Articles
Mixed Models of Non-Proportional Hazard and Application in The Open Distance Education Students Retention Data
Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih;
Anang Kurnia;
Asep Saefuddin;
I Wayan Mangku
Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society VOLUME 28 NUMBER 3 (NOVEMBER 2022)
Publisher : IndoMS
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DOI: 10.22342/jims.28.3.1185.323-344
The problem that arises in the Cox model is that there are more than two types of covariates and the presence of random effects is a non-proportional hazard (NPH). One example of a case that involves many factors is student retention. Low student retention can lead to dropping out of college or failure in completing studies. The purpose of this study is to overcome the problem of NPH caused by the presenceof time-independent covariates, time-dependent covariates, and random effects. The research method uses simulation. Some of the modified models are the stratified Cox model, the extended Cox model, and the frailty model. The developed model is applied to distance education student retention data. The results of the study show that frailty and study programs provide considerable diversity in explaining thetotal diversity of the model. It can be concluded that frailty needs to be considered by UT to improve the quality of services to students. In addition, other covariates that have a significant effect on UT student learning retention modeling are age, domicile, gender, GPA, marital status, employment status, number of credits taken, and number of registered courses.
N-Level Structural Equation Models (nSEM): The Effect of Sample Size on the Parameter Estimation in Latent Random-Intercept Model
Eminita, Viarti;
Saefuddin, Asep;
Sadik, Kusman;
Syafitri, Utami Dyah
InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol 6, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah
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DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v6i1.38914
Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) is claimed to address hierarchical data structures and latent response variables, but it becomes unstable with an increasing number of levels. N-Level SEM (nSEM) is an SEM framework designed to handle a growing number of levels in the model. The nSEM framework uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method for parameter estimation, which requires a large sample size and correct model specification. Therefore, it is essential to consider the necessary minimal sample size to ensure accurate and efficient parameter estimation in the nSEM model. This study examined how sample size affects the performance of parameter estimators in nSEM models. We propose a method to evaluate the effect of many environments to estimate the results of factor loadings and environmental variance produced by the model. In addition, we also assess the impact of environment size on the estimation results of factor loadings and individual variance. The results were then applied to actual data on student mathematics learning motivation in Depok. The findings show that neither the number of environments nor the size of the environment affects the performance of fixed parameter estimation in the nSEM model. nSEM indicates excellent performance in estimating environmental variance at level 2 when the number of environments increases. Conversely, increasing the size of the environment worsens the performance of estimating individual variance parameters. Overall, the nSEM framework for the latent random-intercept (LatenRI) model performs well with increasing sample sizes. The application data on LatenRI models show almost similar estimation results.Keywords: Hierarchical data; Latent random intercept model; Multilevel structural equation modeling; n-Level structural equation modeling.AbstrakMultilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) diklaim dapat mengatasi struktur data hierarki dan variabel respons laten, namun menjadi tidak stabil dengan bertambahnya jumlah level. N-Level SEM (nSEM) adalah kerangka kerja SEM yang dirancang untuk menangani semakin banyak level dalam model. Kerangka kerja nSEM menggunakan metode Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) untuk estimasi parameter, yang memerlukan ukuran sampel yang besar dan spesifikasi model yang benar. Oleh karena itu, penting untuk mempertimbangkan ukuran sampel minimal yang diperlukan untuk memastikan estimasi parameter yang akurat dan efisien dalam model nSEM. Studi ini menguji bagaimana ukuran sampel mempengaruhi kinerja penduga parameter dalam model nSEM. Kami mengusulkan metode untuk mengevaluasi pengaruh banyak lingkungan dalam memperkirakan hasil factor loadings dan varians lingkungan yang dihasilkan oleh model. Selain itu, kami juga menilai dampak ukuran lingkungan terhadap hasil estimasi factor loadings dan varians individu. Hasilnya kemudian diterapkan pada data aktual motivasi belajar matematika siswa di Depok. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa baik jumlah lingkungan maupun ukuran lingkungan tidak mempengaruhi kinerja estimasi parameter tetap pada model nSEM. nSEM menunjukkan kinerja yang sangat baik dalam memperkirakan varians lingkungan pada level 2 ketika jumlah lingkungan meningkat. Sebaliknya, peningkatan ukuran lingkungan akan memperburuk kinerja pendugaan parameter varians individu. Secara keseluruhan, kerangka nSEM untuk model intersepsi acak laten (LatenRI) bekerja dengan baik dengan meningkatnya ukuran sampel. Data penerapan model LatenRI menunjukkan hasil estimasi yang hampir serupa.Kata Kunci: Data hirarki; Model intersep acak laten; Model persamaan structural multilevel; Model persamaan structural n-level. 2020MSC: 62D99
Perbandingan Kinerja Model Berbasis RNN pada Peramalan Data Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia: Performance Comparison of RNN-Based Models in Forecasting Indonesian Economic and Financial Data
Alkahfi, Cahya;
Kurnia, Anang;
Saefuddin, Asep
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): MALCOM October 2024
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia
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DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v4i4.1415
Peramalan deret waktu merupakan salah satu elemen kunci dalam analisis ekonomi dan keuangan. memungkinkan pemangku kepentingan untuk membuat perkiraan terhadap berbagai indikator ekonomi sebelum data resmi dirilis. Dalam konteks ini, model pembelajaran mesin seperti Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), dan Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) menunjukkan potensi yang menjanjikan dalam memprediksi data deret waktu. Sejumlah penelitian juga menegaskan bahwa LSTM dan GRU mampu mengungguli kinerja RNN. Kedua model tersebut memiliki mekanisme untuk mengatasi masalah vanishing gradient yang sering ditemui pada model RNN konvensional. Penelitian ini menitikberatkan untuk menguji kinerja ketiga model tersebut pada data-data yang ada di Indonesia. Agar hasil lebih komprehensif, penelitian ini akan menguji model pada tiga jenis data yang berbeda meliputi IHSG, nilai ekspor dan PDB. Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa secara keseluruhan, model GRU menunjukkan kinerja terbaik, diikuti oleh model LSTM yang juga kompetitif dibandingkan RNN. Selain akurasi, model GRU dan LSTM juga menonjol dalam hal stabilitas kinerja, ditandai dengan simpangan baku yang relatif kecil jika dibandingkan dengan RNN. Keunggulan ini menjadi semakin signifikan terutama saat diterapkan pada model PDB dimana hanya tersedia untuk periode waktu yang pendek.
