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Bagus Sartono
Departmen Statistika Institut Pertanian Bogor Gedung IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti Wing 22 Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor (16680) Indonesia Phone: +62-811-118-508
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MODELING CLUSTERWISE LINEAR REGRESSION ON POVERTY RATE IN INDONESIA Meylisah, Eni; Rini, Dyah Setyo; Fransiska, Herlin; Agwil, Winalia; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1653-1662

Abstract

When a person's income is so low that it cannot cover even the most basic living expenses, they are said to be poor. Data on poverty levels and hypothesized causes are used in this study. If the data pattern forms clusters, one of the regression analyses that can be used is Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR). Therefore, this study aimed to determine the poverty rate modeling in Indonesia with the CLR method. The results showed that the best model is with 3 clusters, that for cluster 1, the factors that significantly affect the percentage of poverty are the percentage of electricity users , the number of small and micro industries and the number of tourist villages n cluster 2, the amount of village tours . In cluster 3, the percentage of users of electricity and the percentage of villages that have mining and quarrying .
IMPROVING ACCURACY OF PREDICTION INTERVALS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME USING QUANTILE REGRESSION FOREST AND SELECTION OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES Asrirawan, Asrirawan; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp1915-1926

Abstract

Quantile regression forest (QRF) is a non-parametric method for estimating the distribution function of response by using the random forest algorithm and constructing conditional quantile prediction intervals. However, if the explanatory factors (covariates) are highly correlated, the quantile regression forest's performance will decrease, resulting in low accuracy of prediction intervals for the outcome variable. The selection of explanatory variables in quantile regression forest is investigated and addressed in this paper, using several selection scenarios that consist of the full model, forward selection, LASSO, ridge regression, and random forest to improve the accuracy of household income data prediction. This data was obtained from National Labour Force Survey in 2021. The results indicate that the random forest method outperforms other methods for explanatory selection utilizing RMSE metrics. With regard to the criteria of average coverage value just above the 95% target and statistical test results, the RF-QRF and Forward-QRF methods outperform the QRF, LASSO-QRF, and Ridge-QRF methods for constructing prediction intervals.
GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED MACHINE LEARNING MODEL FOR ADDRESSING SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN JAVA ISLAND Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis; Sartono, Bagus; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2577-2588

Abstract

Random Forest (RF) machine learning models have emerged as a prominent algorithm, addressing problems arising from the sole use of decision trees, such as overfitting and instability. However, conventional RF has global coverage that may need to capture spatial variations better. Based on the analysis of the level of public health development, the relationship between the level of health development and risk factors can vary spatially. We use a modified RF algorithm called Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GW-RF) to address this challenge. GW-RF, as a tree-based non-parametric machine learning model, can help explore and visualize relationships between the Public Health Development Index (PHDI) as response variables and factors that are indicators at the district level. GW-RF output is compared with global output, which is RF in 2018 using the percentage of the population with access to clean/decent water (X1), consumption of eggs and milk per capita per week (X2), number of healthcare facilities per 1000 people (X3), number of doctors per 1000 people (X4), pure participation rate ratio female/male (X5), percentage of households that have hand washing facilities with soap and water (X6) as independent variables. Our results show that the non-parametric GW-RF model shows high potential for explaining spatial heterogeneity and predicting PHDI versus a global model when including six major risk factors. However, some of these predictions mean little. Findings of spatial heterogeneity using GW-RF show the need to consider local factors in approaches to increasing PHDI values. Spatial analysis of PHDI provides valuable information for determining geographic targets for areas whose PHDI values need to be improved.
FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN PADDY HARVEST FAILURE: A COMPARISON OF BETA REGRESSION, QUASI-BINOMIAL REGRESSION, AND BETA MIXED MODELS Kusumaningrum, Dian; Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Kurnia, Anang; Sartono, Bagus; Sumertajaya, I Made
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2611-2622

Abstract

The Paddy harvest failure rate is one of the key aspects in determining the total number of claims in a crop insurance policy. It is also an important factor indicating the fulfillment of targeted total production. Therefore, we proposed Beta Regression, Quasi Binomial Regression, and Beta Mixed Models which can be used to analyze significant variables affecting paddy harvest failure rates. Model selection and evaluations indicated that the Nested Beta Mixed Model is the best. Previous research has shown four significant fixed effect variables: drought, flood, pests, and disease risks. Pests and other types of risks also affect the variability of loss rate. All variables have positive effects, indicating higher values cause a higher possibility of a higher average harvest failure rate. High variability was shown for province, municipality, and farmers' random effects. Hence, to prevent a more significant loss rate, MoA should consider more intensive and innovative participatory activities in farmer groups to enhance good farming practices, especially for farmers who suffer from certain risks. These activities should also consider the local characteristics of each province or municipality. As for AUTP development and improvement, farmers with lower failure risks could be given a discounted premium to make it more appealing.
A COMPARISON OF RANDOM FOREST AND DOUBLE RANDOM FOREST: DROPOUT RATES OF MADRASAH STUDENTS IN INDONESIA Purwanto, Arie; Sartono, Bagus; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp227-236

