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Prediksi Permintaan Reservasi Kamar Hotel Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Saputra, Habibi Yusup; Aziza, Istin Fitriani; Soraya, Siti
CORISINDO 2025 Vol. 1 (2025): Prosiding Seminar Nasional CORISINDO 2025
Publisher : CORISINDO 2025

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/corisindo.v1.5298

Abstract

 Hotel reservation demand forecasting is a crucial component in hotel management for operational optimization and profitability. Time series reservation data is often volatile and uncertain, thus requiring an adaptive forecasting model. This study objective is to implements the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method to predict the number of weekly room reservations at a hotel in Gili Trawangan. Historical reservation data for 54 weeks from June 2024 to June 2025 is processed through three main stages: determining the universe of discourse, fuzzifying the data into seven fuzzy sets, and extracting knowledge to form Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups (FLRG). The forecasting results are evaluated using actual data and show good model performance in capturing demand fluctuation patterns. The model accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) produces a value of 11.69%, indicating that FTS is an effective and promising method for forecasting hotel room demand with dynamic data characteristics.
Analysis of the Spatial Error Model with Queen Contiguity Matrix Weights on Dengue Fever Soraya, Siti; Aziza, Istin Fitriani; Arisandi, Rizwan; Verma, Kirti; Isasi, Widani Darma; Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i1.33477

Abstract

Dengue Fever is one of the deadly diseases caused by a rapidly spreading virus transmitted through the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This study focuses on the NTB region, which has different geographical characteristics and infrastructure challenges. The variables used in this study are: dengue fever incidence, population, hospitals, community health centers, poor residents, and floods. The aim of this study is to model the factors that influence the occurrence of dengue fever in NTB. The method used is the Spatial Error Model (SEM), which serves to analyze spatial data to observe spatial correlation in the error variables. The research results indicate that the Moran Index and the Lagrange Multiplier test confirm the existence of spatial dependence in the error aspects. Significant variables at the 5% level affecting dengue fever cases are population size, the number of hospitals, and the number of community health centers. These findings provide an important scientific contribution as they represent one of the early studies that specifically identify and model the spatial dependence patterns of dengue fever cases in West Nusa Tenggara using a spatial econometric approach, thereby enriching the literature on spatial epidemiology at the regional level. The findings indicate that population growth and disparities in healthcare facilities increase the risk of dengue fever. This implies that more equitable spatial planning of healthcare services, strengthening of primary care, population density control, and increased community participation in sanitation and regular mosquito breeding site eradication are necessary as part of an to reduce dengue fever cases in NTB.
TOEFL Upgrading Program untuk Guru Bahasa Inggris di Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat Suhendra, Erwin; Widhi, Bidari Andaru; Herawat, Baiq Candra; Tanashur, Panji; Soraya, Siti
ADMA : Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): ADMA: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Mayarakat: In-Progress
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/adma.v6i2.5650

Abstract

Kompetensi TOEFL guru Bahasa Inggris SMA/SMK krusial bagi daya saing global siswa, namun kemampuan guru di daerah seringkali masih dasar. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi efektivitas program TOEFL Upgrading berbasis Participatory Action Research (PAR) dan Presentation–Practice–Production (PPP) pada guru di Lombok Tengah. Menggunakan metode campuran (kuantitatif-kualitatif), hasil menunjukkan peningkatan skor signifikan dari rata-rata 371,14 (pre-test) menjadi 447,15 (post-test). Peningkatan terbesar terjadi pada aspek listening dan reading, disertai kenaikan kepercayaan diri dan terbentuknya Community of Practice. Model PAR–PPP terbukti efektif meningkatkan skor tes sekaligus memperkuat ekosistem pengembangan profesional guru di daerah. 
Pendampingan Sertifikasi Halal UMKM di Kelurahan Karang Pule Mataram Rahima, Phyta; Suriyati, Suriyati; Soraya, Siti; Rismayati, Ria
Bakti Sekawan : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Juni
Publisher : Puslitbang Sekawan Institute Nusa Tenggara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35746/bakwan.v6i1.903

