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All Journal Humanika : Kajian Ilmiah Mata Kuliah Umum Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika COPING (Community of Publishing in Nursing) Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pengajaran Jurnal Edukasi dan Penelitian Informatika (JEPIN) Bhineka Tunggal Ika: Kajian Teori dan Praktik Pendidikan PKN Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Pancasila dan Kewarganegaraan Jurnal Manajemen Pelayanan Publik Jurnal Ilmiah Lingua Idea Journal of Civic Education M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Lensa : Jurnal Kependidikan Fisika Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP) Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan Islam PINISI Discretion Review Journal On Teacher Education (Jote) Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences JURPIKAT (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Afeksi: Jurnal Penelitian dan Evaluasi Pendidikan el hayah jurnal studi islam Pengabdian Kampus: Jurnal Informasi Kegiatan Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat COMSERVA: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Quality : Jurnal Kesehatan Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Gemakes: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bestari (JPMB) Jurnal Paris Langkis JURNAL SIPISSANGNGI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education TARBIYATUNA : Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan, Pemikiran dan Pengembangan Lembaga Pendidikan Islam Indonesian Journal of Applied and Industrial Sciences (ESA) Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Indonesian Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science and Technology (MARCOPOLO) Journal of Prosthetics Orthotics and Science Technology (JPOST) Jurnal Nakula: Pusat Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa Dan Ilmu Sosial International Journal of Research Bhinneka Multidisiplin Journal Asian Journal of Social and Humanities PESHUM EL-HAYAH Proceeding of The International Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities Innovation
Triyani Triyani
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Rainfall Forecasting Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method And Decomposition Method in Pangkalan Bun Grisella Estefania R; Agustini Tripena; Triyani, Triyani
PESHUM : Jurnal Pendidikan, Sosial dan Humaniora Vol. 4 No. 4: Juni 2025
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/peshum.v4i4.9431

Abstract

Flash floods and droughts that often occur in Pangkalan Bun, Central Kalimantan are clear evidence of the impact of climate change. Global climate change has caused an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, including significant fluctuations in rainfall. The purpose of this study is to create the best model for predicting rainfall using the SARIMA method and the Decomposition method in the case of data in Pangkalan Bun. The data used are rainfall data in Pangkalan Bun as many as 180 observations (January 2009 - December 2023). Rainfall data is divided into training data and testing data. Training data is used to determine the forecasting model using the SARIMA method and the Decomposition method. The results, the SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,0,1)12 model gives the lowest MAPE value compared to other decomposition models, namely a MAPE value of 26.05%. The MAPE value indicates that the SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,0,1)12 model is suitable for use in predicting future data. The forecast results show that the highest rainfall will occur in November 2024 at 263.97 mm and the lowest in August 2024 at 106.26 mm.
Co-Authors Abdul Gofur Abdul Gofur Adel, Adel Adjie, Septia Damayanti Agussana, Agussana Agustini Tripena Ahmad Saefulloh Alisya Masturoh Amaliyanah, Melly Ananda, Kartika Anarkis, Bunga Tirai Anatasia, Suci Andini, Leony Rhesmafiski Andreas Wahyu Gunawan P Angelika Putri Annisa Ratna Fadilla Purba Ari Wardayani, Ari Aseanty, Deasy Asvio, Nova Bahtiar Usman, Bahtiar Bayu Dwi Welasasih ButarButar, Tiara Cica Fikrotun Aeni Cionita, Tezara Daniel Happy Putra Desti Nuryani Sitompul Dewi Ekowati Dewi Rekha Natalia Situmorang Dewi, Priska Sari Dhiya Ulhaq DONY KURNIAWAN Dotrimensi, Dotrimensi Eli Karliani Evi Sofiati Fairuz, Ahmad Fe, Didi Febiola, Niken Fitri, Rahma Maulida Gayatri, Padma Vidya Grisella Estefania R Gummah, Syifaul Gunawan, Vincentius Abdi Guswanto, Bambang Hendriya Huda Musthofa Hutapea, Sintia Martogi Ikhsan, Ibnu Irham Taufiq, Irham Ismi Maksalmina Jajang Permana Juniati, Veni Justine Tanuwijaya Kartika Ananda Khoerunissa Khoerunissa Lion, Eddy Lovy Herayanti Lucy Warsindah marlini, Sili Maryam Mustika Mashuri Mashuri Masturoh, Alisya Melinda, Jessy Misnawati Misnawati Mochammad Novendri S Mohammad Febry Andintias Muh. Safwan Muhamad Faisal, Muhamad Muhamad, Faisal Muhammad Sadikin Mustika, Maryam Mutia Nur Estri, Mutia Nur Najmah Istikaanah Nazier, Suci Anatasia Niken Larasati Novitasari, Yussie Nur Hapipah Nurahmadhani, Ambar Sari Nurhayati Nurhayati Nurshiami, Siti Rahma Oktaviandra, Yosyea Oktriyansa, Resa Pakpahan, Arnolt Pasha, Herlina Prakoso, Lukman Yudho Pratiwi, Putri Fransiska Purnama Purbaningsih, Endah Sari Puspita, Erlin Putra, Leonardus Sandy Ade Putra, Raden Achmad Candra Putri, Cintya Yelena Putri, Faiq Fauziya Rahmawati, Rina Fitriana Renny Renny Ridwan, Muhammad Hasbullah Risdianto Hermawan Rizal, Ahmad Syamsul Rizki Annisa Rizqi Pranoto, Luthfi Rodhi Anshari Ruslinar, Meli Safitri, Siti Salma Salwa, Nadine Sb., Agustini Tripena Br. Silmia, Ana Sindrawati, Sindrawati Sitanggang, Romatua Siti Komalasari Siti Rahmah Nurshiami, Siti Rahmah Slamet Riyadi Soemantri, Asep Iwa Stefanus M S Sadana Supadma, Deby Eka Suprayitno Suprayitno Supriyadi, A. Adang Suwarno, Panji Tri Riana Lestari Tri Wijayanti Umi Narimawati Winanti, Marliana B. yuliani, vini Yuyuk Tardimanto Zahra, Raesha Syahnaz