Abstract

Random forest algorithm allows for building better CART models. However, the disadvantage of this method is often underfitting, especially for small node sizes. Therefore, the double random forest method was developed to overcome this problem. The research was conducted by utilising Education Management Information System (EMIS) data, which is related to the incidence of school dropout. The data used consists of 2 data, namely MTs and MA dropout data. The initial testing procedure was carried out using the random forest algorithm for each data set, then the data was evaluated using the double random forest method. From this study, the underfitting case can be overcome well using the double random forest algorithm, while in the fit case, the difference in the goodness-of-fit value of the model is relatively the same. The results obtained show that MTs prioritise school quality more than MA, although family factors are more important at the MA level. Although the total number of factors used is basically the same, it should be noted that the two school levels have different relevance variables. It should be noted that no forecasting was done in this study given that the methodology used two different types of data.
Clustering Indonesian Neobanking Users Through Extended UTAUT 3 for Retention Campaign Strategy Rahmatulloh, Febriandi; Sumarwan, Ujang; Hartoyo, Hartoyo; Sartono, Bagus
ETIKONOMI Vol. 24 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v24i2.42599

Abstract

Research Originality: This study develops a behavior-anchored segmentation framework for Indonesian neobank users by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT-3) with trust and marketplace application usage, providing deeper insights into user behavior. Research Objectives: The research aims to identify distinct neobank user segments and key behavioral drivers to support targeted strategies in digital financial services. Research Method: An extended UTAUT-3 model incorporating trust and marketplace usage was validated through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Balanced Iterative Reducing and Clustering using Hierarchies (BIRCH) clustering was applied to data from 386 active users, with segment validity confirmed using Elbow, Gap, and Silhouette methods. Empirical Results: The results revealed that trust, habit, and marketplace usage emerged as primary drivers of engagement and user recommendations. This study identifies four user segments: transitioning explorers, urban occasionalists, rural digital enthusiasts, and cost-conscious digital natives. Implications: Urban Occasionalists and Rural Digital Enthusiasts show strong potential for long-term growth. Targeted engagement and personalized retention strategies for these segments can enhance customer lifetime value and strengthen user advocacy. JEL Classification: G21, M31, C38
Competitive analysis and strategic improvement of polypropylene polytam pf-1000 in indonesia Rahardi, Naufal; Hartoyo, Hartoyo; Sartono, Bagus
JHSS (JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL STUDIES) Vol 9, No 1 (2025): Journal of Humanities and Social Studies
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS PAKUAN

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33751/jhss.v9i1.11662

Abstract

This research intends to assess the competing capabilities of Polytam PF-1000 with other products available in the market Indonesia and suggest alternative approaches to strengthen its market position. A mixed approach was conducted combining survey with 305 respondents and detailed interviews, then using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Multiple regression results suggest that the Demand Conditions variable is the most determinant in competitiveness (β = 0.990, p < 0.05), then Related and Supporting Industries (β = 0.812), Firm Strategy, Structure, and Rivalry (β = 0.218), and lastly Factor Conditions (β = 0.159). It elaborates the necessity of understanding the market, collaboration in the business industry, formulating business strategy, and resource allocation in enhancing competitiveness of Polytam PF-1000. Further AHP (analytical hierarchy process) analysis using 55 stakeholders managed to rank two other group’s components and their weight: Factor Conditions was prioritized and received the most weight at 0.518, followed by Demand Conditions which was rated by 0.261. From the interviews, technological advancement, supply chain improvement, and expansion of market coverage formed the primary strategies. One of the angles of perspective that was surprising is that the consumers want a quicker response to their needs, while the internal stakeholders want investment in the needed resources and infrastructure. Along with regulatory changes and energy efficiency, these are new alternative strategies that were outside Porter’s Diamond.
COMPARISON OF RANDOM FOREST AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE CLASSIFICATION METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE ACCURACY LEVEL OF MADRASAH DATA Syarip, Dodi Irawan; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 18, No 1 (2025): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.18.1.37-48

