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Performance Comparison of Random Forest, Bagging, and CART Methods in Classifying Recipients of the Family Program in North Aceh Hari Yanni, Meri; Anwar Notodiputro, Khairil; Sartono, Bagus
Khazanah Informatika : Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Informatika Vol. 11 No. 1 (2025): April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/khif.v11i1.5098

Abstract

Machine learning is a method in data mining, it is used to study large data patterns through classification methods including Random Forest, Bagging, and CART. The Random Forest method develops the Bagging technique and Decision Tree components (CART) in decision-making. The difference between RF and Bagging is the selection of random features in forming a decision tree. It is only found in RF. Bagging can improve performance, model stability, and reduce variance by forming many different models. The research aims to see the performance of the Random Forest, Bagging, and CART methods in classifying family recipient programs in North Aceh. The results show that the performance of the RF, Bagging, and CART classification methods using the SMOTE technique for handling unbalanced classes is better than before handling unbalanced data. The classification method is evaluated through each model's accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1 score, and AUC values. The results show good performance with accuracy values of 90% Smote-RF and 86% Smote Bagging. The best performance was seen in the Smote-RF model which was obtained by tuning the Grid Search CV model parameters with k = 5 and repeat = 1 for a data set proportion of 90:10. This shows that the model can correctly predict all observations with an accuracy percentage of 90% with an average AUC value of 93.52%. On the other hand, the CART method has a very low accuracy value, so the model is less able to accurately predict all observations. Measurement of the level of importance of predictor variables that have the greatest influence in predicting recipient households is the floor area of the house, the number of household members aged 10 years and over, and the type of work of the head of the household.
SMOTE and Weighted Random Forest for Classification of Areas Based on Health Problems in Java Setiawan, Erwan; Sartono, Bagus; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v9i4.9933

Abstract

Random Forest (RF) is a popular Machine Learning (ML) approach extensively employed for addressing classification issues. Nevertheless, the RF method for classification problems demonstrates suboptimal performance in cases of data imbalance. There are several approaches to enhance RF performance when coping with data imbalance issues, such as using weighting and oversampling. This research explores the intervention of RF in addressing data imbalances, focusing on case studies of health problem classification in Java This study aims to develop models to analyze the health status of regions using RF, WRF, SMOTE-RF, and SMOTE-WRF methods. The objective is to compare the performance of these models and identify the best model for classifying DBK and Non-DBK categories in Java. The research results show that SMOTE-WRF is the most effective model in classifying DBK, achieving an accuracy level of 93.62%, sensitivity of 85.71%, precision of 75%, F-score of 80%, and AUC of 93.57%. The three key variables in the SMOTE-WRF model entail access to adequate sanitation, egg and milk consumption, and the number of doctors
COMPARISON OF SARIMA, SVR, AND GA-SVR METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS IN BENGKULU CITY Puspita, Novi; Afendi, Farit Mochamad; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (624.009 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss1pp353-360

Abstract

The number of rainy days is a calculation of the rainy days that occur in one month. In recent years, there has been a decrease in rainy days in some parts of Indonesia. One of the areas at risk of quite a high decreasing number of rainy days is the Bengkulu City area. The decrease in the number of rainy days is one of the impacts caused by climate change. The community will feel the impact of climate change-related to the season, especially those working in the agricultural sector. In compiling the planting calendar, it is necessary to consider the seasons to estimate water availability. This study aimed to forecast the data on the number of rainy days in Bengkulu City in the period January 2000 to December 2020 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Genetic Algorithm Support Vector Regression (GA-SVR) methods. The criteria for selecting the best model used was Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The MAD value in the SARIMA method was 4,16, 5,07 in the SVR model, and 3,67 in the GA-SVR model. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the GA-SVR model is the best model for forecasting the number of rainy days in Bengkulu City.
RESTRICTED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR MULTIVARIATE LINEAR MIXED MODEL IN ANALYZING PISA DATA FOR INDONESIAN STUDENTS Santi, Vera Maya; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Indahwati, Indahwati; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 2 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (528.449 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp607-614

