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Journal : JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING

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Application of Feature Selection and Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Rainfall Prediction in Jakarta Sulistyowati, Indah Dwi; Sunarno, Sunarno; Iqbal, Iqbal; Syamsuri, KGS M Nurs
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 9 No. 5 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v9i5.11000

Abstract

Accurate rainfall prediction plays a vital role in reducing disaster risks and supporting public preparedness, particularly in Jakarta where dense population and frequent floods cause serious economic and social impacts. In this study, weather data from the Kemayoran Meteorological Station covering 2004–2023 were analyzed to build rainfall prediction models using machine learning. Three classification algorithms were compared: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest, selected to represent linear, non-linear, and ensemble approaches. Feature selection was applied using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to identify the most relevant predictors. The models were evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation with metrics including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 Score, ROC AUC, and Cohen’s Kappa. The results indicate that Random Forest achieved the best overall performance with Accuracy of 0.7622, Precision around 0.70, Recall up to 0.63, F1 Score about 0.65, ROC AUC ranging from 0.8044 to 0.8171, and Cohen’s Kappa near 0.48. Logistic Regression also performed competitively with Accuracy of 0.7648, ROC AUC of 0.829, and Kappa of 0.49, while Decision Tree showed lower results with Accuracy of 0.6890 and ROC AUC of 0.6636. The RFE process successfully reduced 18 meteorological attributes to 5 influential features, mainly temperature and relative humidity, which were dominant in distinguishing rainfall events. These findings demonstrate that both Random Forest and Logistic Regression outperform Decision Tree, and Random Forest with RFE can be recommended as the most robust model for rainfall prediction in Jakarta.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abdul Waris Abdul Waris Afkar, Mufidul Agung M Agus Dwiyanto, Agus Agus Jatmiko Al-Qaida, Huzaima Alfarez Marchelian, Reyno Amrullah, Satrio Andi Paramita Guntur arifin arif Andi Karim Aryani, Intan Dwi Ashabul Kahpi Asrul Saputra Aziz Aziz Bintang Pradana Yosua, Panky Daniel Useng Darmawati Darwis Dedy Farhamsa Desembardi, Faried Desi Fitasari Diah Retnowati Dian Dian Diantoro, Karno Dicky Wahyudi Didit Suprihanto, Didit Djuniadi , Djuniadi Djuniadi Djuniadi Dwi Guntoro Dyah Prihartini Djenal Elsa Elsa Ery Wati Eti Hadiati Ewin Iskandar Fadli, Yossy Aulia Fahrizal Fahrizal Faisyah, Nur Fakhrizal Fakhrizal, Fakhrizal Fatimah, Jannatun Fauzah, Rauzatul Febrianti, Ni Luh Riska Feddy Setio Pribadi Hanif Hanif Haq, Habil Hasbullah Hasbullah Hazmal Herman, Hazmal Horas, Erwin Husnul Mubarak Imam Suelfikhar Ipung Permadi Irawan, Bayu Budi Irawan, Santi Jafarudin, Ahmad Januar Junaedi Muhidong Karnisih, Karnisih Kartika Pertama Sari Kasman Kasman Kausar, Kausar Khaeril Anwar Junaedi Khaeroni, Rany Kitab Amelia Kurnia, Muhammad Lasmedi Afuan Ledjap, Maria Aryanthi Liliandriani, Andi Lindawati Lindawati Maharani, Dewi Mahmud Achmad Mahmud Achmad, Mahmud Mahmudin, Lufsyi Marfiyana, Marfiyana Martha, Martha Maulana Putra Mauloeddin Afna, Mauloeddin Mazni, Deni Irda Melati, Reffi Mil, Gibson Mira, Prilly Virgina Mochammad Imron Awalludin Moerad, Siti Huwayda Mohamad Riva N. Muhammad Ihsan Andi Dagong Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Isya Muhammad Rizal Muhammad Syahrul Ulum Muhammad Tahir Sapsal Mursalim Mursalim Mutawakkil Mutawakkil Muzana, Syarifah Nanang Sadikin Naslawati, Naslawati Nengsi, Sri Ngudiyono Ngudiyono Noor Saptanti Nugroho, Anggi Septia Nurhanifa, Nurhanifa Nurjannah Nurjannah Nurlaili Nurlaili Nurrahmi, Sitti Nursusilowati, Indah Nurtania Sudarmi Nurul Hidayat Panduwinata, Fina Prajasa, Syakira Mala Pratiwi, Nita Adilla Putri, Nursinta RAMLIN AHMAD Rasyifah, Maisyah Nur Rayhannafi, Hilmi Rita Sari Rokhman, Rokhman RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Safera, Liza Salmawati Salmawati, Salmawati Sanjaya, Muhammad Fahyu Sari, Adinda Kumala Setianingrum, Diah Ayu Soderi, Ahmad Sofyan M. Saleh Solly Aryza Suhartono Sukmawati, Darmawati Sulistyowati, Indah Dwi Sunarno Sunarno Supratomo, Supratomo Suryana, Nina Suryani Suryani SUTOMO Syafriadi Syafriadi Syamsuri, KGS M Nurs Tamsil Tamsil Taufiq Taufiq Trisno, Eka Prasetya Dwi Udayana, I Made Darma Ukhtiyani, Indah Useng, Daniel Usrah Yulia Murti Vitri, Gusni Wanda Wanda Waty, Eri Wendi Boy Weny Dwi Ningtiyas Wicaksana, M. Arman Adhi Winar, Sri Winar, Sri Wiujianna, Atri Yetri Hasan Yocki Supriadi Yuhinis, Baiq Ilil Yumeina, Diyah Zainal, Zainal Abidin Zaiturrahmi, Zaiturrahmi Zayu, Wiwin Putri Zurkarnaini, Zurkarnaini