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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Indonesian Journal of Geography ETIKONOMI EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis MATRIK: JURNAL MANAJEMEN, STRATEGI BISNIS, DAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN Media Statistika Sosiohumaniora Statistika Techno.Com: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Jurnal Berkala Ilmu Perpustakaan dan Informasi Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal Scientific Journal of Informatics Journal of Consumer Science Jurnal Ilmiah Arena Tekstil MIX : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen JOIN (Jurnal Online Informatika) Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Asia-Pacific Management and Business Application MAJALAH ILMIAH GLOBE Journal of Consumer Sciences Matra Pembaruan: Jurnal Inovasi Kebijakan Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) Informatika Pertanian CogITo Smart Journal Inovasi : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) Albacore : Jurnal Penelitian Perikanan Laut BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Warta Penelitian Perhubungan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Journal of Humanities and Social Studies International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) Aptisi Transactions on Technopreneurship (ATT) STI Policy and Management Journal Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik TELKA - Telekomunikasi, Elektronika, Komputasi dan Kontrol Jurnal Matematika UNAND Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Ecces: Economics, Social, and Development Studies International Journal of Zakat (IJAZ) Inferensi InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics International Journal of Science, Engineering and Information Technology Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi SRIWIJAYA JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT Jurnal Natural Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Xplore: Journal of Statistics STATISTIKA Jurnal Informatika: Jurnal Pengembangan IT PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia The Indonesian Journal of Computer Science Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Diophantine Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Khazanah Informatika : Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informatika Warta Penelitian Perhubungan The International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) Teknobuga : Jurnal Teknologi Busana dan Boga Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas
Bagus Sartono
Departmen Statistika Institut Pertanian Bogor Gedung IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti Wing 22 Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor (16680) Indonesia Phone: +62-811-118-508
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Journal : Media Statistika

 1 
A STUDY OF GENERALIZED LINEAR MIXED MODEL FOR COUNT DATA USING HIERARCHICAL BAYES METHOD Sunandi, Etis; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 14, No 2 (2021): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.14.2.194-205

Abstract

Poisson Log-Normal Model is one of the hierarchical mixed models that can be used for count data. Several estimation methods can be used to estimate the model parameters. The first objective of this study was to examine the performance of the parameter estimator and model built using the Hierarchical Bayes method via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simulation. The second objective was applied the Poisson Log-Normal model to the West Java illiteracy Cases data which is sourced from the Susenas data on March 2019. In 2019, the incidence of illiteracy is a very rare occurrence in West Java Province. So that, it is suitable as an application case in this study. The simulation results showed that the Hierarchical Bayes parameter estimator through MCMC has the smallest Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) value and the absolute bias is relatively mostly similar when compared to the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Penalized Quasi-Likelihood (PQL) methods. Meanwhile, the empirical results showed that the fixed variable is the number of respondents who have a maximum education of elementary school have the greatest risk of illiteracy. Also, the diversity of census blocks significantly affects illiteracy cases in West Java 2019.
EXTRA TREES METHOD FOR STOCK PRICE FORECASTING WITH ROLLING ORIGIN ACCURACY EVALUATION Dani Al Mahkya; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Bagus Sartono
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.36-47

Abstract

Stock is an investment instrument that has risk in its management. One effort to minimize this risk is to model and make further forecasts of stock price movements. Time series data forecasting with autoregressive models is often found in several cases with the most popular approach being the ARIMA model. The tree-based method is one of the algorithms that can be used to forecast both in classification and regression. One ensemble approach to tree-based methods is Extra Trees. This study aims to forecast using the Extra Trees algorithm by evaluating forecasting accuracy with Rolling Forecast Origin on BRMS stock price data. Based on the results obtained, it is known that Extra Trees produces a fairly good accuracy for forecasting up to 6 days after training data with a MAPE of less than 0.1%.
STACKING ENSEMBLE APPROACH IN STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING USING CMIP6-DCPP FOR RAINFALL ESTIMATION IN RIAU Mahkya, Dani Al; Djuraidah, Anik; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 17, No 1 (2024): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.17.1.1-12