Abstract

The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), becomes one of the references or indicators used to assess the development of students' knowledge and skills in each member country of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The results of the PISA survey in 2018 placed Indonesia in the bottom 10, indicating that the implementation of the national education system has not been successful. This underlies the need for a more in-depth study of the factors that influence PISA data scores not only statistically qualitatively but also quantitatively which is still very rarely done. The data structure of the PISA survey results is complex, which involves multicollinearity, multivariate response variables, and random effects. Thus, it requires an appropriate statistical analysis method such as the multivariate mixed linear regression (MLMM) model. In this study, secondary data from the results of the 2018 PISA survey with Indonesian students as the smallest unit of observation were used as sample. School is used as an intercept random effect which is assumed to be normally distributed. Multicollinearity is overcome by selecting independent variables based on AIC and BIC values. Estimation of variance and random effect parameters was performed using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method. Based on the estimator of the variance of random effects for the response variables of mathematics, science, and reading literacy, it was obtained 1548.12, 1359.39, and 1082.48, respectively, which explains the significant effect of each school as a random effect on the three response variables.
FUNCTION GROUP SELECTION OF SEMBUNG LEAVES (BLUMEA BALSAMIFERA) SIGNIFICANT TO ANTIOXIDANTS USING OVERLAPPING GROUP LASSO kusnaeni, kusnaeni; Soleh, Agus M; Afendi, Farit M; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 2 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (476.663 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp721-728

Abstract

Functional groups of sembung leaf metabolites can be detected using FTIR spectrometry by looking at the spectrum's shape from specific peaks that indicate the type of functional group of a compound. There were 35 observations and 1866 explanatory variables (wavelength) in this study. The number of explanatory variables more than the number of observations is high-dimensional data. One method that can be used to analyze high-dimensional data is penalized regression. The overlapping group lasso method is a development of the group-based penalized regression method that can solve the problem of selecting variable groups and members of overlapping groups of variables. The results of selecting the variable groups using the overlapping group lasso method found that the functional groups that were significant for the antioxidants of sembung leaves were C=C Unstructured, CN amide, Polyphenol, Sio2.
ASSOCIATION RULES IN RANDOM FOREST FOR THE MOST INTERPRETABLE MODEL Ilma, Hafizah; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (450.868 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0185-0196

Abstract

Random forest is one of the most popular ensemble methods and has many advantages. However, random forest is a "black-box" model, so the model is difficult to interpret. This study discusses the interpretation of random forest with association rules technique using rules extracted from each decision tree in the random forest model. This analysis involves simulation and empirical data, to determine the factors that affect the poverty status of households in Tasikmalaya. The empirical data was sourced from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) data for West Java Province in 2019. The results obtained are based on simulation data, the association rules technique can extract the set of rules that characterize the target variable. The application of interpretable random forest to empirical data shows that the rules that most distinguish the poverty status of households in Tasikmalaya are house wall materials and the main source of drinking water, house wall materials and cooking fuel, as well as house wall materials and motorcycle ownership.
COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SURVIVAL SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE AND RANDOM SURVIVAL FOREST IN SURVIVAL DATA Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri; Fitrianto, Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1495-1502

Abstract

Survival analysis is a statistical procedure in analyzing data with the response variable is time until an event occurs (time-to-event). In the last few years, many classification approaches have been developed in machine learning, but only a few considered the presence of time-to-event variable. Random Survival Forest and Survival Support Vector Machine are machine learning approach which is a nonparametric classification method when dealing with large data and a response variable of survival time. Random Survival Forest is tree based method that using boostrapping algorithm, and Survival Support Vector Machine using hybrid approaches between regression and ranking constrain. The data used in this study is generated data in the form of right-censored survival data. This study uses the RandomForestSRC and SurvivalSVM packages on R software. This study aimed to compare the performance of the Survival Support Vector Machine and Random Survival Forest methods using simulation studies. Simulation results on right-censored survival data using binary predictor variables scenario indicate that the Survival Support Vector Machine (SSVM) method with Radial Basic Function Kernel (RBF Kernel) has the best model performance on data with small volumes, whereas when the data volume becomes larger, the method that has the best performance is Survival Support Vector Machine using Additive Kernel. Meanwhile, Random Survival Forest is a method that has the best performance for all conditions in mixed predictor variables scenario. Method, proportion of censored data and size of data are factors that affect the model performance.
MODELING CLUSTERWISE LINEAR REGRESSION ON POVERTY RATE IN INDONESIA Meylisah, Eni; Rini, Dyah Setyo; Fransiska, Herlin; Agwil, Winalia; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1653-1662

