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Journal : JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING

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Application of Feature Selection and Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Rainfall Prediction in Jakarta Sulistyowati, Indah Dwi; Sunarno, Sunarno; Iqbal, Iqbal; Syamsuri, KGS M Nurs
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 9 No. 5 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v9i5.11000

Abstract

Accurate rainfall prediction plays a vital role in reducing disaster risks and supporting public preparedness, particularly in Jakarta where dense population and frequent floods cause serious economic and social impacts. In this study, weather data from the Kemayoran Meteorological Station covering 2004–2023 were analyzed to build rainfall prediction models using machine learning. Three classification algorithms were compared: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest, selected to represent linear, non-linear, and ensemble approaches. Feature selection was applied using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to identify the most relevant predictors. The models were evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation with metrics including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 Score, ROC AUC, and Cohen’s Kappa. The results indicate that Random Forest achieved the best overall performance with Accuracy of 0.7622, Precision around 0.70, Recall up to 0.63, F1 Score about 0.65, ROC AUC ranging from 0.8044 to 0.8171, and Cohen’s Kappa near 0.48. Logistic Regression also performed competitively with Accuracy of 0.7648, ROC AUC of 0.829, and Kappa of 0.49, while Decision Tree showed lower results with Accuracy of 0.6890 and ROC AUC of 0.6636. The RFE process successfully reduced 18 meteorological attributes to 5 influential features, mainly temperature and relative humidity, which were dominant in distinguishing rainfall events. These findings demonstrate that both Random Forest and Logistic Regression outperform Decision Tree, and Random Forest with RFE can be recommended as the most robust model for rainfall prediction in Jakarta.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abdul Waris Abdul Waris Afkar, Mufidul Agung M Agus Dwiyanto, Agus Agus Jatmiko Agyl, Muhammad AHMAD MUNIR Al-Qaida, Huzaima Alfarez Marchelian, Reyno Alifuddin, Muh. Amelianda, Amelianda Amri Amin Amrullah, Satrio Andi Paramita Guntur Andi Sukma Indah arifin arif Andi Karim Aryani, Intan Dwi Ashabul Kahpi Asmaul Husna Asrul Saputra Aulia, Muhammad Rafi AULIA, SITI Aziz Aziz Bintang Pradana Yosua, Panky Dagong, Muhammad Ihsan A. Daniel Happy Putra Daniel Useng Darmawati Darwis Dedy Farhamsa Desembardi, Faried Desi Fitasari Devi Devi, Devi Dewi Dewi Dewi Maya Sari Diah Retnowati Dian Dian Diantoro, Karno Dicky Wahyudi Didik Setyo Purwantoro Didit Suprihanto, Didit Djuniadi , Djuniadi Djuniadi Djuniadi Dwi Guntoro Dyah Prihartini Djenal Elsa Elsa Ery Wati Eti Hadiati Ewin Iskandar Fadli, Yossy Aulia Fahrizal Fahrizal Faisyah, Nur Fakhrizal Fakhrizal, Fakhrizal Fatimah, Jannatun Fauzah, Rauzatul Fauzi, Lilianty Febrianti, Ni Luh Riska Feddy Setio Pribadi Fitra, Safiatuddin Gevano, Daiva Paundra Hanif Hanif Haq, Habil Hasbullah Hasbullah Hazmal Herman, Hazmal Herlina Arifin Horas, Erwin Husnul Mubarak Ilahi, Andhika Putra Restu Imam Suelfikhar Ipung Permadi Irawan, Bayu Budi Irawan, Santi iskandar zulkarnaini Jafarudin, Ahmad Januar Juliansyah, Rommi Junaedi Muhidong Karnisih, Karnisih Kartika Pertama Sari Kasman Kasman Kausar, Kausar Khaeril Anwar Junaedi Khaeroni, Rany Khatifah Kitab Amelia Kurnia, Muhammad Lasmedi Afuan Ledjap, Maria Aryanthi Lestary, Ratna Ayu Dewi Liliandriani, Andi Lindawati Lindawati Maharani, Dewi Mahmud Achmad Mahmud Achmad, Mahmud Mahmudin, Lufsyi Mahyuddin Mahyuddin Makhrifah, Diana Marfiyana, Marfiyana Martha, Martha Maulana Putra Maulidin, Aula Mauloeddin Afna, Mauloeddin Mazni, Deni Irda Melati, Reffi Meliyana Meliyana, Meliyana Miftahul Jannah Mil, Gibson Mira, Prilly Virgina Mochammad Imron Awalludin Moerad, Siti Huwayda Mohamad Riva N. Muammar, Rajib Mucthar, Helmi Muh. Fajar, Muh. Muhammad Faisal Muhammad Ihsan Andi Dagong Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Isya Muhammad Nur Fajar Muhammad Rizal Muhammad Syahrul Ulum Muhammad Tahir Sapsal Muhtadin Muhtadin Mursalim Mursalim Mutawakkil Mutawakkil Muzana, Syarifah Nanang Sadikin Naslawati, Naslawati Nasruddin Nasruddin Nengsi, Sri Ngudiyono Ngudiyono Noor Saptanti Nugroho, Anggi Septia Nurdia, Nurdia Nurhanifa, Nurhanifa Nurjannah Nurjannah Nurlaili Nurlaili Nurrahmi, Sitti Nursusilowati, Indah Nurtania Sudarmi Nurul Hidayat Panduwinata, Fina Prajasa, Syakira Mala Pratiwi, Nita Adilla Putra, Akbar Adrian Putri, Nursinta Rahmawati, Cut RAMLIN AHMAD Rasyifah, Maisyah Nur Rayhannafi, Hilmi Rita Sari Rokhman, Rokhman RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Sabaniah, Syahrial Safera, Liza Salmawati Salmawati, Salmawati Sanjaya, Muhammad Fahyu Sapsal, Muhammad Tahir Sari, Adinda Kumala Setianingrum, Diah Ayu Silviana, Mery Sitti Nur Faridah Soderi, Ahmad Sofyan M. Saleh Solly Aryza Sriwinar, Sriwinar Suhardi Suhardi Suhartono Sukmawati, Darmawati Sulistyowati, Indah Dwi Sunarno Sunarno Sundari, Salsabila Sunreni, Sunreni Supratomo, Supratomo Suryana, Nina Suryani Suryani SUTOMO Syafriadi Syafriadi Syahmidarni Al Islamiyah Syahputri, Nazwa Ayu Syahrianursaifi, Syahrianursaifi Syamsuri, KGS M Nurs Syuhada, Rahmat Tamsil Tamsil Taufiq Taufiq Trisno, Eka Prasetya Dwi Udayana, I Made Darma Ukhtiyani, Indah Useng, Daniel Usrah Yulia Murti Vitri, Gusni Wanda Wanda Waty, Eri Wendi Boy Weny Dwi Ningtiyas Wicaksana, M. Arman Adhi Winar, Sri Winar, Sri Wiujianna, Atri Yetri Hasan Yocki Supriadi Yuhinis, Baiq Ilil Yulistia, Yulistia Yumeina, Diyah Yusrizal Yusrizal Zahrah, Zahrah Zainal, Zainal Abidin Zaiturrahmi, Zaiturrahmi Zardi, Muhammad Zayu, Wiwin Putri Zurkarnaini, Zurkarnaini