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Analisis Data Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Pendekatan Regresi Kuantil Spasial Lismayani Usman; Asep Saefuddin; Anik Djuraidah
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 4, No. 2, Juli, 2023 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v4i2.27573

Abstract

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) often shows spatial patterns. In a spatial perspective, spatial effects consist of of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. To address the problems, this study uses spatial autoregressive quantile regression/SARQR model. SARQR is a method that combines Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) modeling with quantile regression. There are two methods that can be used to estimate the parameters of the SARQR model, namely Two Stage Quantile Regression (2SQR) and Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression (IVQR). The simulation results showed that IVQR method is better than 2SQR method. IVQR provides a smaller value and variance of bias. Furthermore, IVQR method is applied to Java’s GRDP data on 2019. The results showed that the number of workers significantly influences Java’s GRDP. The highest quantile verification skill score (QVSS) value is 0.713 when τ =0.75. It means that in the 75% quantile modeling, the model can describe the GRDP diversity of 71.3%.
Mixed Models of Non-Proportional Hazard and Application in The Open Distance Education Students Retention Data Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih; Anang Kurnia; Asep Saefuddin; I Wayan Mangku
Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society VOLUME 28 NUMBER 3 (NOVEMBER 2022)
Publisher : IndoMS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22342/jims.28.3.1185.323-344

Abstract

The problem that arises in the Cox model is that there are more than two types of covariates and the presence of random effects is a non-proportional hazard (NPH). One example of a case that involves many factors is student retention. Low student retention can lead to dropping out of college or failure in completing studies. The purpose of this study is to overcome the problem of NPH caused by the presenceof time-independent covariates, time-dependent covariates, and random effects. The research method uses simulation. Some of the modified models are the stratified Cox model, the extended Cox model, and the frailty model. The developed model is applied to distance education student retention data. The results of the study show that frailty and study programs provide considerable diversity in explaining thetotal diversity of the model. It can be concluded that frailty needs to be considered by UT to improve the quality of services to students. In addition, other covariates that have a significant effect on UT student learning retention modeling are age, domicile, gender, GPA, marital status, employment status, number of credits taken, and number of registered courses.
N-Level Structural Equation Models (nSEM): The Effect of Sample Size on the Parameter Estimation in Latent Random-Intercept Model Eminita, Viarti; Saefuddin, Asep; Sadik, Kusman; Syafitri, Utami Dyah
InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics Vol 6, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/inprime.v6i1.38914

