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Journal : Journal of Data Insights

Forecasting Red Onion Prices in Riau Islands Using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method: Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah di Kepulauan Riau Menggunakan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Inta Nur Kholifah, Revika; athoni Amri, Ihsan F; Al Haris, M; Izzah, Nasyiatul; Fazza Baita, Miftakhiyah; Nurhalisa, Siti
Journal of Data Insights Vol 2 No 2 (2024): Journal of Data Insights
Publisher : Department of Sains Data UNIMUS Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jodi.v2i2.412

Abstract

The price of shallots is one of the crucial commodities that affects economic stability and community welfare in the Riau Islands. The main factors influencing shallot production are seed variety, land, and weather. This study aims to forecast the price of shallots in the Riau Islands using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. The data used in this study is sourced from official data and covers a specific period to ensure the accuracy of the forecasting model. The SARIMA (0 1 1) (0 1 1)5 model with the smallest AIC of 2211.59 was selected as the best model based on data analysis and model performance evaluation, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.690835 percent, indicating that the model's ability to predict shallot prices in the Riau Islands is very accurate. The prediction results indicate that the price of shallots will decrease in the coming days according to the developed model. Based on these results, this forecast is expected to serve as a reference for the government and market participants in decision-making related to the production, distribution, and control of shallot prices in the Riau Islands.
Co-Authors Abdullah, Shodiq Achmad Reza Hutama Al Faruqi Adnan Malaha Adriyani, Zuanita Afifa, Erlina Laily Nur Agus Mirwan ahmad, novita Aini, Lutfiyah Qilfa Khoiril Akbar, Syarifil Hidayatul Al Fath, Musa Rizal Al Haris, M Alfaidah, Catryna Alfarah, Aya Ghina Amalia, Shofiya Amanda, Deby Amiludin, Amiludin Andriani, Nur athoni Amri, Ihsan F Azka, Ibnu Azka Baehaqi, Ridwan Baldan Haramain, Fathur Basri, Wahyuni Candrika, Ariibah Radita Ayu Damayanti, Lutfi Darmawati Ayu Indraswari Deddy Junaedi Dessy, Sheilvina Milliviyanthi Dewi Rokhmah Doni Rahmat Wicakso Endang Sri Lestari Erfan Efendi Erlina Laily Nur Afifa Fadhilaturrahmi Fadhilaturrahmi Fahruddin Fahruddin Fakhiroh, Lailah Izza Farida Wahyu Ningtyias, Farida Wahyu Fazza Baita, Miftakhiyah Febriana, Anita Gunawan Wibisono Handayani, Ririn Yanti Hariyanto, Eka Hendri Kurniawan, Hendri Hidayati, Fippy Hidayatullah Hutama, Dilyan Ardi I Gusti Ayu Karnasih Ikhsan, Muhammad Zeva Noer Ikhsan Imamah, Dina Yusrotul Inta Nur Kholifah, Revika Izzah, Nasyiatul jahrah Jannah, Hanifah Raudhatul jannah, lailatul Kiptiyah, Khoirotul Kirana Kirana, Kirana kristi liani purwanti, kristi liani Kurnitai, Kurnitai Lailatul Fitriyah Lestari, Yunita Dwi Lutfiana, Evi Luthfiyah Luthfiyah Mufarizuddin Muh Faiq Abdala Diyaulhaq Nabila Huringiin Nasrul Amal Nisa, Nafidatun Nur Fidia, Hikmah Nurhansyah, Nimas Oktarisa Pratiwi, Farika Nadiya Putri, Ayu Mei Lisa Qoriyah, Nurul Rabsanjani, Abi Rahmi Hidayah, Rahmi Ramadayanti, Ramadayanti Reni Dwi Purnomowati Restanty, Dian Aby Rini Sri Mulyani Ristiana, Siti Ayu Rohmah, Siti Nurul Rusdial Marta Rustina, Siti Ayu Safi’in, Mohammad Saman, Miss Fatihah Steven, Syahrul Suherman, Bella Febrianty Putri Sumianto Sumianto Tsauri, Muhammad Shofyan Undang Prasetya Umara Wahyuny, Aprillya Warastuti, Rita Amini Wulandari, Ginayah