Abstract

When a person's income is so low that it cannot cover even the most basic living expenses, they are said to be poor. Data on poverty levels and hypothesized causes are used in this study. If the data pattern forms clusters, one of the regression analyses that can be used is Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR). Therefore, this study aimed to determine the poverty rate modeling in Indonesia with the CLR method. The results showed that the best model is with 3 clusters, that for cluster 1, the factors that significantly affect the percentage of poverty are the percentage of electricity users , the number of small and micro industries and the number of tourist villages n cluster 2, the amount of village tours . In cluster 3, the percentage of users of electricity and the percentage of villages that have mining and quarrying .
IMPROVING ACCURACY OF PREDICTION INTERVALS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME USING QUANTILE REGRESSION FOREST AND SELECTION OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES Asrirawan, Asrirawan; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp1915-1926

Abstract

Quantile regression forest (QRF) is a non-parametric method for estimating the distribution function of response by using the random forest algorithm and constructing conditional quantile prediction intervals. However, if the explanatory factors (covariates) are highly correlated, the quantile regression forest's performance will decrease, resulting in low accuracy of prediction intervals for the outcome variable. The selection of explanatory variables in quantile regression forest is investigated and addressed in this paper, using several selection scenarios that consist of the full model, forward selection, LASSO, ridge regression, and random forest to improve the accuracy of household income data prediction. This data was obtained from National Labour Force Survey in 2021. The results indicate that the random forest method outperforms other methods for explanatory selection utilizing RMSE metrics. With regard to the criteria of average coverage value just above the 95% target and statistical test results, the RF-QRF and Forward-QRF methods outperform the QRF, LASSO-QRF, and Ridge-QRF methods for constructing prediction intervals.
GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED MACHINE LEARNING MODEL FOR ADDRESSING SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN JAVA ISLAND Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis; Sartono, Bagus; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2577-2588

Abstract

Random Forest (RF) machine learning models have emerged as a prominent algorithm, addressing problems arising from the sole use of decision trees, such as overfitting and instability. However, conventional RF has global coverage that may need to capture spatial variations better. Based on the analysis of the level of public health development, the relationship between the level of health development and risk factors can vary spatially. We use a modified RF algorithm called Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GW-RF) to address this challenge. GW-RF, as a tree-based non-parametric machine learning model, can help explore and visualize relationships between the Public Health Development Index (PHDI) as response variables and factors that are indicators at the district level. GW-RF output is compared with global output, which is RF in 2018 using the percentage of the population with access to clean/decent water (X1), consumption of eggs and milk per capita per week (X2), number of healthcare facilities per 1000 people (X3), number of doctors per 1000 people (X4), pure participation rate ratio female/male (X5), percentage of households that have hand washing facilities with soap and water (X6) as independent variables. Our results show that the non-parametric GW-RF model shows high potential for explaining spatial heterogeneity and predicting PHDI versus a global model when including six major risk factors. However, some of these predictions mean little. Findings of spatial heterogeneity using GW-RF show the need to consider local factors in approaches to increasing PHDI values. Spatial analysis of PHDI provides valuable information for determining geographic targets for areas whose PHDI values need to be improved.
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Achmad Fauzan Achsani, Noer Azham Adi Hadianto Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akhilla, Kharismatul Zaenab Alfa Nugraha Pradana ALFIAN FUTUHUL HADI Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraeni, Kartika Novira Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisa Permata Sari, Annisa Permata Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Anwar Fajar Rizki Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Citra, Reza Felix Dani Al Mahkya Darwis Darwis Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Fitrianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Erfiani Erfiani Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI EVITA PURNANINGRUM Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fany Apriliani Faqih Udin dan Jono M. Munandar Meivita Amelia Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Gustara, Muhammad Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hardiana Widyastuti Hari Wijayanto Hari Yanni, Meri Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Intan Arassah, Fradha Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Ita Wulandari Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Linda Karlina Sari Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Matualage, Dariani Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya Musthafa, Hafiz Syaikhul MY, Hadyanti Utami Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Parwati Sofan, Parwati Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purnaningrum, Evita Purwanto, Arie Puspanegara, Ladia Puspita, Novi Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rere Kautsar Rhendy K P Widiyanto Riantika, Ines Rina Oktaviani Rini, Dyah Setyo Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Sachnaz Desta Oktarina salsa bila Saptowulan Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Sofia, Ayu Sri Amaliya Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Sukarna Sukarna Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan Ujang Sumarwan Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Yuliani, Leny Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah