to distinguish relative risk between churn customers and others, and also between which loyal customers and with other short time customers with their significant prognostic factors. Afterwards the simulation of the survival probability estimated over time with particular possible combination of the most significant characteristics affecting tendency of churn, are able to predict such information of lifetime to churn event and compare the survival performance of one another. Finally, the results of this research is able to yield simple, helpful and applicable results as the principle of taking decission for optimizing their customer retention and/or treatment resources in their customer retention efforts for the company.Key words : Churn, Cox’s proportional hazard model, customer retention, survival analysis and telecommunication industry.
MODELING OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER IN BOGOR USING BAYESIAN SUR-SAR Hilman Dwi Anggana; Asep Saefuddin; Bagus Sartono
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
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The purposes of this research are (1) To develop Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system constructed by correlated Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) with Bayesian approach for dynamic analysis of spatial and non-spatial contributions of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) case in Bogor, (2) To evaluate efficiency issues on parameters estimation with SUR system. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme was used to estimate all of model parameters with the number of iteration whose burn-in period was discovered. The results indicated that : there was the similar pattern of DHF spread in Bogor during 2009 – 2011, the nearby areas had a significant role to the incidence of DHF in an area in the city of Bogor, and the non-spatial contributions of DHF cases in Bogor during 2009 -2011 included in this model were dynamic. Gain efficiency of parameters estimation on modeling of DHF in Bogor with SAR for each year during 2009-2011 can be obtained if we construct all of SAR with SUR system model.
ALTERNATIVE SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION FOR NON-NORMALITY IN CENSORED REGRESSION MODEL WITH LARGE NUMBER OF ZERO OBSERVATION Andres Purmalino; Asep Saefuddin; Hari Wijayanto
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
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A large number of zero observation on the response variable in the socio-economic field are often found in household demand models. This will imply on the method to estimate parameters in the model used. Ordinary least square estimators of linear models to be biased and inconsistent. One model to overcome is using censored regression model is also know as tobit model. However, non-normality in the Tobit Estimators being inconsistent. Another alternative estimators is censor least absolute deviations (CLAD). CLAD estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for a wide class of distribution. This study was to focus on the application of Tobit and Censored Least Absolute Deviations (CLAD) estimators for LPG demand. The data used is the LPG expenditure in rural areas in the provinces of West Java that the number zero observations is 39 percent of the sample. The result shows that CLAD and Tobit estimators are consistent estimators. But along with increasing the number of samples, the CLAD estimators performance is getting better than Tobit estimators.Keywords : Zero observation, CLAD, Tobit, Consistent estimator, LPG demand
Co-Authors . Marzuki . Sutriyati Achmad ACHMAD . Achmad Ramzy Tadjoedin adwendi, satria june Agus M Soleh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustifa Zea Tazliqoh Ahmad A. Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aji H. Wigena Aji Hamim Wigena Aldi, Muhammad Nur Alif Supandi Alinda F. M. Zain Alkahfi, Cahya Ananda Shafira Anang Kurnia Andres Purmalino Ani Suryani Anik Djuraidah Arief Daryanto Arista Marlince Tamonob Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arnita Arnita Azagi, Ilham Alifa Bagus Sartono Bambang Indriyanto Basita Ginting Budhi Purwandaya, Budhi Budi Marwoto Budi Susetyo Bunasor Sanim Cece Sumantri Chalid Talib Citra Jaya Daowen Zhang Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih Diah Krisnatuti Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum, Doni Suhartono Dudung Darusman Eka Intan Kumala Putri Embay Rohaeti Eminita, Viarti Enny Kristiani Enny Kristiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Eri Purnomohadi Etih Sudarnika Etty Riani Euis Sunarti Eva Z Yusuf Fatah Sulaiman Fitrah Ernawati Frisca Rizki Ananda Fulazzaky, Tahira H. R. Eddie Gurnadi HAJRIAL ASWIDINNOOR Hanny Nurlatifah Harapin Hafid H. Hardiansyah . Hardinsyah Hari Wijayanto Hartoyo, harry Hasnataeni, Yunia Hendra Prasetya Hengki Muradi Heny Suwarsinah Hermanto Siregar Hidayat Syarief Hilman Dwi Anggana Husaini . I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Ida Mariati Hutabarat Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jajang Jajang Jodi Vanden Eng Joko Affandi Joko Affandi Joko Sutrisno JOKO SUTRISNO Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kristiani, Enny Kusman Sadik Lia Budimulyati Salman Lia Ratih Kusuma Dewi Lilik Noor Yuliati Lismayani Usman Lukmanul Hakim Lukmanul Hakim M. Yunus M. Yunus Mangara Tambunan Margono Slamet Marimin , Marimin Marimin Marizsa Herlina Marliati . Marliati Marliati Mirnawati Sudarwanto Muggy David Cristian Ginzel Muhammad Nur Aidi Muradi, Hengki Musa Hubeis mutiah, siti Ni Nyoman Sawitri Nimmi Zulbainarni Ningsih, Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ninuk Purnaningsih Nirawita Untari Nunung Nuryartono Nuramaliyah, Nuramaliyah Nurlatifah, Hanny Nurul Hidayati Nusar Hajarisman Pang S. Asngari Pien Budiyanto Prabowo Tjitropranoto Pradina, Fathia Anggriani Priyadi Kardono Purnomohadi, Eri R. Ruswandi Rahmadi Sunoko Rahmadi Sunoko Ratna Megawangi Rimun Wibowo Ristu Haiban Hirzi, Ristu Rita Kusriastuti Rizal Syarief Rizal Syarief Rizka Rahmaida Ronny Rachman Noor Rudy Priyanto S. Damanhur, Didin Santun R.P. Sitorus SANTUN R.P. SITORUS Sarah Putri Sarsidi Sastrosumarjo Sausan Nisrina Setiadi Djohar Setiawan Setiawan Siti Sundari Sitti Nurhaliza Sjafri Mangkuprawira Sjafri Mangkuprawira Soedijanto Padmowihardjo Soekirman Soekirman Soetrisno Hadi Sony Sunaryo Sri Yusnita Burhan Suhartono . Suhartono . Sumardjo Sumarjo Gatot Irianto Sumartono Sumartono Sutarman Sutarman . Suwarsinah, Heny Syafri Mangkuprawira Syafri Mangkuprawira Syarifah Iis Aisyah TADJOEDIN, ACHMAD RAMZY Tagor Alamsyah Harahap Talib, Chalid Tati Rajati Tati Suprapti Tiyas Yulita triguna, gunadi Ujang Sumarwan Umi Cahyaningsih Upik Kesumawati Hadi Utami Dyah Syafitri Wahida Ainun Mumtaza William A. Hawley Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yani Nurhadryani Yekti Widyaningsih Yenni Angraini Yudhistira Arie Wijaya Yuni Ros Bangun Yusuf, Eva Z Zinggara hidayat