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Prasetya, Johan Danu
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta
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Analisis Ambang Batas Curah Hujan Dengan Pendekatan Statistik Median di Daerah Rawan Longsor Samigaluh, Kulon Progo Marganiswati, Yudha Tintana; Maharani, Yohana Noradika; Cahyadi, Tedy Agung; Prasetya, Johan Danu; Prastistho, Widyawanto
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 3 December 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i3.34962

Abstract

Landslides in tropical regions are often triggered by intense rainfall, causing significant impacts. This study assesses the feasibility of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Kapanewon Samigaluh, Kulon Progo. The objectives include characterizing the rainfall regime, testing the relationship between rainfall and landslide events, evaluating spatial consistency with the landslide hazard map, and establishing and verifying operational thresholds. Landslide data from the BPBD and daily rainfall data from BMKG were processed by aligning the dates and performing quality checks, followed by quantitative analysis. The number of landslide events analysed was 197, with rainfall data collected from a single measurement station. Thresholds were set using the median approach for daily rainfall (CH0) and three-day accumulation (CH−2) from the 2014–2023 series. Verification was conducted on 213 days of the 2024 rainy season using Proportion Correct. Characterization shows a consistent monsoonal pattern with notable interannual variability. A positive tendency is observed between annual rainfall accumulation and landslide frequency. Spatially, around 93% of events occur in high-hazard zones. The median-based thresholds obtained are 31 mm for CH0 and 81 mm for CH−2. Operational verification results in PC values of 84.0% for CH0 and 83.6% for CH−2, indicating acceptable performance. Physically, the intensity of rainfall on event days effectively distinguishes landslide from nonlandslide days, while three-day rainfall accumulation increases risk through soil saturation. These findings support the implementation of locally calibrated thresholds for strengthening early warning, with a focus on monitoring during the rainy season. However, the potential for false alarms related to geological conditions and land-use variability may affect model accuracy. Furthermore, periodic recalibration of thresholds is necessary to address uncertainties resulting from changing hydrometeorological conditions and land-use dynamics.
Co-Authors Aditya Pandu Wicaksono Aditya Pandu Wicaksono Aditya Pandu Wicaksono Agung Yulianto Nugroho Agus Bambang Irawan Agus Bambang Irawan Ahmad Sobirin Aisya Rahmanita Algary, Tissia Ayu Andi Renata Ade Yudono Anka Indra Pangestu Annisa Dewi Masyithoh Arif Rianto Budi Nugroho Artha Putri, Awanda Dias Rizkia Arya Dipa Aristo Putra Awang Hendrianto Pratomo Ayu Utami Ayu Utami, Ayu Ayumadany, Maulidya Anggun Bambang Dwijo Pranowo Benny Antony Kaban Bramantio Dzaki Wirayuda Cahyadi, Teddy Agung Cahyadi, Tedy Agung Deni Rahman Saputra Dian Hudawan Dian Hudawan Santoso Dian Hudawan Santoso Dina Asrifah Dina Asrifah, Dina Dyah Nunki Yalesrie Effantra Effendi Eko Teguh Paripurno Elga MBM da Costa Elma, Irfan Dzaky Eni Muryani Fadhil, Achmad Restu Fairus Jelita Regita Putri Fandika Agustiyar Fara Disa Durry Ficky Adi Kurniawan Ficky Adi Kurniawan Fitriani Fitriani Foundry Giovani Galih Haryo Wisanggeni Gandar Mahojwala Gomareuzzaman, Muammar Hadi Purwanto Happitasyari, Stevanie Haryanto, Slamet Herwin Lukito Herwin Lukito Herwin Lukito Herwin Lukito, Herwin Ichsan Azrian Ika Wahyuning Widiarti Indah Nur Hidayah Inggit Fandayati Ira Andriani Ronting Irfan Dzaky Elma Istiana Rahatmawati, Istiana Kristanto, Wisnu Aji Dwi Kurniawan, Ficky Adi Listi, Listi Marganiswati, Yudha Tintana Marzun, Muhammad Hakiim Maulidya Anggun Ayumadany Maulidya Anggun Ayumadany Misya, Meilyn Monica Warih Widi Krisanti Muammar Gomareuzzaman Muammar Gomareuzzaman Muammar Gomareuzzaman Mucharomah, Nur Mugi Rahayu Mussodaq, Mochamad Nabila Farhaini Nandra Eko Nugroho Novia Mawar Sari Nugrahajati, Susilastuti Dwi Nugroho , Arif Rianto Budi Nugroho, Arif Rianto Budi Nugroho, Nandra Eko Nur Mucharomah Prastistho, Bambang Prastistho, Widyawanto Priandeni, Fitriyan Nujud Priza Tiara Titisari PUJI LESTARI PUJI LESTARI Purbudi Wahyuni PURBUDI WAHYUNI, PURBUDI Purwanta, Jaka Purwanto, Hadi Puspitasari, Lisa Putri, Fairus Jelita Regita Raiwa Mara Puspa Rohman, Taufik Fatkur Rr. Dina Asrifah Sabrina Umi Khabibah Setiyo Hartato Setiyo Hartato M Shella G Kakisina Siregar, Imerilda Parlina Sobirin, Ahmad Stephanus Maria Eduat Suharwanto Suharwanto Suharwanto Suharwanto Sukma Sahadewa, Sukma Taufik Fatkur Rohman Tissia Ayu Algary Titi tiara Anasstasia Titisari, Priza Tiara Trie Adelia Ambarwathy Vikahadi, Nanda Wenny Kartika Widyawanto Prastistho Winata, Lionesya Sukma Windyantini, Hanna Wirayuda, Bramantio Dzaki Wisanggeni, Galih Haryo Wisnu Aji Dwi Kristanto Yohana Nodarika Maharani Yohana Noradika Yohana Noradika Maharani Yohanes Ary Prayoga Yulinda Vikaya Putri Ady Rukmana Zulfa, Qonitina