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Munawar Munawar
Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Sriwijaya University, Jl. Raya Palembang Prabumulih Km 32, Indralaya, Ogan Ilir, South Sumatera 30662
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Journal : Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia

 1 
Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022 Lumbantoruan, Alva Josia; Darmawan, Yahya; Munawar, Munawar; Nardi, Nardi; Arifianto, Fendy; Ferdiansyah, Ervan
Indonesian Physics Communication Vol 22, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/jkfi.22.1.15-22

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the ARIMA-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City for the year 2023. The data used are historical observation data of rainfall from 2013 to 2022 that have been tested for stationary and homogeneity, which proved not to require additional correction. The analysis results show that the ARIMA-Kalman model can capture the general pattern of rainfall well, and shows superiority in producing predictions that are closer to the actual data, with a mean absolute error (MAE) value of 54.11, which is lower than the MAE of the ARIMA model which reaches 55.66. Although the ARIMA model has a smaller root mean square error (RMSE) (66.67 compared to 69.75 for ARIMA-Kalman), the ARIMA-Kalman model shows better consistency, especially in capturing significant fluctuations, such as the peak rainfall that occurred in July 2023. Therefore, ARIMA-Kalman is proven to be more accurate and reliable for predicting rainfall in Medan city, making it a better choice to support water resources planning and management.
Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis of spatial patterns of dominant variability in the Indian Ocean Manik, Willy Bonanja; Darmawan, Yahya; Munawar, Munawar; Nardi, Nardi; Arifianto, Fendy; Ferdiansyah, Ervan
Indonesian Physics Communication Vol 22, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31258/jkfi.22.1.23-26

Abstract

The Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in the global climate system, particularly in influencing the seasons in Indonesia. Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indian Ocean affects rainfall patterns, extreme events, such as droughts and floods, in Indonesia. This study analyzes SST variability during the dry season (June – July – August, JJA) and rainy season (December – January – February, DJF) using satellite and reanalysis data from 1981 to 2023 with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The analysis shows that the dominant SST variability pattern during JJA is related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), which influences rainfall and temperature patterns in Indonesia. In DJF, SST variability is more associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon, affecting rainfall patterns and the potential for floods. This research enhances the understanding of climate dynamics in the Indian Ocean and its impact on Indonesia, and it can be used to predict extreme climate events associated with SST variability.
Co-Authors . Zulfan Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Ade Oktasari Adi Mulsandi Aditya Candra, Aditya Agung Hartoyo Aidil Amar Akbar, Habibullah Akmal, Ajmir Alfa Punky Irawan Amri, Sayful Anwar Fuadi, Anwar Arifianto, Fendy Arrozi, Muhammad Fachrudin Asfar, Dedy Ari Bahri, Saiful Bambang Giyanto Bambang Yudono Beruh, Hadirin BUDI TJAHJONO Cakranegara, Pandu Adi Dea Indriani Astuti Diding Sudira Efendi Donny Teguh Santosa Junias Dwi Hardestyariki, Dwi E. Elwina Edi Kartawijaya Elfita Elfita Eliyani Eliyani Emridwansyah, Emridwansyah Fachriza, Mohammad Fadilah, Eka Faizal Adi Bahtia, Jeri Ferdiansyah, Ervan Ferdiyansyah, Ervan Firmansyah, Gerry Fridayanti, Diah Fridayati, Diah Fuadi, Ahmad Melky Habibi, Naufal Ilham Hafnani Hafnani Hakim, Syahirman Handayani, Setyo Hapsoh, Siti Haryanto, Yosafat Donny Hidayat, Anistia Malinda Hizir Sofyan Humaira, Ziaul Ibnu Affan Ibrahim Ibrahim Ilzana, Teuku M. Indra Cahyadinata, Indra Irwansyah Irwansyah Iskandar Iskandar Ismawardani, Novia Dewi Iwan Sopwandin Juniawati Kamal Fachrurrozi Khaled, Teuku M. Kinanti, Putri Kresna Sakti, Rachmad Kusumapradja, Rokiah Lailatul Musyarofah, Lailatul Lestariningsih Lestariningsih Lubis, Ibrah Hasanah Lumbantoruan, Alva Josia M Tirtana Siregar, M Tirtana Made Denny Oktariyana Maghriza, Akhdan Raffi Satya Manik, Willy Bonanja Maqbul, Maqbul Marzuki Marzuki Marzuki, Sinambela Maulana, Rahmat Reza Mohd Andalas Mugiono, Arif Mugiyono, Arif Muhamad Safiih Lola Muhammad Amri Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Muhammad Muhammad Rifqi Muhammad Syahroni Muhammad Yani, Muhammad Muharni Muharni Muis Muis, Muis Mulya, Aditya Najmuddin MA, Najmuddin Nardi, Nardi Nisa', Syadzadhiya Qotrunada Zakiyayasin Nofierni, Nofierni Nopiana, Medi Novembrianto, Rizka Novia Rozalini Nurahillah, Nurahillah Nuraida Nuraida Nurhuda, Hilmi Mufthia Nurjalilah, Siti Nursayuti, Nursayuti Nuryadi Nuryadi Oktari, Rina Suryani Palahudin, Cecep Pilliang, Marzuki PINGKAN ADITIAWATI Prabowo, Mulyono Rahadi Puspandari, Diah A. Putri Tipa Anasi Qhinanti Lubis, Uchti Nuzul Rachmawati Rachmawati Rahma Zuhra Rahman Rahman Rahmi, Cut R. Rajuddin Rajuddin Ramli Ramli Rasipin Rasipin Rasudin, Rasudin Ratna Sari Ratri, Dwi Ajeng Reinamah, Clara Margilina Reza Fahmi Rhomadhoni, Muslikha Nourma Riadi, Yosua Rian Adi Pamungkas Rini Rachmawaty Rista Hernandi Virgianto Rizal Mutakin Rosmiati Rosmiati Ruby, Mahlil Saiful Mahdi Saleh, Ariyanti Saleh, Ariyanti Salni Samsul Bahri Saputra, Tino Sejati, Puteri Selian, Karno Silalahi, Nita Florina Siraj Siraj Sri Buwono . Sudarisman, Maman Sumarna Sumarna Supriadi Supriadi Surasman , Otong Suryani Suryani Syafruddin Syafruddin Syahrul Azmi Tari, Sandian Tristiana Rijanti Tuah, Dilah Ula, Akramul Usman, Tarmizi Veanti, Desak Putu Okta Wibowo, Shindyko Yahya Darmawan Yolanda Yolanda, Yolanda Yosafat, Oryza Yulhendri Yulhendri Yusra, Yusra Yusri Yusuf Yusriadi Yusriadi Zaidan, Zaidan Zainal Abidin Suarja Zalikha Zalikha Zubairin, Achmad Zuhri , Saifudin Zulfiandri Zulfiandri Zulkifli Zulkifli