Abstract

Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) is claimed to address hierarchical data structures and latent response variables, but it becomes unstable with an increasing number of levels. N-Level SEM (nSEM) is an SEM framework designed to handle a growing number of levels in the model. The nSEM framework uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method for parameter estimation, which requires a large sample size and correct model specification. Therefore, it is essential to consider the necessary minimal sample size to ensure accurate and efficient parameter estimation in the nSEM model. This study examined how sample size affects the performance of parameter estimators in nSEM models. We propose a method to evaluate the effect of many environments to estimate the results of factor loadings and environmental variance produced by the model. In addition, we also assess the impact of environment size on the estimation results of factor loadings and individual variance. The results were then applied to actual data on student mathematics learning motivation in Depok. The findings show that neither the number of environments nor the size of the environment affects the performance of fixed parameter estimation in the nSEM model. nSEM indicates excellent performance in estimating environmental variance at level 2 when the number of environments increases. Conversely, increasing the size of the environment worsens the performance of estimating individual variance parameters. Overall, the nSEM framework for the latent random-intercept (LatenRI) model performs well with increasing sample sizes. The application data on LatenRI models show almost similar estimation results.Keywords: Hierarchical data; Latent random intercept model; Multilevel structural equation modeling; n-Level structural equation modeling.AbstrakMultilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) diklaim dapat mengatasi struktur data hierarki dan variabel respons laten, namun menjadi tidak stabil dengan bertambahnya jumlah level. N-Level SEM (nSEM) adalah kerangka kerja SEM yang dirancang untuk menangani semakin banyak level dalam model. Kerangka kerja nSEM menggunakan metode Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) untuk estimasi parameter, yang memerlukan ukuran sampel yang besar dan spesifikasi model yang benar. Oleh karena itu, penting untuk mempertimbangkan ukuran sampel minimal yang diperlukan untuk memastikan estimasi parameter yang akurat dan efisien dalam model nSEM. Studi ini menguji bagaimana ukuran sampel mempengaruhi kinerja penduga parameter dalam model nSEM. Kami mengusulkan metode untuk mengevaluasi pengaruh banyak lingkungan dalam memperkirakan hasil factor loadings  dan varians lingkungan yang dihasilkan oleh model. Selain itu, kami juga menilai dampak ukuran lingkungan terhadap hasil estimasi factor loadings dan varians individu. Hasilnya kemudian diterapkan pada data aktual motivasi belajar matematika siswa di Depok. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa baik jumlah lingkungan maupun ukuran lingkungan tidak mempengaruhi kinerja estimasi parameter tetap pada model nSEM. nSEM menunjukkan kinerja yang sangat baik dalam memperkirakan varians lingkungan pada level 2 ketika jumlah lingkungan meningkat. Sebaliknya, peningkatan ukuran lingkungan akan memperburuk kinerja pendugaan parameter varians individu. Secara keseluruhan, kerangka nSEM untuk model intersepsi acak laten (LatenRI) bekerja dengan baik dengan meningkatnya ukuran sampel. Data penerapan model LatenRI menunjukkan hasil estimasi yang hampir serupa.Kata Kunci: Data hirarki; Model intersep acak laten; Model persamaan structural multilevel; Model persamaan structural n-level. 2020MSC: 62D99
Perbandingan Kinerja Model Berbasis RNN pada Peramalan Data Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia: Performance Comparison of RNN-Based Models in Forecasting Indonesian Economic and Financial Data Alkahfi, Cahya; Kurnia, Anang; Saefuddin, Asep
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): MALCOM October 2024
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v4i4.1415

Abstract

Peramalan deret waktu merupakan salah satu elemen kunci dalam analisis ekonomi dan keuangan. memungkinkan pemangku kepentingan untuk membuat perkiraan terhadap berbagai indikator ekonomi sebelum data resmi dirilis. Dalam konteks ini, model pembelajaran mesin seperti Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), dan Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) menunjukkan potensi yang menjanjikan dalam memprediksi data deret waktu. Sejumlah penelitian juga menegaskan bahwa LSTM dan GRU mampu mengungguli kinerja RNN. Kedua model tersebut memiliki mekanisme untuk mengatasi masalah vanishing gradient yang sering ditemui pada model RNN konvensional. Penelitian ini menitikberatkan untuk menguji kinerja ketiga model tersebut pada data-data yang ada di Indonesia. Agar hasil lebih komprehensif, penelitian ini akan menguji model pada tiga jenis data yang berbeda meliputi IHSG, nilai ekspor dan PDB. Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa secara keseluruhan, model GRU menunjukkan kinerja terbaik, diikuti oleh model LSTM yang juga kompetitif dibandingkan RNN. Selain akurasi, model GRU dan LSTM juga menonjol dalam hal stabilitas kinerja, ditandai dengan simpangan baku yang relatif kecil jika dibandingkan dengan RNN. Keunggulan ini menjadi semakin signifikan terutama saat diterapkan pada model PDB dimana hanya tersedia untuk periode waktu yang pendek.
Ekonomi Lokal dan Pembangunan Pedesaan di Dusun Berambai, Kalimantan Timur: The Local Economy and Rural Development in Berambai Hamlet, East Kalimantan Arman Arman; Asep Saefuddin
Society Vol 8 No 2 (2020): Society
Publisher : Laboratorium Rekayasa Sosial, Jurusan Sosiologi, FISIP Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/society.v8i2.202

