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Bagus Sartono
Departmen Statistika Institut Pertanian Bogor Gedung IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti Wing 22 Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor (16680) Indonesia Phone: +62-811-118-508
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STACKING ENSEMBLE APPROACH IN STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING USING CMIP6-DCPP FOR RAINFALL ESTIMATION IN RIAU Mahkya, Dani Al; Djuraidah, Anik; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Sartono, Bagus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 17, No 1 (2024): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.17.1.1-12

Abstract

Rainfall modeling and prediction is one of the important things to do. Rainfall has an important relationship and role with various aspects of the environment. One phenomenon that can be associated with rainfall is forest and land fires. Riau is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has a high potential for forest and land fires. This is because Riau has a large area of peatland. One approach that can be used to estimate rainfall is statistical downscaling. The concept of this approach is to form a functional relationship between global and local data. This research uses CMIP6-DCPP output data that will be used to estimate rainfall at 10 observation stations in Riau. The proposed model in this research is Stacking Ensemble with PC Regression and LASSO Regression in the base model and Multiple Linear Regression in the meta model. This research aims to determine the best CMIP6-DCPP model for estimating rainfall in Riau and increasing the accuracy of rainfall estimates using the Stacking Ensemble approach.
Evaluation of Machine Learning Models in Classifying Women's Labor Force Participation in West Java Siregar, Indra Rivaldi; Pratiwi, Windy Ayu; Nugraha, Adhiyatma; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Techno.Com Vol. 24 No. 1 (2025): Februari 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62411/tc.v24i1.11945

Abstract

This study compares four classification models—Logistic Regression, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost)—to predict women's labor force participation in West Java, using a dataset of 62 features. After feature selection, the dataset was reduced to 31 features, followed by modeling with the top 10 most important features from each model. Model performance, evaluated using Balanced Accuracy, F1-Score, and Cohen’s Kappa, showed similar results, with RF and XGBoost slightly outperforming the others. However, the differences were not significant, indicating comparable predictive ability across models. The top 10 features from each model were averaged, and the five most influential features were selected. Key factors influencing women's employment status include household responsibilities, age, education, district minimum wage, and the age of the youngest child. The analysis found that 79.6% of unemployed women manage household duties, while employed women are less involved (18.9%). Age was significant, with employed women mostly in the 35-55 age range, correlating with older children and greater workforce participation. Additionally, employed women are more likely to come from regions with lower minimum wages, suggesting that economic necessity drives their labor market participation. Keywords: female labor force, machine learning, classification, West Java
Optimizing Random Forest Parameters with Hyperparameter Tuning for Classifying School-Age KIP Eligibility in West Java Setyowati, Silfiana Lis; Qalbi, Asyifah; Aristawidya, Rafika; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Vol 7, No 1: February 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjom.v7i1.28736

Abstract

Random Forest is an ensemble learning algorithm that combines multiple decision trees to generate a more stable and accurate classification model. This study aims to optimize Random Forest parameters for classifying school-age students' eligibility for the Kartu Indonesia Pintar (KIP) in West Java, based on economic factors. The research uses secondary data from the 2023 National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) of West Java, with a sample size of 13,044 individuals. To address class imbalance, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied. Hyperparameter tuning through grid search identifies the optimal combination of parameters, including the number of trees (ntree), random variables per split (mtry), and terminal node size (node_size). Model performance is evaluated using balanced accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results indicate that the optimal parameters (mtry = 5, ntree = 674, node_size = 26) yield a balanced accuracy of 65.47%. Significant variables include PKH status, floor area of the house, source of drinking water, and building material type. The model accurately identifies students in need of educational assistance. In conclusion, optimizing Random Forest parameters improves the accuracy of KIP eligibility classification, supporting educational equity policies in West Java. These findings provide a foundation for developing more effective beneficiary selection systems for educational aid.
Evaluasi Kinerja Model Random Forest dan LightGBM untuk Klasifikasi Status Imunisasi Hepatitis B (HB-0) pada Balita Syam, Ummul Auliyah; Irdayanti, Irdayanti; Magfirrah, Indah; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 1 April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i1.29762

Abstract

Hepatitis B (HB-0) immunization in infants is an important step in preventing the transmission of hepatitis B from an early age and improving public health. This study aims to classify the HB-0 immunization status of infants in West Java Province. The method used is the Random Forest and LightGBM algorithms. The research results showed that the Random Forest model had a balanced accuracy of 0.8443, which was slightly higher than LightGBM (0.8357). This indicated that Random Forest performed better in classifying the HB-0 immunization status of infants in West Java Province, accurately distinguishing between those who received and did not receive the immunization without bias toward either class. The global analysis using the Random Forest model identified six feature importance that contributed the most to the model’s performance: BCG immunization status, ownership of the KIA/KMS book, mother’s age, household head’s age, age at first pregnancy, and regency or city classification of residence. The feature importance analysis using SHAP for the first observation showed that BCG immunization status, ownership of the KIA/KMS book, and regency or city classification of residence increased the likelihood of infants receiving immunization. Conversely, the number of children (4), mother’s age (37 years), and household head’s age (40 years) increased the likelihood of infants not receiving immunization. This study is expected to provide data-driven insights for the government to design more effective interventions to improve immunization coverage and child health in Indonesia while also supporting the achievement of global health targets.
AN APPLICATION OF GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR CLUSTERING OBSERVATIONS WITH INCOMPLETE DATA Frisca Rizki Ananda; Asep Saefuddin; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 1 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v1i1.48

