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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Indonesian Journal of Geography IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems) ETIKONOMI EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis MATRIK: JURNAL MANAJEMEN, STRATEGI BISNIS, DAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN Media Statistika Sosiohumaniora Statistika Techno.Com: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Jurnal Berkala Ilmu Perpustakaan dan Informasi Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal Scientific Journal of Informatics Journal of Consumer Science Jurnal Ilmiah Arena Tekstil MIX : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen JOIN (Jurnal Online Informatika) Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Asia-Pacific Management and Business Application MAJALAH ILMIAH GLOBE Journal of Consumer Sciences Matra Pembaruan: Jurnal Inovasi Kebijakan Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) Informatika Pertanian CogITo Smart Journal Inovasi : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) Albacore : Jurnal Penelitian Perikanan Laut BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Warta Penelitian Perhubungan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Journal of Humanities and Social Studies International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) Aptisi Transactions on Technopreneurship (ATT) STI Policy and Management Journal Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik TELKA - Telekomunikasi, Elektronika, Komputasi dan Kontrol Jurnal Administrasi dan Manajemen Jurnal Matematika UNAND Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Ecces: Economics, Social, and Development Studies International Journal of Zakat (IJAZ) Inferensi InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics International Journal of Science, Engineering and Information Technology Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (DIJEFA) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi SRIWIJAYA JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT Jurnal Natural Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Xplore: Journal of Statistics STATISTIKA Jurnal Informatika: Jurnal Pengembangan IT PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia The Indonesian Journal of Computer Science Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Journal of International Accounting, Taxation and Information Systems Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Diophantine Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Khazanah Informatika : Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informatika Warta Penelitian Perhubungan The International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) Teknobuga : Jurnal Teknologi Busana dan Boga Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas
Bagus Sartono
Departmen Statistika Institut Pertanian Bogor Gedung IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti Wing 22 Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor (16680) Indonesia Phone: +62-811-118-508
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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

 1 
Evaluation of Spatial Approaches of Poverty in East Java Agusta, Madania Tetiani; Sartono, Bagus; Djuraidah, Anik
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7663

Abstract

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is the most frequently used for spatial modeling. GWR produces local model parameter estimates for each observed point. Unfortunately, GWR is known to be numerically unstable and can produce extreme coefficient estimates. Spatially Clustered Regression (SCR) and Spatially Constrained Clusterwise Regression (SCCR) are new approaches that combine cluster identification and regression estimation in one stage. This research evaluates these approaches to develop poverty alleviation in East Java with the largest number of poor people in rural areas as per March 2023 according to BPS. The response variable used is the percentage of poor families. While the explanatory variables used are the percentage of female heads of households, the percentage of non-electricity families, the average years of schooling, the percentage of home ownership, and the percentage of agricultural laborers. The results of GWR and K-Means produced three clusters in East Java, SCR produced four clusters in East Java, and SCCR produced three clusters in East Java. Based on the AIC value, the best approach is SCR with a value of 1,614. Based on its grouping, SCR is better in forming cluster with adjacent locations rather than GWR + K-Means and SCCR. The variables that significant to the percentage of poor families are the percentage of agricultural laborers, the percentage of home ownership, and the percentage of female heads of households.
Analysis of Household Risk Factors Associated with Food Anxiety Using Boosting-Based Machine Learning Methods Nisa Nur Aisyah; Rupmana Br Butar; Mega Ramatika Putri; Lisa Amelia; Bagus Sartono; Aulia Rizki Firdawanti
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/nz9epj83

Abstract

Food anxiety represents an early psychological indicator of household food insecurity and is influenced by economic vulnerability, household characteristics, and unstable access to food. West Java, as Indonesia’s most populous province, faces substantial socio-economic disparities that heighten the risk of food insecurity. Using SUSENAS 2024 data, this study aims to classify household food anxiety and evaluate the predictive performance of three boosting algorithms XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. The dataset exhibits a strong class imbalance, with only 19.1% of households categorized as food anxious, prompting the application of SMOTE and Winsorization during preprocessing. SMOTE considerably improved model performance, particularly in balanced accuracy. For XGBoost, balanced accuracy increased sharply from 0.5199 to 0.8738, while LightGBM experienced a similar improvement from 0.5261 to 0.8736. Winsorization produced only marginal additional effects. Across all scenarios, XGBoost demonstrated the highest overall performance, followed closely by LightGBM, whereas CatBoost showed limited ability to detect minority-class households. These findings underscore the effectiveness of boosting algorithms especially XGBoost enhanced by SMOTE in identifying food-anxious households and supporting data-driven, targeted food security interventions in West Java.
Evaluation of Tree-Based Models for Predicting Social Assistance Recipient Status Based on National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) 2024 Yani Prihantini Hiola; Zulhijrah; I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra; Syella Zignora Limba; Bagus Sartono; Aulia Rizki Firdawanti; Budi Susetyo; Gerry Alfa Dito
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/xyyv0f37

