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Nurhaida Nurhaida
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Syiah Kuala
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Journal : Journal of Social Research

 1 
Non-Linear Trend Analysis to Forecast The Number of New Two-Wheeled and Four-Wheeled Vehicles in Manokwari Regency Sinaga, Patresia; Ria Matulessy, Esther; Nurhaida, Nurhaida
Journal of Social Research Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v3i1.1861

Abstract

Forecasting is a systematic effort that employs scientific methods (knowledge and technology) to predict future events. Trends depict patterns of time series data over long or significant time intervals, indicating a tendency to either rise or fall. Trend lines are not always linear; they can have a curved (non-linear) shape. Non-linear trends refer to trend models that involve quadratic, cubic, and so on equations. Based on the non-linear trend-shaped data plot and research objectives, non-linear trend analysis is used to forecast the number of motor vehicles in Manokwari Regency. The best model for forecasting the number of new two-wheeled vehicles is the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 7.8%, categorized as excellent. The best model for forecasting the number of new four-wheeled vehicles is also the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 5.7%, categorized as excellent.
Forecasting Household Electricity Consumption by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method Wijayanti, Riana; Matulessy, Esther Ria; Nurhaida, Nurhaida
Journal of Social Research Vol. 4 No. 8 (2025): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v4i7.2669

Abstract

Electricity is a vital energy source for households, with consumption patterns influenced by seasonal trends and external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to forecast monthly household electricity consumption at ULP Manokwari Kota using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. The research utilizes secondary data from January 2013 to December 2022, which exhibits an upward trend and seasonal fluctuations. The Box-Jenkins methodology is employed, involving stationarity checks, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic testing, and forecasting. The dataset, spanning January 2013 to December 2022, demonstrates both an upward trend and a seasonal pattern. The forecasting process follows the Box-Jenkins approach: checking stationarity, identifying the model, estimating parameters, diagnosing the model, and performing forecasting. The optimal model for predicting electricity demand in the residential sector at ULP Manokwari Kota is SARIMA (1,1,0) ((0,0,1))^12, with parameters indicating significant autoregressive and seasonal effects. Using this model, monthly electricity demand from January to December 2023 is forecasted. The lowest demand is projected for February 2023 (7,274,147 kWh), while the highest is in December 2023 (7,481,067 kWh). This research provides valuable insights for PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Manokwari Kota in planning electricity supply and ensuring system reliability, particularly in addressing seasonal demand variations. The study contributes to the literature by applying SARIMA to household electricity forecasting in a region with isolated power systems, highlighting its utility for energy management and policy formulation.
Co-Authors Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Afifi, Muhammad Ridho ahmad yani Ainun Mardhiah, Ainun Ainun Mardiah Alam, Samsu ALDIANSYAH, TEUKU Amrina, Bella Septie andi, adi Anwari, M Sofwan Apriani, Riny Aprilyani, Lilis Dwi Sapta ARDIANSYAH ARDIANSYAH Aritonang, Devinna Riskiana Astuti, Tani ATANTA, JAINURSUMARMI SAFRULLAH Aulia, Astrina Azfa, Naila Arifah Azzahra, Mayochi Binawati Ginting Cut Aja Nuraskin Darwanti, Herlina Dewi, Shoufi Nisma Diana Diana Dina Setyawati Dirhamsyah, Muhammad Eka Safitri Elvi Susanti Lubis Farah Diba Febriani, Henny Femi Earnestly Firdaus Firdaus Fitri Kurnia Fitriani Fitriani Ginting, Bersiap Gitriadi, Heru Gusti Hardiansyah Gustina, Jessi Gustira, Ndari Habibi Habibi Hari Prayogo Hasan Ashari Oramahi Havija Sihotang Hutauruk, Puput Melati Indah Susanti Indrawasih, Indrawasih Isnaini, Nur Uli Khairunisa, Ana Laode Muhammad Harjoni Kilowasid Leli Suwita, SE, MM Lestari, Yayuk M. Dirhamsyah Maharani, Dhevia Marwanto Marwanto, Marwanto Matulessy, Esther Ria Muchlisinalahuddin Mufizarni, Mufizarni Muflihati, . Munadian, Munadian Murniana Murniana Muslim, Fluorina Oyza Mutia, Hera Mutiar, Mutiar N. Nazaruddin Nadia Nadia Najwa Najwa Nanang Masruchin Nasution, Putri Nabila NAZARUDDIN, SALSABILLA LATANSA Nengcy, Silvia Nova Rita, Nova Nugraha, Rezky Adrian Nurhasyifa, Najwa Nurhayati Nurhayati Nurhidayah, Kurnia Nursabila, Najwa Oktavia, Elmi Oktaviani, Maria Gerlina Peterson, Peterson Prita Larasati, Prita Larasati Puguh Setiawan Purwano, Sigit Putri, Puji Pradya R, Siti Raftul Fedri Rahayu, Eka Sri Rangkuti, Miftahul Nur Khairi Ranglaut, Sebastianus Lio Rago Rasyid, Syarifah AB Reca Reca Refiadinata, Jeki Refialdinata, Jeki Ria Matulessy, Esther Rikandi, Meta Riko, Eryesiswanto Sabyan, Muhammad Salihin, Salihin Santoso, Ida Riyanti Saputra, Muhammad Romi Saputri, Melda SARAWA, SARAWA Sarma Siahaan Sesa, Junianto Sinaga, Patresia Siregar, Alfin Siregar, Liesma Maywarni Sitti Saleha, Sitti Sofyan Zainal Sri Wahyuni Suhud, Khairi Suri, Mellan Suryani, Cici Susanti, Baiq Indah Susanti, Yana Yetria Syahfira A Syahna Syahna, Syahfira Ananda Teuku Salfiyadi Trisna Wati, Trisna Usmiar, Usmiar Wahdina, Wahdina Wahyuni, Dian Eka Mayasari Sri Widiyanti, Rina Widyanti, Rina Widyawati Widyawati Wijayanti, Riana Wirawan, Hadi Purnama Wirza Wirza, Wirza Wulandari, Reine Suci Wulandari Yuliaty, Ihdina Yundelfa, Mandria Zulfahmi Zulfahmi