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Miftahuddin Miftahuddin
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Journal : Transcendent Journal of Mathematics and Applications

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Analysis of Classical Spatial Regression Models for Human Development Index (HDI) in Sumatra Island Miftahuddin, Miftahuddin; Dilla, Putri Paras; Gunawan, Eddy
Transcendent Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol 4, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Syiah Kuala University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/tjoma.v4i1.49229

Abstract

This study applies classical spatial regression models (C-SRM) to analyze the determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) across 154 cities in Sumatra Island. Unlike standard regression, C-SRM accounts for spatial dependencewhere neighboring regions influence each others development outcomes. Three C-SRM specifications are evaluated: Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA). HDI, measuring education, income, and health, is inherently spatial due to interregional mobility, infrastructure spillovers, and policy diffusion. Using data from 2019, 2020, and their average (20192020), 13 potential predictors were tested, with variable selection yielding 12, 11, and 11 final variables, respectively. Results show HDI in Sumatra improved steadily from 2010 to 2020, with most cities classified as medium development. Among C-SRMs, the SEM model consistently outperformed SAR and SARMA based on AIC and log-likelihood values, indicating that unobserved spatially correlated factors significantly affect HDI variation. Key significant determinants include poverty rate, poverty gap index, population density, unemployment rate, labor force size, average years of schooling, access to school facilities, sanitation coverage, prevalence of health complaints, and nurse density. The findings confirm that classical spatial models provide a robust, interpretable framework for understanding regional development patterns without requiring complex modern specifications. This study supports the use of SEM as an effective tool for policymakers targeting equitable human development across spatially interconnected regions in Sumatra.
Co-Authors A Zaenurrosyid A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Ade Davy Wiranata Adi Mulsandi Adiputra, Adiputra Af'idah, Af'idah Afrilianti, Anggi Aman Aman Amik Nadziroh Andika Triansyah Anggraini, Tiara Citra Aqriansyah, M. Yani Arfaton, Arfaton ari, ari susetiyo Azhary, Dany Azizatul Inayah Azni Azni, Azni Azwana Azwana Baihaqi, Moh. Hamdan Binari, Susilawati Bunari, Bunari Chusnul Chotimah Danar Widiyanta Darmawati Darmawati Dheny Wiratmoko Dianis Izzatul Yuanita dianis, dianis izzatul yuanita Dilla, Putri Paras Dwi Yuliantri, Rhoma Dyah Kumalasari Eddy Gunawan, Eddy Ernawati, Atis Ika Fadhil, Rahmat Fadli, Muhammad Rijal Faizaturohmah, Siti Nida Fajar Indriyani Fauzi, Moh Ali Febriana_Hediyanti, Luthfia Fikri, Asyrul Fitriyah Fitriyah Fitriyah, Minantika Gunadi, Reza Gunartati, Gunartati Habibis Saleh Hafifatunnur, Hafifatunnur Hafis, Muhammad Hajairin Hakim, Nur Halim, Hendra Hariyadi, Hariyadi HARMANTO, ADI Herdin, Yulia Hi. Abdul Qayum, Abdul Rahman Hidayatus Sholihah Huda, Muhammad Chairul Ichsan Setiawan Ida Ayu Oka Suwati Sideman Ika Ernawati, Atis Iqdami, Muhammad Nazil Irfan Hania Irfan, Puguh Jalaluddin Jalaluddin Jannah, Syarifah Raihannatul Jauhar Fajrin, Jauhar Jayanti, Ummi Nur Afinni Dwi Juwita Juwita, Juwita Kartini, Vidya Putri Kusbianto, Kusbianto Kusumaningsih, Reni La Ode Ismail Ahmad, La Ode Ismail Lutfia, Iklima M. Fahli Zatrahadi M. Ihsan Ma'mun, Sukron Maghfuri, Safiul Maisaroh Maisaroh Makmun, Akhmad Haqiqi Maulana, Fahmi Maulana, Teuku Moch Mukhlison Mudjahirin Thohir Muhammad Afif Muhammad Awaluddin, Muhammad Muhammad Haris Riyaldi, Muhammad Haris Muhammad Nashihin Muhsin, Ilyya Murkhana, Murkhana Musli musli Nandisa, Adelin Nawawi Nawawi Ngudiyono Ni Nyoman Kencanawati Niqie, Mohammad Syah Rizal Nirra Fatmah nirra, nirra fatmah novindra . Nunik Pratiwi Nurjanah, Anisa Siti Oktari, Rina Suryani Puji Wulandari Kuncorowati Putri, Retno Wahyuni Rafsanjani, Adnan Rahayu, Leni Sri Rahmad Rahmad Ramadhan, Afinda Ramadhan, M. Jasuli Ramlah Ramlah Ratih Setyaningrum Rivan, M. Rizkya Alfahrezy, Rafly Rosalina Rosalina S Puyu, Darsul Sa'adi, Sa'adi Saputra, Aldi Saputro, Pradata Ardi Sinduningrum, Estu Sitompul, Ariman Sofia, Sofia - Soriente, Antonia Sri Susanti Suhaimi Suhaimi Sumirah Sumirah Suratmin, Hariangga Aqil Wiryandika Suroyo Suroyo Syafiq, Amirul Syarif Arkiang, Bachder Taufiqur Rohman Ulfazah, Yernati Wahdaniyah, Nia Wahyudi Wahyudi Wanda Ndapa, Damianus Widodo, Muhammad Adnan Wijaya, Roma Wulandari Wulandari Yeni Rahayu Yuliantri, Rhoma Dwi Yuliantri, Rhoma Dwi Aria Yurnalis Yurnalis Yuspiah, Eka Fitriani Yusriyadi Yusriyadi Zakaria, Nurhijrah Binti Zakariah, Asril Amirul Zuhry, Salman