Abstract

Abstract. Poverty is a major socioeconomic challenge in Indonesia that affects the effectiveness of social protection programs. In response to this challenge, the government has created social assistance programs to improve the welfare of the people. However, the distribution of social assistance is often considered to be inaccurate, resulting in households that are deemed eligible for social assistance not being identified as recipients. One solution to improve the accuracy of distribution is the application of machine learning in the context of classification. Several tree-based models, such as LightGBM, Random Forest, and XGBoost, were selected because of their superior capabilities compared to classical models such as logistic regression, especially in handling complex data and fulfilling model assumptions. This study compares the performance of these three models in predicting social assistance recipient status using data from the 2024 West Java Provincial National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS). Model evaluation was conducted on several data pre-processing scenarios involving outlier handling, class balancing, and feature engineering. The results show that LightGBM consistently outperforms the other models on six metrics, namely Accuracy, Balanced Accuracy, F1-Score, ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, and Brier Score, out of a total of eight evaluation metrics used. SHAP analysis identifies Social Assistance History and Asset Score as the most influential features for model prediction. Friedman and Nemenyi nonparametric tests confirmed significant performance differences between LightGBM and other models based on the F1-Score, PR-AUC, and Brier Score metrics. These findings indicate that tree-based models, particularly LightGBM, can support the development of a more targeted and data-driven social assistance targeting system. Keywords: Social Assistance; Tree-Based; SHAP; SUSENAS; Hybrid Bayesian Optimization
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Abidin, Muhammad Ilham Abyan, Muhammad Fatih Achmad Fauzan Achsani, Noer Azham Adi Hadianto Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Akhilla, Kharismatul Zaenab Alfa Nugraha Pradana ALFIAN FUTUHUL HADI Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Ananda, Frisca Rizki Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Anisa, Rahma Annisa Permata Sari, Annisa Permata Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Anwar Fajar Rizki Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arie Wahyu Wijayanto Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Aryasa, Komang Budi Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Audina, Delia Fitri Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Ayu Sofia Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Citra, Reza Felix Dani Al Mahkya Darwis Darwis Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Desi Prabandari Kusuma Ningtyas Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dhanu Saptowulan Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Fitrianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Endriani, Desy Erfiani Erfiani Erira, Salsa Rifda Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI EVITA PURNANINGRUM Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Fauziah, Nadira Aribah Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Gustiara, Dela Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hari Wijayanto Hari Yanni, Meri Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi IJSA, Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Intan Arassah, Fradha Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Isnaini, Mardatunnisa Ita Wulandari Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni Kusuma Ningtyas, Desi Prabandari La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Linda Karlina Sari Lisa Amelia Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Matualage, Dariani Mega Ramatika Putri Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muhadi, Rizqi Annafi Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya MY, Hadyanti Utami Nimmi Zulbainarni Nisa Nur Aisyah Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah nurrusydah, zaima Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Parwati Sofan, Parwati Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purnaningrum, Evita Purwanto, Arie Puspita, Novi Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rakhmalia, Riza Indriani Rere Kautsar Resiloy, Unique Desyrre A. Rhendy K P Widiyanto Riantika, Ines Rina Oktaviani Rini, Dyah Setyo Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Rupmana Br Butar Sachnaz Desta Oktarina salsa bila Saptowulan Saputra, Galih Hedy Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiabudi, Nur Andi Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Shafa, Shalshabilla Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Siti Aisyah Sri Amaliya Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Suhaeri, ⁠Bulan Cahyani Sukarna Sukarna Sunan, Muh. Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Syella Zignora Limba Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan Ujang Sumarwan Ulfa, Yopi Ariesia Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Virgie, Meriza Immanuela Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Yani Prihantini Hiola Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Yuliani, Leny Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah Zulhijrah Zulmi, Muhammad Indra