Abstract

Cluster analysis is a method to classify observations into several clusters. A common strategy for clustering the observations uses distance as a similarity index. However distance approach cannot be applied when data is not complete. Genetic Algorithm is applied by involving variance (GACV) in order to solve this problem. This study employed GACV on Iris data that was introduced by Sir Ronald Fisher. Clustering the incomplete data was implemented on data which was produced by deleting some values of Iris data. The algorithm was developed under R 3.0.2 software and got satisfying result for clustering complete data with 95.99% sensitivity and 98% consistency. GACV could be applied to cluster observations with missing value without filling in the missing value or excluding these observations. Performance on clustering incomplete observations is also satisfying but tends to decrease as the proportion of incomplete values increases. The proportion of incomplete values should be less than or equal to 40% to get sensitivity and consistency not less than 90. Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Genetic Algorithm, Incomplete Data.
PENGGUNAAN SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION DALAM PEMODELAN INDEKS SAHAM SYARIAH INDONESIA DENGAN ALGORITME GRID SEARCH Galih Hedy Saputra; Aji Hamim Wigena; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i2.172

Abstract

Indonesia as the largest Muslim population country in the world is a very potential market for sharia stocks. Sharia stocks performance can be seen from the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). Stock index modeling is conducted to determine the factors that affect the stock index or to predict the value of the stock index. Modeling using regression analysis is based on assumptions that do not always match with the characteristics of stock data that fluctuate. Support Vector Regression (SVR) method is a non-parametric approach based on machine learning. The problem often encountered in the analysis using SVR is to determine the optimal parameters to produce the best model. The determination of the optimal parameters can be solved by using the grid search algorithm. The purpose of this research is to make ISSI model using SVR with grid search algorithm with independent variable BI Rate, money supply, and exchange rate (USD / IDR). The best SVR model was obtained using weekly data with a total of 343 periods as well as a linear kernel with parameters ε = 0.03 and C = 2. The evaluation of the best model SVR is RMSE of 2.289 and correlation value of 0.873.
CONSTRUCTING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER-EXPOSURE LIKELIHOOD INDEX USING SHAPLEY-VALUE REGRESSION APPROACH Rahma Anisa; Bagus Sartono; Pika Silvianti; Aam Alamudi; Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.198

Abstract

Indonesia is very prone to earthquake disaster because it is located in the Pacific ring of fire. Therefore, a reference level of earthquake disaster exposure likelihood events in Indonesia is needed in order to increase people's awareness about the risks. This study aims to determine the index that describes the risk of possible future earthquake disaster. As initial research, this study is focus on earthquake disasters in Java region, as it has the largest population in Indonesia. Several indicators that are related to the severity of earthquake disaster impact, were used in this study. The weights of each indicators were determined by considering its shapley-value, thus all indicators gave equal contribution to the proposed index. The results showed that shapley-value approach can be utilized to construct index with equal contribution of each indicators. In general, the resulted index had similar pattern with the number of damaged houses in each districts.
PENERAPAN CYLINDRICAL DAN FLEXIBLE SPACE TIME SCAN STATISTIC DALAM MENGIDENTIFIKASI KANTONG KEMISKINAN DI PULAU JAWA TAHUN 2011-2015 Zaima Nurrusydah; Erfiani Erfiani; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 3 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v3i2.274

Abstract

The Indonesian government formed the National Team for the Acceleration of Poverty Reduction (TNP2K) to eradicate poverty. TNP2K requires identification of priority areas or poverty hotspots so that the program can be targeted. Scan statistic is one of the most widely used methods to identify poverty hotspots. Cylindrical STSS uses cylindrical scanning windows while most geographical areas are not circular. Flexible STSS is able to detect poverty hotspots in a flexible form. This study aims to identify poverty hotspots using Cylindrical and Flexible STSS then compare the results of both and then determine the best STSS method. Cylindrical STSS tends to have wider hotspots than Flexible STSS. There are a number of districts that are not eligible to be included as poverty Flexible STSS is able to produce better poverty hotspots by not including these districts Poverty hotspots produced by Flexible STSS have higher LLR values. The more suitable STSS method has optimal K values and high suitability with TNP2K priority areas. Cylindrical STSS has an optimal K value when K = 8 and 9. Flexible STSS has a constant LLR value. Flexible STSS has a higher LLR value than Cylindrical STSS at each K value. Flexible STSS with K = 9 has optimal K and high suitability with TNP2K priority areas so that it is the more suitable STSS method to identify poverty hotspots in Java.
KAJIAN VALIDITAS INSTRUMEN PENGUKURAN SKALA PENGALAMAN KERAWANAN PANGAN DI INDONESIA Herlina Herlina; Bagus Sartono; Budi Susetyo
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 4 No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v4i1.543

Abstract

The results of the FAO study since 2013 through the Voices of Hungry Project (VoH-FAO) have produced measures of the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). FIES is a global reference scale that becomes a reference for comparing the prevalence of food insecurity between countries and regions. The challenge of using the FIES instrument, each country must carry out linguistic adaptations that are appropriate to the culture and national language. This study aims to analyze the validity of FIES measurements in Indonesia, including internal and external analysis. The Rasch model (RM) used for internal validity analysis. Measurement of the validity and reliability of Indonesian FIES items was calibrated with a global reference scale. Differences in the scale of calibration items with a global reference scale of less than 0.35 indicate that they are standard items. FIES measurements require at least five common items. External analysis of FIES measurements uses the Pearson correlation between district-level aggregation on each FIES item that is answered "yes" and determinant characteristics of household food insecurity. The expected correlation coefficient indicated the direction of a positive correlation and observed the correlation coefficient of item 1501 to 1508, which is getting smaller. Internal analysis of FIES measurements in Indonesia shows the achievement of unidimensional and local independence assumptions. However, item 1501 has identified as an outlier. Then identify unique issues are 1501 and 1504, while unique items in rural subsamples are 1503 and 1508. Unique item differences founded in food expenditure 60 percent or more, i.e., 1502. This shows a discordance with items assumption of parameter invariance. The reliability of the FIES item is 0.78, and this reflects the suitability of the model quite well. External analysis of the FIES measurement identifies item 1501 and 1504 as invalid items (unique items).
Handling of Overdispersion in the Poisson Regression Model with Negative Binomial for the Number of New Cases of Leprosy in Java: Penanganan Overdispersi pada Model Regresi Poisson dengan Binomial Negatif untuk Jumlah Kasus Baru Kusta di Jawa Yopi Ariesia Ulfa; Agus M Soleh; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p1-13

Abstract

Based on data from the Directorate General of Disease Prevention and Control of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, in 2017, new leprosy cases that emerged on Java Island were the highest in Indonesia compared to the number of events on other islands. The purpose of this study is to compare Poisson regression to a negative binomial regression model to be applied to the data on the number of new cases of leprosy and to find out what explanatory variables have a significant effect on the number of new cases of leprosy in Java. This study's results indicate that a negative binomial regression model can overcome the Poisson regression model's overdispersion. Variables that significantly affect the number of new cases of leprosy based on the results of negative binomial regression modeling are total population, percentage of children under five years who had immunized with BCG, and percentage of the population with sustainable access to clean water.
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Abyan, Muhammad Fatih Achmad Fauzan Achsani, Noer Azham Adi Hadianto Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Aisyah, Nisa Nur Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Akhilla, Kharismatul Zaenab Alfa Nugraha Pradana ALFIAN FUTUHUL HADI Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraeni, Kartika Novira Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisa Permata Sari, Annisa Permata Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Anwar Fajar Rizki Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arie Wahyu Wijayanto Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Aryasa, Komang Budi Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Audina, Delia Fitri Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Ayu Sofia Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Butar, Rupmana Br Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Citra, Reza Felix Dani Al Mahkya Darwis Darwis Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Dela Gustiara Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Desi Prabandari Kusuma Ningtyas Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dhanu Saptowulan Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Fitrianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Endriani, Desy Erfiani Erfiani Erira, Salsa Rifda Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI EVITA PURNANINGRUM Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fany Apriliani Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hardiana Widyastuti Hari Wijayanto Hari Yanni, Meri Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana Hiola, Yani Prihantini I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul IMARA, FADIAH RETNO INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Intan Arassah, Fradha Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Ita Wulandari Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni Kusuma Ningtyas, Desi Prabandari La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Limba, Syella Zignora Linda Karlina Sari Lisa Amelia Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Mardatunnisa Isnaini Matualage, Dariani Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya Musthafa, Hafiz Syaikhul MY, Hadyanti Utami Nimmi Zulbainarni Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah Nurrahmaniah, Nurrahmaniah Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Parwati Sofan, Parwati Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purnaningrum, Evita Purwanto, Arie Puspita, Novi Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putri, Mega Ramatika Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rere Kautsar Resiloy, Unique Desyrre A. Rhendy K P Widiyanto Riantika, Ines Rina Oktaviani Rini, Dyah Setyo Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi Annafi Muhadi Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Sachnaz Desta Oktarina salsa bila Saptowulan Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiabudi, Nur Andi Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Shalshabilla Shafa Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Sri Amaliya Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Suhaeri, ⁠Bulan Cahyani Sukarna Sukarna Sunan, Muh. Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan Ujang Sumarwan Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Virgie, Meriza Immanuela Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Yani Nurhadryani Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Yuliani, Leny Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah Zulhijrah Zulmi, Muhammad Indra