p-Index From 2021 - 2026
11.151
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Media Statistika JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor BIOTIK: Jurnal Ilmiah Biologi Teknologi dan Kependidikan Jurnal Ilmiah Pangabdhi Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Jurnal Pengukuran Psikologi dan Pendidikan Indonesia (JP3I) Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika INTENSIF: Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Penerapan Teknologi Sistem Informasi Jurnal Matematika: MANTIK MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zeta - Math Journal J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) Mathvision : Jurnal Matematika Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Varian Publica: Jurnal Pemikiran Administrasi Negara Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Inferensi Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Didaktika: Jurnal Pemikiran Pendidikan JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Jurnal Jeumpa Biofaal Journal Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Indonesia (JPKMI) Islamiconomic: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Journal of Health and Nutrition Research Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya Journal of Scientific Research, Education, and Technology Journal Focus Action of Research Mathematic (Factor M) Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM) Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Eksponensial Jurnal Agroteknologi Merdeka Pasuruan Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

UNILEVER STOCK PRICES FORECASTING WITH ENSEMBLE AVERAGING APPROACH ARIMA-GARCH AND SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION Pusporani, Elly; Nitasari, Alfi Nur; Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia; Indrasta, Irma Ayu; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0137-0154

Abstract

Investment, mainly in stock prices, plays a significant role in the Indonesian economy. Accurate stock price forecasting can help investors make informed decisions. Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) exhibits high volatility in its closing stock prices, making it crucial to develop a reliable forecasting model. This study applies an ensemble averaging method that integrates the ARIMA-GARCH model and Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict UNVR's closing stock prices from January 6, 2019, to November 5, 2023. The results indicate that the data can be modeled using ARIMA (0,2,1). However, the squared residuals of the model show heteroscedasticity, necessitating variance modeling using the ARCH-GARCH approach. The best combination of mean and variance modeling is achieved with ARIMA (0,2,1) – GARCH (1,1), yielding a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.865%. Additionally, a nonparametric SVR model with parameters C = 4 and ε = 0 is applied, resulting in a MAPE of 2.94%. An ensemble averaging approach is implemented to optimize forecasting accuracy further, combining ARIMA-GARCH and SVR models. This ensemble approach improves predictive performance, achieving a final MAPE of 1.682%. These findings demonstrate that ensemble averaging effectively enhances stock price forecasting accuracy by leveraging linear and nonlinear modeling techniques.
Co-Authors Abdilah, Nurullah Asep Abdillah, Adrian Wahyu Adma Novita Sari Adnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin Adriansyah, Muhammad Haykal Afifa, Fitriana Nur Aflaha, Nabila Shafa Agnes Happy Julianto Agustiansyah, Lucky Dita Ahmad Saddam Hussein Ain, Dzuria Hilma Qurotu Aini Divayanti Arrofah Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Alfredi Yoani Aliffia, Netha Almira Sophie Syamsudin Alya Rahma Inneztiana Amalia, Nadinta Kasih Amalia, Rica Ana, Elly Andi Vania Ghalliyah Putrie Andri Tri Cahyono Andriani, Putu Eka Anggriawan, Muhammad Rizal Anggriawan, Muhammad Rizal Annisa Putri Nayumi Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Simamora Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Simamora Anwari, Anwari Apidianti, Sari Pratiwi Aprilia Prastyaningrum Ardi Kurniawan Ardi Kurniawan Ariyawan, Jovansha Arum Eka Ismiranda Putri Astuti, Aprillia Audilla, Marfa Aulia Ramadhanti Aulia, Niswa Faizah Ayu Safitri Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhani Bimo Okta Syahputra Bintang Alyaa Sabila Br Pangaribuan, Fani Agustina Budijono, Gabriella Agnes Chaerobby Fakhri Fauzaan Purwoko Chairunnisa, Nurul Rizky Christopher Andreas Citra Imama Cynthia Anggelyn Siburian Darmawan, Kezia Eunike Davina Shafa Vanisa Deshinta Arrova Dewi Devayanti Anugerahing Husada Dewanty, Sanda Insania Dewi, Berlianti Alisa Dewi, Deshinta Arrova Disty Ridha Hastuti Dita Amelia Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Doni Muhammad Fauzi Dwiyanto, Adelia Sukma Dyah Rohma Wati Efan Yudha Winata Eko Fajar Cahyono, David Kaluge Elly Ana Elly Ana Elly Ana Elly Ana Elly Anna Elly Pusporani Elok Zubaidah Eris Tri Kurniawati Erlina Anggraini Erlina Anggraini, Erlina Faisol Faisol Faisol, Faisol Faizun, Nurin Fajar Hidayanto, Fajar Faradilla Harianto Farah Fauziah Putri Farizi, Muhammad Fikry Al Fauzan, Muhammad Hafid Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Febriyani, Eka Riche Fernanda Desmak Pertiwi Firda Aulia Pratiwi Firman Rezaldi Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitria Eka Resti Wijayanti Fitrianingsih, Eka Rani Fitriyani, Mubadi’ul Fortunata, Regina Ghasani, Anisah Nabilah Girsang, Anne Vinella Grace Lucyana Koesnadi Haq, Affan Fayzul Hari Hariadi, Hari Hasanah, Sarmiatul Helda Urbhani Rosa Hermawan, Mohamad David Humaira, Edla Putri I Kadek Pasek Kusuma Adi Putra I Nyoman Budiantara Immanuel Alexander Sirait Indrasta, Irma Ayu Inneztiana, Alya Rahma Ira Yudistira Isna Nurul Izza Amalia Junaedi, Candra Karina Rubita Makhbubah Karina Tri Handayani Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Kresna Oktafianto Kurnia, Rizky Dwi Kusuma, Shalwa Oktavia Kusumasari Kartika Hima Darmayanti Kuzairi Leni Halimatusyadiah Lu'lu'a, Na'imatul Lu’lu’a, Na’imatul M. Nabil Saputra Mahadesyawardani, Arinda Makhbubah, Karina Rubita Mamdudah, Siti Marbun, Barnabas Anthony Philbert Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcelena Vicky Galena Maria Setya Dewanti Maritha, Vevi Marthabakti, CitraWani Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin Meliyawati Meliyawati Mochammad Baihaqi Mochammad Imron Awalludin Muhammad Andry Muhammad Faizal Fathurrohim Muhammad Faizhal Fathurrohim Muhammad Fikry Al Farizi Muhammad Luthfi Muhammad Rizaldy Baihaqi Muhammad Rosyid Ridho Az Zuhro Muhammad Walid Jumlat Mu’jijah Mu’jijah Na'imatul Lu'lu'a Nabila Angel Nafisha Nadia Dwi Marwanda Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar Nauvaldy, Muhammad Netha Aliffia Nitasari, Alfi Nur Noer Azizah Nur Chamidah Nurdin, Nabila Nurfitriyah, Luluk Nurmaulawati, Rina Nurrohmah, Zidni ‘Ilmatun Nurul M’rifatil Laila Nurvadilah, Eva Pambudi, Daffa Satrio Pamungkas, Barolym Tri Panjaitan5, Leni Sartika Permana, Made Riyo Ary Pratama, Bagas Shata Pratama, Fachriza Yosa Pratiwi, Firda Aulia Prayitno Prayitno Pressylia Aluisina Putri Widyangga Previan, Anggara Teguh Purba, Gaby Valenia Rosa Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Putri Fardha Asa Oktavia Hans Putri Masyita Qomaryah Putri, Asyifa Charmadya Putri, Farah Fauziah Putri, Ferdiana Friska Rahmana Putri, Larisa Mutiara Putrie, Andi Vania Ghalliyah Putu Eka Andriani Rachma Hikmaya Rahmada, Indrastanto Oktodian Rahmi Fadhillah, Fitri Raka Andriawan Ramadhan, Achmad Wahyu Ramadhani, Maulana Syah Putra Ramadhanty, Devira Thania Rani, Lina Nugraha Rasyid, Mochamad Recylia, Rien Reswara, Aqil Azmi Reynaldy Aries Ariyanto Reza Febrian Nugroho Rezaldi, Firman Rica Amalia Rohman, Naylur Romadhoni, M. Suma Firman Romadhoni, Moh Suma Firman Rosyida Widadina Ulya Rosyida Widadina Ulya Sadikin, Adnan Syawal Adilaha Safitri , Endang Safitri, Endang Sahidah, Sahidah Sakinah Priandi Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sanda Insania Dewanty Sari, Adma Novita Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Sa’idah, Andini Sediono, Sediono Setyaji, Diyan Yunanto Shafira Renianti, Fayza Sholiha, Anisatus Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Sifriyani, Sifriyani Sihite, Rivaldi Sihombing, Abednego Simamora, Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti Maghfrotul Ulyah Siti Romlah Sofia Andika Nur Fajrina Steven Soewignjo Sukardi Sugeng Rahmad Sulaiman, Faizah Jauhar Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Suryono, Alda Fuadiyah Swastika Oktavia Syahfitri, Nabila Syahzaqi, Idruz Tagawa, Dustin Nathanael Tanjung, Siti Aisiyah Tika Widiastuti Toha Saifudin Tony Yulianto Ucu Wandi Somantri Ukhrowi, Putri Usman Setiawan Vanisa, Davina Shafa Wibawa, Yoga Setya Widyangga, Pressylia Aluisina Putri Wijayanti Wijayanti Wulandari, Indana Zulfa Yenny, Ratna Fitry Yudistira, Ira Yuliana Kolo Yusuf, Bima Sakti Putra Yuwinani, Iin Zah, Alfian Iqbal Zahrani, Vista Vanadya Zalfaa Nur Amalia Zhafirab, Azizah Atsariyyah Zuleika, Talitha Zuleika, Talitha