Abstract

Products with a halal certification label provide consumers with confidence as a form of protection, information on the product's halal status, and an ethical instrument in business. Good business actors with a sense of responsibility strive to obtain halal certification for the products they offer. The purpose of this community service is to provide assistance to MSMEs, such as food stalls or home-based businesses selling lalapan (Bale Lalapan), which have been established for approximately 8 months and do not yet have halal certification, to be directed in obtaining halal certification. The methods used in this community service activity include counseling, assistance, and explanations from the Certification Team to Business Owners facilitated by the Community Service team. The final result of the Community Service activities carried out by the Bumigora team is the issuance of halal certification from the Halal Product Guarantee Organizing Agency. With the issuance of Halal Certification to Bale Lalapan MSMEs, it is hoped that it will be able to increase income while increasing market reach. It is also hoped that Business Owners can understand the benefits of halal labeling of a product and understand the production process that is made according to halal standards with existing provisions, as well as being able to be applied in other business activities so as to be able to increase sales reach to larger institutions and become a motivation for other MSMEs in marketing their products.
The Implementation of Fuzzy Time Series in Forecasting The Number of Tourist Visits Aziza, Istin Fitriana; Soraya, Siti; Sahdan, Sahdan; Husain, Husain; Hendayanti, Ni Putu Nanik; Harsyiah, Lisa
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i3.4890

Abstract

The development of tourism in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province is supported by its geographical conditions, including scattered small islands (gilis), a tropical climate, and the cultural peculiarities of the Sasak and Mbojo Tribes, thereby becoming an attraction in the development of global tourist destinations. Tourism development in NTB Province would be more attractive with the establishment of the Mandalika National Tourism Development Strategic Area (KSPPN). This research aims to predict the number of tourist visits. A method to forecast the number of tourist visits in NTB Province is needed to assist the government in preparing appropriate facilities and infrastructure in the event of a possible surge in tourist visits. The method used in this study is the Fuzzy Time Series to predict the number of tourist visits in NTB Province. The data used in this study were secondary data sourced from the NTB government tourism office. The result of this research was that the Fuzzy Time Series method was effective in predicting the number of tourist visits in NTB Province, with an accuracy of 90.29%. The forecast result, generated using the Fuzzy Time Series method, was not significantly different from the actual data; in other words, it was almost identical to the actual data. The forecast for tourist visits to the NTB province in the 48th period remains unchanged until the 53rd period, namely 80,739.7 people. The FTS method used in this study cannot be applied to data with long-term seasonal patterns. A suggestion for future researchers is to develop a classical FTS that captures additional long-term seasonal patterns. 
Multi Time Steps Prediction dengan Recurrent Neural Network Long Short Term Memory Ahmad Ashril Rizal; Siti Soraya
MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika dan Rekayasa Komputer Vol. 18 No. 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/matrik.v18i1.344

Abstract

Tidak tersedianya sumber daya alam seperti migas, hasil hutan ataupun industri manufaktur yang berskala besar di pulau Lombok menyebabkan pariwisata telah menjadi sektor andalan dalam pembangunan daerah. Kontribusi sektor pariwisata menunjukkan trend yang semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Dampak positif pengeluaran wisatawan terhadap perekonomian terdistribusikan ke berbagai sektor. Akan tetapi, pemerinatah daerah umumnya akan melakukan persiapan wisata daerah hanya pada saat even lokal saja. Padahal kunjungan wisatawan bukan hanya karena faktor adanya event lokal saja. Persiapan pemerintah daerah dan pelaku wisata sangat penting untuk meningkatkan stabilitas kunjungan wisatawan. Penelitian ini mengkaji prediksi kunjungan wisatawan dengan pendekatan Recurrent Neural Network Long Short Term Memory (RNN LSTM). LSTM berisi informasi di luar aliran normal dari recurrent nertwork dalam gate cell. Cell membuat keputusan tentang apa yang harus disimpan dan kapan mengizinkan pembacaan, penulisan dan penghapusan, melalui gate yang terbuka dan tertutup. Gate menyampaikan informasi berdasarkan kekuatan yang masuk ke dalamnya dan akan difilter menjadi bobot dari gate itu sendiri. Bobot tersebut sama seperti bobot input dan hidden unit yang disesuaikan melalui proses leraning pada recurrent network. Hasil penelitian yang dilakukan dengan membangun model prediksi kunjungan wisatawan dengan RNN LSTM menggunakan multi time steps mendapatkan hasil RMSE sebesar 6888.37 pada data training dan 14684.33 pada data testing.
Community Purchase Decision Modeling in Bali with Non-Linier Methods Ni Putu Nanik Hendayanti; Maulida Nurhidayati; Siti Soraya; Habib Ratu Perwira Negara
MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika dan Rekayasa Komputer Vol. 21 No. 3 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/matrik.v21i3.1740

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in all activities having to be carried out by implementing physical distancing or social distancing in accordance with health protocols for mutual safety. The government encourages people to do more activities at home, including shopping. Consumer perception of purchasing goods online is a process of evaluating various alternatives and choosing one alternative to purchase goods using internet media. The government appealed to the public to take advantage of online shopping to minimize the spread of Covid-19. This indicates that there are factors that influence consumer perceptions of purchasing goods online during the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of perceived convenience, perceived benefits, perceived trustworthiness, and product quality on people’s purchasing decisions in Bali using the Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) approach, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN). Based on the results of the tests carried out, the SEM-PLS model is able to produce a model with an R2 value of 72.7% with a MAPE of 337.37, an SVR model of 65.88% with a MAPE of 219.56 and a FFNN model of 97.28% with a MAPE of 90.22. Based on the resulting R2 and MAPE values, the FFNN model gives the highest results compared to other models.
Co-Authors Afnidia, Tria Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat Ahmad Ahmad Ahmad Zuli Amrullah Al Jauziah, Hanief Ananda, Laraswati Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Maharani Anggarawan, Anthony Anthony Anggrawan Aryani, Wiwik Dyah Ashar Banyu Lazuardi Ayu Dasriani, Ni Gusti Aziza, Istin Fitriani Azizah, Istin Fitriani Azmi, Rinda Fitriana Badriyah, Lulu'ul Baiq Chandra Herawati Baiq Dinda Puspita Ayu Bryan Hakim Sakti Pradana Choirul Anwar christofer satria Daniel Happy Putra desventri etmy Devi Yulianti Dewi, Puspita Didiharyono, D. Dodiy Fahmeyzan Ekaningrum, Annisa Yuri Erwin Suhendra Ferdinandus Lidang Witi Firmansyah Firmansyah Firmansyah, Dodiy Fitriana Aziza, Istin Fitriana, Laili Fitriani, Anisa Gede Suwardika Gilang Primajati Gilang Primajati Gusnayanti, Riski Gusti Ayu Aghivirwiati Habib Ratu Perwira Negara Harsyiah, Lisa Helna Wardhana Hendayanti, Ni Putu Nanik Herawat, Baiq Candra Herawati, Baiq Candra Herlina Putri, Novi Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hisbullah Hisbullah Husain Husain I Gusti Ayu Desi Saryanti I Ketut Putu Suniantara I Nyoman Miyarta Yasa I Nyoman Yoga Sumadewa I Wayan Kusuma Di Biagi Ida Bagus Bayu Mahayana Indrawan Mulyadi Isasi, Widani Darma Ismoen, Muhaimin Istin Fitriana Aziza Juanda, M. Rizky Ujiana Julyanti , Nafi’ah Zahra Khairan marzuki Khasnur Hidjah Kurnia, Indri Lalu Ganda Rady Putra Maesaroh Maesaroh Malik Ibrahim Mayasari, Rossa Melati Rosanensi Mohammad Fajri Mukti, M Thoriq Panca Mustakim, Asep Muttahid Shah Nata, I Gede Anjas Kharisma Nurhidayati, Maulida Pangaribuan, Daniel Panji Tanashur Phyta Rahima Primajati , Gilang Primajati, Gilang Primajati, Gilang Puspita Dewi, Puspita Putrajip, Mohamad Yudisa Putri, Andri Qatrunnada R. Ayu Ida Aryani Rabbani, Muhammad Haikal Rahima, Pitha Rahmiati, Baiq Fitria Ratmaji, Muji Regina Pricilia Yunika Riana Riana Rianti, Andri Putri Rifani Nur Sindy Setiawan Rismayati, Ria Rizal, Ahmad Ashril Rizqi, Retno Inten Rizwan Arisandi, Rizwan Sahdan, Sahdan Santi Puteri Rahayu Saputra, Habibi Yusup Setiawan Setiawan Setyawan, Ari Shilvia Nurin Ni’mah Sirojul Hadi Subhan Hadi Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Supiarmo, M. Gunawan Suriyati ., Suriyati Syaharuddin Syaharuddin Ulul Azmi Verma, Kirti Widhi, Bidari Andaru Widia Febriana, Widia Wirajaya Kusuma Yunika, Regina Pricilia Yustina Hendrayati Baba Zilullah Nazir Hadi