Abstract

Rainfall modeling and prediction is one of the important things to do. Rainfall has an important relationship and role with various aspects of the environment. One phenomenon that can be associated with rainfall is forest and land fires. Riau is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has a high potential for forest and land fires. This is because Riau has a large area of peatland. One approach that can be used to estimate rainfall is statistical downscaling. The concept of this approach is to form a functional relationship between global and local data. This research uses CMIP6-DCPP output data that will be used to estimate rainfall at 10 observation stations in Riau. The proposed model in this research is Stacking Ensemble with PC Regression and LASSO Regression in the base model and Multiple Linear Regression in the meta model. This research aims to determine the best CMIP6-DCPP model for estimating rainfall in Riau and increasing the accuracy of rainfall estimates using the Stacking Ensemble approach.
COMPARISON OF RANDOM FOREST AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE CLASSIFICATION METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE ACCURACY LEVEL OF MADRASAH DATA Syarip, Dodi Irawan; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 18, No 1 (2025): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.18.1.37-48

Abstract

This study aims to identify the most effective classification method for predicting the accuracy level of madrasah data with class imbalance. Two machine learning approaches were employed: Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Based on the AUC values, it was concluded that the RF model had a slightly better performance in predicting the accuracy level of the madrasah data, with an average AUC of 62.82, compared to the SVM model, which had an average AUC of 62.33. Among all models, the highest and consistent performance was achieved by the RF model using ROSE techniques. The results of measuring variable importance showed that the predictor variables with the greatest influence in predicting the accuracy level of the madrasah data are the number of students and the student-to-teacher and staff ratio. This finding suggests that school principals and madrasah administrative staff should prioritize ensuring the completeness of student, teacher, and staff data to improve the overall reliability of madrasah data.
COMPARISON OF LOGISTIC MODEL TREE AND RANDOM FOREST ON CLASSIFICATION FOR POVERTY IN INDONESIA Sukarna, Sukarna; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.112-123

Abstract

Classification methods are commonly employed to ensure homogeneous data within each group, facilitating the prediction of specific categories. The most frequently used classification models are Logistic Model Tree (LMT) and Random Forest (RF). This study aims to assess the accuracy rate in predicting the poverty status of regencies or towns across Indonesia, utilizing eight independent variables. The entire dataset was obtained from the official Central Bureau of Statistics website. The study investigates the accuracy of various iterations and combinations of training data. The results indicate that RF outperforms LMT in terms of accuracy, achieving a 100% improvement in iterations k=10 and k=500 and a 75% improvement in iteration k=100. Consequently, the RF proves to be more effective than the LMT for analyzing Indonesian poverty data, especially when incorporating all eight independent variables.
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Abyan, Muhammad Fatih Achmad Fauzan Achsani, Noer Azham Adi Hadianto Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Akhilla, Kharismatul Zaenab Alfa Nugraha Pradana ALFIAN FUTUHUL HADI Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraeni, Kartika Novira Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisa Permata Sari, Annisa Permata Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Anwar Fajar Rizki Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Aryasa, Komang Budi Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Audina, Delia Fitri Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Ayu Sofia Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Citra, Reza Felix Dani Al Mahkya Darwis Darwis Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Desi Prabandari Kusuma Ningtyas Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dhanu Saptowulan Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Fitrianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Erfiani Erfiani Erira, Salsa Rifda Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI EVITA PURNANINGRUM Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fany Apriliani Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hardiana Widyastuti Hari Wijayanto Hari Yanni, Meri Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Intan Arassah, Fradha Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Ita Wulandari Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Linda Karlina Sari Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Matualage, Dariani Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya Musthafa, Hafiz Syaikhul MY, Hadyanti Utami Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Parwati Sofan, Parwati Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purnaningrum, Evita Purwanto, Arie Puspita, Novi Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rere Kautsar Rhendy K P Widiyanto Riantika, Ines Rina Oktaviani Rini, Dyah Setyo Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Sachnaz Desta Oktarina salsa bila Saptowulan Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiabudi, Nur Andi Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Sri Amaliya Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Suhaeri, ⁠Bulan Cahyani Sukarna Sukarna Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan Ujang Sumarwan Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Virgie, Meriza Immanuela Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Yuliani, Leny Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah