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Journal : Media Publikasi Promosi Kesehatan Indonesia (MPPKI)

A Stochastic Projection for Tuberculosis Elimination in Indonesia by 2030 Sasmita, Novi Reandy; Ramadani, Maya; Ikhwan, Muhammad; Munawwarah, Munawwarah; Rahayu, Latifah; Mardalena, Selvi; Ischaq Nabil Asshiddiqi, M.; Suyanto, Suyanto; Safira, Nanda
Media Publikasi Promosi Kesehatan Indonesia (MPPKI) Vol. 8 No. 11: NOVEMBER 2025 - Media Publikasi Promosi Kesehatan Indonesia (MPPKI)
Publisher : Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Muhammadiyah Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56338/mppki.v8i11.8548

Abstract

Introduction: Indonesia, with the world's second-highest tuberculosis (TB) burden, has targeted TB elimination (65 cases per 100,000) by 2030. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of achieving this goal by projecting TB incidence trends using a stochastic epidemic model that accounts for the uncertainties inherent in TB transmission dynamics in latent TB infections. Methods: The initial values for state variables and parameters were derived from a comprehensive literature review and calibrated against publicly available epidemiological data from the Indonesian Ministry of Health reports from 2018-2022. A Susceptible, Vaccinated, Three Exposed, Three Infectious, Recovered (SVE3I3R) model was developed, incorporating Gaussian noise into the exposed compartments to simulate real-world unpredictability in latent infection dynamics. The model was solved numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in R software. Key outcomes measured were the projected incidence of drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB). Results: Model projections suggest that the overall TB incidence rate will fall from 387 cases per 100,000 people in 2023 to a projected 320 cases per 100,000 by 2030. However, this remains far above the national target. While DS-TB cases decreased to 730,283, MDR-TB and XDR-TB cases were projected to surge dramatically to 120,939 cases and 104,651 individuals, respectively. The estimation signals a critical shift in the epidemic's profile. Conclusions: Indonesia is not on track to achieve its 2030 TB elimination target under current interventions. The alarming rise of drug-resistant TB necessitates an urgent, aggressive, and multifaceted policy response. This study underscores the critical value of incorporating stochasticity into epidemiological models for more realistic forecasting and public health planning in high-burden settings.
Co-Authors AD, Muhammad Irfan Adami, Farhan Agustiananda, Putu Ayu Pramanasari Agustin Pratama Sari, Dewi Ahmadi Sasmi, Aji Aji Ahmadi Sasmi Al Finsih, Muhamad Alfito, Revi Yulia Alfiyanto, Afif Ali Djamhuri Alpurqan Ambar Tri Ratnaningsih Andriani, Yulia Annisa, Ellis Aprilia, Sania Aulia, Destri Azwar Thaib Azwin, . Azzahra, Amalia Badri, Ainul Badriansyah, Rohmad Basri A. Gani, Basri A. Christianto, Mikael Immanuel Dara, Despinur Della Rulita Nurfaizana Dicky Iranto Dilova, Gisha Dwi Apriliani, Dwi Dwi Santoso, Rendi Dwipanilih, Rayi Ellianto, Mario Sariski Dwi Elva Rahmah Emy Sadjati, Emy Eni Suhesti Enny Insusanty Eno Suwarno Erika Takidah erlangga, Febrian Ervayenri Ervayenri Etty Gurendrawati, Etty Fadrizal Lubis Falah, Bahrul Falah, Mohammad Bachrul Fikoh, Windy Al Firdausi Rachmadania, Rizki Firnando Putra, Lukman Firnando, Lukman Fitriaa, Siti Nada Gunawan Widjaja Hadinoto Hadinoto Hamdi, Syaiful Hania Aminah, Hania Hanifah Ikhsani Hardianti, Sulis Hasanah, Alfiyyah Nur Hendri Gunawan Hidayatul Azizati Ika Lestari Ika Lestari Hutasuhut Ika Lestari, Ika Ikhsani, Putri Nabila Ilham, Farizi Indah Suryawati Irdaningsih, Irdaningsih Ischaq Nabil Asshiddiqi, M. Jofarhan, Muhammad Listyalina, Latifah Lukita, Jimmy Lumbantoruan, Ester Martupa Lusiyanti Lutfan Milzam, Ahmad Ma'mum, Sukron MAGHFIRAH, AFIATUN Mahatta, Afdhalia Mahmudi Mahmudi Mardalena, Selvi Marhaeningsih, Marhaeningsih Marsofiyati Marsofiyati, Marsofiyati Marwan Ramli Maulana Fansyuri Maulidya, Rulita Mikael Immanuel Christianto Muhammad Akmal Maulana Muhammad Gery Kemal Muhammad Zusanri Batubara Munawwarah Munawwarah, Munawwarah Musyaffi, Ayatullah Michael Nabila, Dhaifina nanda safira, nanda Nandang Nandang Nasution, Fadlan Nasution, Fahrurozi Nasution, Rahmi Padilah Nofrianto Nofrianto Novendra, Aldi Nur Hidayat Nuramalia Hasanah Nurmaulidar Nurmaulidar Prihatmadi, Sekarseta Priyanti, Dita Anisya Putra, Ajriansyah Putrama, Fala Rachmani, Nizza Nadya Radhiah, Radhiah Rafly Thabroni, Mochammad RAHAYU, LATIFAH Rahmad, Mardikola Tri Rahman, Yenni Ramadani, Maya Ramadhani, Dwi Hikmah Ranti, Permata Sari Rianto, Risky Rinaldi Zen, Abdullah Riswan Riswan Rizal Adi Saputra Rohmatuszahroh, Anita Intan Roni Faslah Rosnita Rosnita Roza Yulida S, Arland Saiful Amri Salam, Nurbeti Santa Fermana, Jesica Santoso, Rendi Dwi Saputra, T Murdani Sarah Aulia SARASWATI SARASWATI Sasmita, Novi Reandy Setyaningsih, Istianah Sholihah, Arif Budi Sibawaihi, Muhammad Silviana, Fijriani Siregar, Rachmi Kurnia Siswanto Siti Hasanah Siti Rusdiana Sitohang, Mutiah Khaira Sonia Sonia, Sonia Sri Dea Puspita Sri Rahayu Prastyaningsih Srikandi, Raya Suharyanto Suherdi Suherdi, Suherdi Sukma R.A, Dodi Sukma, Dodi SUSAN FEBRIANTINA, SUSAN Suwatno Suwatno Suyanti, Eva Suyanto Suyanto Suyono, Windy Permata Syafril Syafril Syahrini, Intan Syarifaturrahmatullah Syatria Adymas Pranajaya Tanjung, Nur Ainun Tri Ratnaningsih, Ambar Ulfa Usman, Tarmizi Wahyu Lestari Wani, Wani Wida Aristanti, Wida Wijaya, Delpi Winoto, Erlangga Yose Rizal Yunus, Firdaus M Yurievna, Gritcenko Lyubov Zulfataya, Muhammad