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All Journal Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika AdMathEdu : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Ilmu Matematika dan Matematika Terapan JURNAL E-DUMATH GRADIEN AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Edu Sains: Jurnal Pendidikan Sains dan Matematika Al-Jabar : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika NUMERICAL (Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika) Jurnal Manajemen Pendidikan Shautut Tarbiyah Union: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika QALAMUNA: Jurnal Pendidikan, Sosial, dan Agama JMPM: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika PRISMA Desimal: Jurnal Matematika al-Afkar, Journal For Islamic Studies BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Journal on Education MAJU : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika JKPM (Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Matematika) MAJAMATH: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Al-Khwarizmi: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Ath Thariq Jurnal Dakwah dan Komunikasi Transformasi : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications JPMI (Jurnal Pembelajaran Matematika Inovatif) PHI: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika An Naba Jurnal Pemikiran dan Penelitian Pendidikan Islam MANAGERE : Indonesian Journal of Educational Management Attractive : Innovative Education Journal Al-Mal:Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Islam Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Pedagogy : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika International Journal of Islamic Education, Research and Multiculturalism (IJIERM) El-Rusyd Journal of Advanced Islamic Educational Management Managere: Indonesian Journal of Educational Management International Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics and Social Sciences (IJAMESC) JEID at-Tarbiyah al-Mustamirrah: Jurnal Pendidikan Islam Community: Jurnal Hasil Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Assyfa Journal of Islamic Studies Jurnal Media Akademik (JMA) Ahlussunnah: Journal of Islamic Education J-STAF: Siddiq, Tabligh, Amanah, Fathonah Journal of Education and Teaching Learning Jurnal MediaTIK EDUCATIONAL: Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan dan Pengajaran Assyfa Journal of Multidisciplinary Education SAKALIMA: Pilar Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Pendidikan Women, Education, and Social Welfare Journal of Islamic Education PAEDAGOGIE El Midad: Jurnal Jurusan PGMI
Achi Rinaldi
Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
Religion Aerospace Engineering Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Forecasting the Consumer Price Index in Bandar Lampung Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model: An Applied Statistics Context for Mathematics Education Naya Dwi Septiani; Achi Rinaldi; Riyama Ambarwati
Jurnal MediaTIK Volume 9, Issue 3 September 2026
Publisher : Jurusan Teknik Informatika dan Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59562/mediatik.v9i3.14445

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator for monitoring changes in household consumption prices and supporting inflation assessment, making accurate short-term forecasting important for regional economic planning. This study aims to analyze the historical pattern of the CPI in Bandar Lampung, identify the most appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and forecast CPI values for March 2026 to February 2027. A quantitative time-series design was employed using 100 monthly CPI observations from November 2017 to February 2026 obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The analysis followed the Box-Jenkins procedure, including stationarity testing, first-order differencing, model identification using ACF and PACF, parameter estimation, residual diagnostics, model comparison, and forecasting. The results showed that the original CPI series was non-stationary but became stationary after first-order differencing. Among the candidate models, ARIMA(1,1,1) was selected because its parameters were statistically significant and its residuals satisfied the white-noise assumption, with a Ljung-Box p-value of 0.9999. The model produced RMSE = 3.75, MAE = 0.94, MAPE = 0.85%, and MAD = 0.94. Forecasts indicated a gradual increase in CPI from 108.6605 in March 2026 to 109.6443 in February 2027. Therefore, ARIMA(1,1,1) provides an interpretable short-term forecasting model for supporting regional price monitoring and demonstrating an applied use of time-series analysis in mathematics education.  