Ekonomi Lokal dan Pembangunan Pedesaan di Dusun Berambai, Kalimantan Timur: The Local Economy and Rural Development in Berambai Hamlet, East Kalimantan
Arman Arman;
Asep Saefuddin
Society Vol 8 No 2 (2020): Society
Publisher : Laboratorium Rekayasa Sosial, Jurusan Sosiologi, FISIP Universitas Bangka Belitung
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DOI: 10.33019/society.v8i2.202
The role of the local economy gets eroded due to the inclusion of capitalization in rural areas. This research examines the coal mining industry's influence on the local economy's existence in Berambai Hamlet, Bukit Pariaman Village, Tenggarong Seberang Sub-district, Kutai Kartanegara Regency, East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. This research uses qualitative research methods; meanwhile, data collection methods use field observation and in-depth interviews. Interviews were conducted in stages through a snowball sampling to strengthen the observations' results. The results show that the local economy and livelihood in Berambai Hamlet are under pressure and eroded due to coal mining activities. Livelihood products shrank drastically, especially fish and rice, due to mining waste polluting rivers and agricultural land conversion to mining areas. Furthermore, other sources of income from farmworkers are not enough to fulfill the needs. The government needs to protect their livelihoods as a driving force for the local economy by integrating nature-based life. The government needs to develop local economic potentials, such as tourism areas, crafts, and artworks. The government also needs to strengthen village institutions. It must be carried out together with mining companies seriously. Furthermore, the government needs to maintain the unity of rural spatial and spatial planning.
Epidemiologi Hawar Daun Bibit Pinus Merkusii yang Disebabkan oleh Pestalotia theae
Sutarman;
Hadi, Soetrisno;
Saefuddin, Asep;
Achmad;
Suryani, Ani
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2004)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)
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The objectives of the study are as follows: to know the interrelationships between the weather components as well as Pestalotia theae's aerial conidiospore population and the development of needle blight on Pinus merkusii seedlings, and to determine the effect of nursery site on the early development of the disease. Two week's average without interval model is the most reliable model to be used for determining the interrelationship between the development of the disease severity and the weather components. Light duration, rain fall, relative humidity and temperature are the weather components significantly affect the increase of the disease severity. The nursery in Pongpoklandak, Cianjur (26,5 - 30,5 oC; RH: 92-98 %), West Java, is the most optimal location for the development of the disease. To maintain the Disease Index at the most about 25 on seedlings over 6 months old, is the key factor for the successful management of needle blight on P. merkusii seedlings in the nursery.
Optimalisasi Pemanfaatan Lahan Kehutanan dalam Rangka Peningkatan Kualitas Lingkungan dan Kesejahteraan Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Desa Sekitar Hutan: Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Sumedang
Rajati, Tati;
Kusmana, Cecep;
Darusman, Dudung;
Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2006)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)
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To reserve forest land and improve people's income, Perum Perhutani Sumedang regency, together with the people surrounding the forest, makes a program to utilize the forest by using an agroforestry system. For that reason, the researcher is interested in doing research about the type of crops that can optimize forest land. The objective of the research is to analyze the utilization of forest land optimally and improve the social welfare of the people surrounding the forest in Cipadayungan, Sumedang. The result of the research indicates that the degree of erosion in the research field at the slopes of (0-<15)% and (15-<30)% is still under tolerated erosion, but the slope of .30% is beyond tolerated erosion. Types of crops that can be used to utilize the land without clearing grass growing on the forest floor are vanilla and coffee. Those plants are productive crops, while grass can protect the land against erosion.
AN APPLICATION OF GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR CLUSTERING OBSERVATIONS WITH INCOMPLETE DATA
Frisca Rizki Ananda;
Asep Saefuddin;
Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)
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DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v1i1.48
Cluster analysis is a method to classify observations into several clusters. A common strategy for clustering the observations uses distance as a similarity index. However distance approach cannot be applied when data is not complete. Genetic Algorithm is applied by involving variance (GACV) in order to solve this problem. This study employed GACV on Iris data that was introduced by Sir Ronald Fisher. Clustering the incomplete data was implemented on data which was produced by deleting some values of Iris data. The algorithm was developed under R 3.0.2 software and got satisfying result for clustering complete data with 95.99% sensitivity and 98% consistency. GACV could be applied to cluster observations with missing value without filling in the missing value or excluding these observations. Performance on clustering incomplete observations is also satisfying but tends to decrease as the proportion of incomplete values increases. The proportion of incomplete values should be less than or equal to 40% to get sensitivity and consistency not less than 90. Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Genetic Algorithm, Incomplete Data.
THE BEST GLOBAL AND LOCAL VARIABLES OF THE MIXED GEOGRAPHICALLY AND TEMPORALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL
Nuramaliyah Nuramaliyah;
Asep Saefuddin;
Muhammad Nur Aidi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 3 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)
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DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i3.564
Geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) is a method used when there is spatial and temporal diversity in an observation. GTWR model just consider the local influences of spatial-temporal independent variables on dependent variable. In some cases, the model not only about local influences but there are the global influences of spatial-temporal variables too, so that mixed geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR) model more suitable to use. This study aimed to determine the best global and local variables in MGTWR and to determine the model to be used in North Sumatra’s poverty cases in 2010 to 2015. The result show that the Unemployment rate and labor force participation rates are global variables. Whereas the variable literacy rate, school enrollment rates and households buying rice for poor (raskin) are local variables. Furthermore, Based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) showed that MGTWR better than GTWR when it used in North Sumatra’s poverty cases.
PEMODELAN STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING DENGAN LASSO DAN GROUP LASSO UNTUK PENDUGAAN CURAH HUJAN
M. Yunus;
Asep Saefuddin;
Agus M Soleh
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 4 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)
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DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i4.724
One of the rainfall prediction techniques is the Statistical Downscaling Modeling (SDS). SDS modeling is one of the applications of modeling with covariates conditions that are generally large and not independent. The problems that will be encountered is the problem of ill-conditional data i.e multicollinearity and the high correlation between variables. The case of highly correlated data causes a linear regression coefficient estimators obtained to have a large variance. This research was conducted to make the statistical downscaling modeling using the lasso and group lasso for the prediction of rainfall. Group of the covariate scenario is applied based on the adjacent area, the high correlation between covariates and correlation between covariates and responses, and also the addition of dummy variables. Scenario six (grouping which is done by considering the covariates that have a positive correlation to the response is divided into 3 groups, 1 individual and the covariates that are negatively correlated with the response are divided into 2 groups, 1 individual) is better than the other scenarios in linear modeling without a dummy. Then, linear modeling with a dummy is better than without a dummy for both techniques. In linear modeling with a dummy, the Group lasso technique can be considered more in SDs modeling, because the difference in the RMSEP statistical value and the correlation coefficient value is significant.
Analyzing multilevel model of educational data: Teachers’ ability effect on students’ mathematical learning motivation
Eminita, Viarti;
Saefuddin, Asep;
Sadik, Kusman;
Syafitri, Utami Dyah
Journal on Mathematics Education Vol. 15 No. 2 (2024): Journal on Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Sriwijaya in collaboration with Indonesian Mathematical Society (IndoMS)
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DOI: 10.22342/jme.v15i2.pp431-450
Motivation to learn mathematics decreased due to the inability of teachers to implement innovative learning models and techniques. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of teachers' ability on students' motivation to learn mathematics by using quantitative methods and survey approaches. There were 32 mathematics teachers and 542 students in the 24 schools within the Depok region, selected as respondents through a stratified random sampling method. The research instruments of two questionnaires of teachers’ competence and students’ learning motivation were distributed to the respondents. Data analysis was conducted to test the random effect of teachers’ ability on students’ motivation to learn mathematics by using the effect of teachers’ random intercepts and competence as models 1 and 2, respectively. These two models were analyzed using the n-level Structural Equation Model (nSEM), and the result showed that model 2 was the best one to investigate the random effect of teachers’ ability and students’ learning motivation. The data analysis showed that the variance among teachers’ ability (0,0027) was less than learning motivation among students (0.0597). These findings indicated that the motivation levels of students taught by the same teacher varied significantly, whereas the effects of the teachers were relatively homogeneous. In other words, teachers’ ability was somewhat the same in increasing students’ learning motivation. Based on these findings, this research work suggests teachers keep improving their teaching techniques. Hence, students will be well motivated to learn so that the learning objectives will be well achieved.