Abstract

The role of the local economy gets eroded due to the inclusion of capitalization in rural areas. This research examines the coal mining industry's influence on the local economy's existence in Berambai Hamlet, Bukit Pariaman Village, Tenggarong Seberang Sub-district, Kutai Kartanegara Regency, East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. This research uses qualitative research methods; meanwhile, data collection methods use field observation and in-depth interviews. Interviews were conducted in stages through a snowball sampling to strengthen the observations' results. The results show that the local economy and livelihood in Berambai Hamlet are under pressure and eroded due to coal mining activities. Livelihood products shrank drastically, especially fish and rice, due to mining waste polluting rivers and agricultural land conversion to mining areas. Furthermore, other sources of income from farmworkers are not enough to fulfill the needs. The government needs to protect their livelihoods as a driving force for the local economy by integrating nature-based life. The government needs to develop local economic potentials, such as tourism areas, crafts, and artworks. The government also needs to strengthen village institutions. It must be carried out together with mining companies seriously. Furthermore, the government needs to maintain the unity of rural spatial and spatial planning.
Epidemiologi Hawar Daun Bibit Pinus Merkusii yang Disebabkan oleh Pestalotia theae Sutarman; Hadi, Soetrisno; Saefuddin, Asep; Achmad; Suryani, Ani
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2004)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (183.474 KB)

Abstract

The objectives of the study are as follows: to know the interrelationships between the weather components as well as Pestalotia theae's aerial conidiospore population and the development of needle blight on Pinus merkusii seedlings, and to determine the effect of nursery site on the early development of the disease. Two week's average without interval model is the most reliable model to be used for determining the interrelationship between the development of the disease severity and the weather components. Light duration, rain fall, relative humidity and temperature are the weather components significantly affect the increase of the disease severity. The nursery in Pongpoklandak, Cianjur (26,5 - 30,5 oC; RH: 92-98 %), West Java, is the most optimal location for the development of the disease. To maintain the Disease Index at the most about 25 on seedlings over 6 months old, is the key factor for the successful management of needle blight on P. merkusii seedlings in the nursery.
Optimalisasi Pemanfaatan Lahan Kehutanan dalam Rangka Peningkatan Kualitas Lingkungan dan Kesejahteraan Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat Desa Sekitar Hutan: Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Sumedang Rajati, Tati; Kusmana, Cecep; Darusman, Dudung; Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2006)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (337.925 KB)

Abstract

To reserve forest land and improve people's income, Perum Perhutani Sumedang regency, together with the people surrounding the forest, makes a program to utilize the forest by using an agroforestry system. For that reason, the researcher is interested in doing research about the type of crops that can optimize forest land. The objective of the research is to analyze the utilization of forest land optimally and improve the social welfare of the people surrounding the forest in Cipadayungan, Sumedang. The result of the research indicates that the degree of erosion in the research field at the slopes of (0-<15)% and (15-<30)% is still under tolerated erosion, but the slope of .30% is beyond tolerated erosion. Types of crops that can be used to utilize the land without clearing grass growing on the forest floor are vanilla and coffee. Those plants are productive crops, while grass can protect the land against erosion.
Analyzing multilevel model of educational data: Teachers’ ability effect on students’ mathematical learning motivation Eminita, Viarti; Saefuddin, Asep; Sadik, Kusman; Syafitri, Utami Dyah
Journal on Mathematics Education Vol. 15 No. 2 (2024): Journal on Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Sriwijaya in collaboration with Indonesian Mathematical Society (IndoMS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22342/jme.v15i2.pp431-450

Abstract

Motivation to learn mathematics decreased due to the inability of teachers to implement innovative learning models and techniques. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of teachers' ability on students' motivation to learn mathematics by using quantitative methods and survey approaches. There were 32 mathematics teachers and 542 students in the 24 schools within the Depok region, selected as respondents through a stratified random sampling method. The research instruments of two questionnaires of teachers’ competence and students’ learning motivation were distributed to the respondents. Data analysis was conducted to test the random effect of teachers’ ability on students’ motivation to learn mathematics by using the effect of teachers’ random intercepts and competence as models 1 and 2, respectively. These two models were analyzed using the n-level Structural Equation Model (nSEM), and the result showed that model 2 was the best one to investigate the random effect of teachers’ ability and students’ learning motivation. The data analysis showed that the variance among teachers’ ability (0,0027) was less than learning motivation among students (0.0597). These findings indicated that the motivation levels of students taught by the same teacher varied significantly, whereas the effects of the teachers were relatively homogeneous. In other words, teachers’ ability was somewhat the same in increasing students’ learning motivation. Based on these findings, this research work suggests teachers keep improving their teaching techniques. Hence, students will be well motivated to learn so that the learning objectives will be well achieved.
LR-GLASSO Method for Solving Multiple Explanatory Variables of the Village Development Index Yunus, M.; Soleh, Agus M; Saefuddin, Asep; Erfiani
Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol 8 No 2 (2024): April 2024
Publisher : Ikatan Ahli Informatika Indonesia (IAII)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29207/resti.v8i2.5656

Abstract

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are developments that maintain sustainable improvement in society’s economic, social, and environmental welfare. Kemendes PDTT RI has issued the Village Development Index (VDI) to provide information and the status of village progress to support village development to improve the National SDGS. Modeling with multiple explanatory variables causes a high correlation between explanatory variables, multicollinearity, and coefficient estimation results, which have a large variance and overfitting in the prediction results. The modeling solution uses LASSO and GLASSO. The binary categorical response data use binary logistic regression (LR), so LR-LASSO and LR-GLASSO are used. North Maluku Province has a VDI ranking that tends to fall in 2018-2022. On the basis of the mean and variance of the coefficient estimation results and misclassification errors, LR-GLASSO is better than LR-LASSO and LR. LR-GLASSO is recommended for analyzing VDI data because it has many explanatory variables and the correlation between them is relatively high. The Indonesian government recommendation, if it is to increase the status of VDI in Indonesia, especially in the north Maluku province, is to increase the number of electricity users, food and beverage stores, and other cooperatives. The Indonesian government also needs to pay attention to villages relatively far from the regent's office, between food and beverage stalls, and supporting health centers, because they still need to be developed compared to other villages, and more than 50% of the villages are underdeveloped. If the Village SDGs are formulated by increasing the VDI status, it will support the achievement of the SDGs goals nationally.
Ketahanan Ekonomi Nasional Masa dan Pasca Covid-19 Melalui Penguatan UMKM Indonesia: (National Economic Resilience During and Post-Covid-19 Through Strengthening Indonesian MSMEs) Arman Arman; Ni Nyoman Sawitri; Asep Saefuddin
e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi Vol. 10 No. 2 (2023): e-JEBA Volume 10 Number 2 Year 2023
Publisher : UPT Penerbitan Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/ejeba.v10i2.43344

Abstract

The Coronavirus disease-19 (Covid-19) crisis has an impact on the economic performance of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) at local and national levels. MSME actors are trying to survive the crisis through business efficiency and the national economic rescue program (PEN). This paper aims to (1) examine the resilience of MSMEs against a wave of crisis (2) the right policy formula to strengthen the competitiveness of MSMEs. This research uses descriptive qualitative method using secondary data. The data is sourced from the Ministry of Small and Medium Enterprises Cooperatives, Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the National Planning and Development Agency (Bappenas), national and international scientific journals and media sources. Slowly, the condition of MSMEs began to rise from the Covid-19 crisis through the PEN program policy which ran in September-December 2020, economic growth was better in the fourth quarter of 2020 by -2.19 percent (yoy), better than the growth in the third quarter 2020 by -3.49 percent (yoy). The distribution of the PEN program for MSMEs was successful and effective in maintaining the resilience of MSMEs from the Covid-19 crisis. The government needs to maintain economic momentum, through the synergy of MSMEs with State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN), digitalization and the MSME global supply chain as well as increasing the PEN budget for MSMEs. On the other hand, the government still has a tough task to cut logistics costs which are still relatively high when compared to several ASEAN countries.
Co-Authors . Marzuki . Sutriyati Achmad ACHMAD . Achmad Ramzy Tadjoedin adwendi, satria june Agus M Soleh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agustifa Zea Tazliqoh Ahmad A. Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aji H. Wigena Aji Hamim Wigena Alif Supandi Alinda F. M. Zain Alkahfi, Cahya Ananda Shafira Anang Kurnia Andres Purmalino Ani Suryani Anik Djuraidah Arief Daryanto Arista Marlince Tamonob Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Arnita Arnita Azagi, Ilham Alifa Bagus Sartono Bambang Indriyanto Basita Ginting Budhi Purwandaya, Budhi Budi Marwoto Budi Susetyo Bunasor Sanim Cece Sumantri Chalid Talib Citra Jaya Daowen Zhang Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih Diah Krisnatuti Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum, Doni Suhartono Dudung Darusman Eka Intan Kumala Putri Embay Rohaeti Enny Kristiani Enny Kristiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Eri Purnomohadi Etih Sudarnika Etty Riani Euis Sunarti Eva Z Yusuf Fatah Sulaiman Fitrah Ernawati Fitrah Ernawati Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Fulazzaky, Tahira Gerry Alfa Dito H. R. Eddie Gurnadi HAJRIAL ASWIDINNOOR Hanny Nurlatifah Harapin Hafid H. Hardiansyah . Hardinsyah Hari Wijayanto Hartoyo, harry Hasnataeni, Yunia Hendra Prasetya Hengki Muradi Heny Suwarsinah Hermanto Siregar Hidayat Syarief Hilman Dwi Anggana Husaini . I Made Sumertajaya I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Ida Mariati Hutabarat Indahwati Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jajang Jajang Jodi Vanden Eng Joko Affandi Joko Affandi Joko Sutrisno JOKO SUTRISNO Kevin Alifviansyah Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kristiani, Enny Krittiya Duangmanee Kusman Sadik Lia Budimulyati Salman Lia Ratih Kusuma Dewi Lilik Noor Yuliati Lismayani Usman Luh Putu Widya Adnyani Luh Putu Widya Adnyani Lukmanul Hakim Lukmanul Hakim Lukmanul Hakim M. Yunus M. Yunus Maghfiroh, Firda Aulia Mangara Tambunan Margono Slamet Marimin , Marizsa Herlina Marliati . Marliati Marliati Mirnawati Sudarwanto Muggy David Cristian Ginzel Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Nur Aldi Muradi, Hengki Musa Hubeis mutiah, siti Ni Nyoman Sawitri Nimmi Zulbainarni Ningsih, Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ninuk Purnaningsih Nirawita Untari Nunung Nuryartono Nuramaliyah, Nuramaliyah Nurul Hidayati Nusar Hajarisman Pang S. Asngari Pien Budiyanto Prabowo Tjitropranoto Pradina, Fathia Anggriani Priyadi Kardono Purnomohadi, Eri R. Ruswandi Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahmadi Sunoko Rahmadi Sunoko Ratna Megawangi Rimun Wibowo Ristu Haiban Hirzi Rita Kusriastuti Rita Rahmawati Rizal Syarief Rizal Syarief Rizka Rahmaida Ronny Rachman Noor Rudy Priyanto S. Damanhur, Didin Santun R.P. Sitorus SANTUN R.P. SITORUS Sarah Putri Sarsidi Sastrosumarjo Sausan Nisrina Setiadi Djohar Setiawan Setiawan Siti Mutiah Siti Sundari Sitti Nurhaliza Sjafri Mangkuprawira Sjafri Mangkuprawira Soedijanto Padmowihardjo Soekirman Soekirman Soetrisno Hadi Sony Sunaryo Sri Yusnita Burhan Suhartono Suhartono . Sumardjo Sumarjo Gatot Irianto Sumartono Sumartono Sutarman Sutarman . Syafri Mangkuprawira Syafri Mangkuprawira Syarifah Iis Aisyah TADJOEDIN, ACHMAD RAMZY Tagor Alamsyah Harahap Talib, Chalid Tati Rajati Tati Suprapti Tiyas Yulita triguna, gunadi Ujang Sumarwan Umi Cahyaningsih Upik Kesumawati Hadi Utami Dyah Syafitri Viarti Eminita Wahida Ainun Mumtaza William A. Hawley Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yani Nurhadryani Yekti Widyaningsih Yenni Angraini Yudhistira Arie Wijaya Yuni Ros Bangun Yusuf, Eva Z Zinggara hidayat