Abstract

This study aims to identify the most effective classification method for predicting the accuracy level of madrasah data with class imbalance. Two machine learning approaches were employed: Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Based on the AUC values, it was concluded that the RF model had a slightly better performance in predicting the accuracy level of the madrasah data, with an average AUC of 62.82, compared to the SVM model, which had an average AUC of 62.33. Among all models, the highest and consistent performance was achieved by the RF model using ROSE techniques. The results of measuring variable importance showed that the predictor variables with the greatest influence in predicting the accuracy level of the madrasah data are the number of students and the student-to-teacher and staff ratio. This finding suggests that school principals and madrasah administrative staff should prioritize ensuring the completeness of student, teacher, and staff data to improve the overall reliability of madrasah data.
Evaluating Fasttext and Glove Embeddings for Sentiment Analysis of AI-Generated Ghibli-Style Images Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah; Yusran, Muhammad; Sari, Jefita Resti; Suhaeni, Cici; Sartono, Bagus; Dito, Gerry Alfa
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 9 No. 5 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v9i5.10600

Abstract

The development of text-to-image generation technology based on artificial intelligence has triggered mixed public reactions, especially when applied to iconic visual styles such as Studio Ghibli. This research aims to evaluate public sentiment towards the phenomenon of Ghibli-style AI images by comparing two static word embedding methods, namely FastText and GloVe, on three classification algorithms: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Data in the form of Indonesian tweets were collected from Twitter using hashtags such as #ghibli, #ghiblistyle, and #hayaomiyazaki during the period 25 March to 25 April 2025. Each tweet was manually labelled with positive or negative sentiment, then preprocessed and represented using pre-trained FastText and GloVe embeddings. Evaluation was conducted using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, both macro and weighted. Results showed that FastText consistently performed the best on most models, especially in terms of precision and overall accuracy, thanks to its ability to handle sub-word information and spelling variations in social media texts. The combination of CNN with FastText yielded the highest performance with a macro F1-score of 76.56% and accuracy of 84.69%. However, GloVe still showed competitive performance in recall on the Logistic Regression model, making it relevant for contexts that prioritise sentiment detection coverage. This study emphasizes the importance of selecting embeddings and models that are appropriate to the characteristics of the data and the purpose of the analysis in informal social media-based sentiment classification.
COMPARISON OF LOGISTIC MODEL TREE AND RANDOM FOREST ON CLASSIFICATION FOR POVERTY IN INDONESIA Sukarna, Sukarna; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.112-123

Abstract

Classification methods are commonly employed to ensure homogeneous data within each group, facilitating the prediction of specific categories. The most frequently used classification models are Logistic Model Tree (LMT) and Random Forest (RF). This study aims to assess the accuracy rate in predicting the poverty status of regencies or towns across Indonesia, utilizing eight independent variables. The entire dataset was obtained from the official Central Bureau of Statistics website. The study investigates the accuracy of various iterations and combinations of training data. The results indicate that RF outperforms LMT in terms of accuracy, achieving a 100% improvement in iterations k=10 and k=500 and a 75% improvement in iteration k=100. Consequently, the RF proves to be more effective than the LMT for analyzing Indonesian poverty data, especially when incorporating all eight independent variables.
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Achmad Fauzan Achmad Fauzan, Achmad Achsani, Noer Azham Ade Agusti Alwinie Adi Hadianto, Adi Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Ain Fitri Basri Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfa Nugraha Pradana Alfian Futuhul Hadi Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisa Permata Sari Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arie Wahyu Wijayanto Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Arif Imam Suroso Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Ayu Sofia Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Claudian Tikulimbong Tangdilomban Dani Al Mahkya Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Dela Gustiara Denanda Aufadlan Tsaqif Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Desi Prabandari Kusuma Ningtyas Desi Prabandari Kusuma Ningtyas Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Desy Endriani Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dhanu Saptowulan Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Erzalianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Dyah Setyo Rini Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Erfiani Erfiani Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI Evita Purnaningrum Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fatiya Hanifah Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Fauziah, Nadira Aribah Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Gusti Arviana Rahman Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hari Wijayanto Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hazelita Dwi Rahmasari Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Ines Riantika Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Joice Junansi Tandirerung Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Kenny Masbagusdanta Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Kharismatul Zaenab Akhilla Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kinanti Rizky Pangestutik Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni La Surimi La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Linda Karlina Sari Lisa Amelia Luh Putu Widya Adnyani Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Mardatunnisa Isnaini Matualage, Dariani Mega Maulina Mega Ramatika Putri Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meri Hari Yanni Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muh. Sunan Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Rizal Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya MY, Hadyanti Utami Nimmi Zulbainarni Nisa Nur Aisyah Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purwanto, Arie Puspita, Novi Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rere Kautsar Rhendy K P Widiyanto Rina Oktaviani Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi Annafi Muhadi Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Rupmana Br Butar Sachnaz Desta Oktarina Saka Haditya Murpraptomo salsa bila Saptowulan Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Shalshabilla Shafa Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Siti Aisyah Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Sukarna Sukarna Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syaifullah Yusuf Ramdhan Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Syella Zignora Limba Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Ujang Sumarwan Ulfia, Ratu Risha Unique Desyrre A. Resiloy Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Widiyanto, Rhendy K P Windi Pangesti Yani Prihantini Hiola Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah Zulhijrah Zulmi, Muhammad Indra