Co-Authors Aanisah Agusnani‎ Rizq Abi Fadila Achmad Zailani Aditia Fradito Agung Safitri Agus Pahrudin Ahmad Fauzan Ahmad Sodiq, Ahmad Ali Murtadho Ali Murtadho Ali Murtadho Ali Murtado Amia Kasmia Ana Risqa JL Andika Eko Prasetiyo Andika Eko Prasetiyo, Andika Eko Anggraini, Rekasepti Ansely, Ghina Arfani Manda Tama Asri, Elsa Widya Auni Luthfiah Nurfathina A’La Nirotul Fikri A’vi Amelia Baehaqi Bilqis, Ratu Ayu Budi Santoso Cantika, Fadiya Puteri Chairun Nisa Male Deden Makbuloh Delima Istiani Desi Vitona Destiani, Sinta Diah Irdiyana Rizqi Dian Anggraini Dian Widi Astuti Dian Widi Astuti Diana Yonika Sari Dinda Permata Sari Diyan Firmansyah Dona Dinda Pratiwi Dwi Budi Santoso Dyah Arum Puspanaja Elfrida Ratnawati Elly Kurniawati Evi Gusliana Fatimah, Okis Ferunika Ferunika Firmansyah, Mu'min Fitri Yanti Fitria Adelita Fredi Ganda Putra Ghina Ansely Gusti Ayu Farah Nabilla Hari Saputra Hasan, Masykur Hery Susanto Hery Susanto Hikma Apriani Ice Rosina Sari Icha Mufassiroh Asy Syauqi Iip Sugiharta Ikhtiar Cahya Ajir Ikram Mawar Sari Ilham Fatoni Ima Damayanti Indah Resti Ayuni Suri Inka Mayelda Putri Kenny Candra Pradana Kholis, Arief Wildan Khomsahrial Romli Kiki Ambar Sari KOMARUDIN Laila Puspita Laila Puspita, Laila Lusi Anggraini Lutfiyah, Lufi M. Izzad Khairi Yazdi Maharani Fitriana Maylia Khairunnisa Baher Melinda, Selva Merita Diana Mike Andrini Mu'min Firmansyah Muhamad Syazali Muhammad Akmansyah Muhammad Al Imron Muhammad Fajar Muhammad Ilham Jaya Kesuma Muhammad Rifkhi Maulana Mukhtar, Sajida Mutia Mutia Muzekki Mu’adz Haidar Zulkarnain Nabil Tito Prasetyo Nadila, Nadila Nanang Supriadi Naya Dwi Septiani Novalia Novalia Novalia Novalia Novia Dwi Rahmawati Novian Riskiana Dewi Novitasari Supardi Nur Hasanah Nurani Nurani Nurhasanah Leni Nurjanah Nurjanah Nurrasiah, Nurrasiah Oki Dermawan Okis Fatimah Okta Iwan Setiawan Pitri, Rizka Pranata, Meli Puput Nurmawati R. Suyanto Rahmawati, Yasinta Ramadhani Dewi Purwanti Ramadhani Dewi Purwanti, Ramadhani Dewi Rany Widyastuti Rany Widyastuti Ratu Ayu Bilqis Rekasepti Anggraini Reni Novilia Rini Setiawati Riska Fitriana Riyama Ambarwati Riyanto Adi Kusumah Riyanto Riyanto, Riyanto Adi Kusumah Rizka Pitri Rizki Wahyu Yunian Putra Roby Firdian Ruswanda Rosida Rakhmawati Safitri, Julia Dwi Sakti Aktarim Salih, Dana Taha Mohammed Samsul Hadi Sari, Dinda Permata Sekar Handayani Serli Yuniawati Sihotang, Donald Harris Sintia Julia Siska Andriani Siti Mardiah Siti Mardiah, Siti Siti Patimah Siti Ulfa Nabila Sri Choiriyati Sri Purwanti Naustion Suci M.Hum SH Hartati Suherman Suherman Suherman Suherman, Suherman Supardi, Novitasari Susianto, Yuni Syamsul Huda Syamsul Huda Syarifah Sri Rahayu Tama, Arfani Manda Tama, Arfani Manda Tarekah Hasanah Tatang Julianto Tri Nurhardina Trian Hermawan Ulfa Iqoh Wahyu Febriana Wahyu Kusumaningtyas Wahyu Kusumaningtyas Wan Jamaluddin Wan Jamaluddin Z Wan Jamaluddin Z Wan Jamaluddin Z Wawan Gunawan Widianti, Windi Yasinta Rahmawati Yuberti Yulia Monica Yulina, Rikka Yulistia Devi Yulistiana Yulistiana Yuni Susianto Yusuf Effendi