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All Journal DIKSI Media Statistika MATEMATIKA Prosiding Seminar Biologi Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jurnal Pendidikan Dasar Nusantara Majalah Kulit, Karet, dan Plastik Jurnal Spektra Bioeksperimen: Jurnal Penelitian Biologi Pedagogia: Jurnal Pendidikan E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Catharsis JURNAL KEPEMIMPINAN DAN PENGURUSAN SEKOLAH Briliant: Jurnal Riset dan Konseptual Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) BIOEDUSCIENCE Jurnal Pendidikan Terbuka Dan Jarak Jauh Journal of Education and Instruction (JOEAI) Jurnal Basicedu JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) JOURNAL OF ENGLISH FOR ACADEMIC Inovasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Manajemen JIKAP PGSD: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Kependidikan International Journal for Educational and Vocational Studies JURNAL PENDIDIKAN MIPA Jurnal Paedagogy Jurnal Graha Pengabdian Journal of Early Childhood Education (JECE) Indonesian Journal of Instructional Media and Model Epistema Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Indonesia (JPPI) EDUTECH : Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Berbantuan Teknologi JURNAL LENTERA AKUNTANSI Abdi Psikonomi Journal of Education Research Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Manajemen, Bisnis dan Akuntansi Journal of Advanced Sciences and Mathematics Education Innovation Business Management and Accounting Journal Jurnal Basicedu Prosiding University Research Colloquium JURNAL ABDIMAS PLJ JIM: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pendidikan Sejarah Jurnal Edukasi Pengabdian Masyarakat: EDUABDIMAS SERIBU SUNGAI: Journal of Research and Community Service Jurnal Manajemen dan Administrasi Antartika Arty: Jurnal Seni Rupa Pinisi Journal Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar Jurnal Seni Tari Jurnal Teknik Informatika dan Desain Komunikasi Visual
Suparti Suparti
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains Dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro
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Journal : Jurnal Gaussian

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PEMODELAN KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK CAMPURAN KERNEL DAN SPLINE Khansa Amalia Fitroh; Rukun Santoso; Suparti Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 11, No 4 (2022): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.11.4.522-531

Abstract

Exchange currency is one way for a country to be able to transact with the outside world. Fluctuating movement of the rupiah exchange currency was caused by many influencing factors, such as exports, imports, the money supply (JUB), inflation, and JCI. To find out the relationship, nonparametric regression modeling was carried out with a mixed kernel estimator and a multivariable truncated linear spline. Import variables were approached with kernel regression because the data patterns were random and spread out while the export variables, JUB, inflation, and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) were approached with spline regression because the data patterns changed at certain sub-intervals. The purpose of this study is to model exchange currency of the rupiah against the US dollar with a mixed kernel and spline truncated estimator. The parameter estimation method used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The multivariable linear truncated spline and kernel mix estimator depends on knot points and bandwidth. The best model is seen from the knot point and optimal bandwidth obtained by selecting the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The best model is applied to data on the exchange currency of the rupiah against the US dollar with two optimal knot points resulting in value of 0.7627. The model performance evaluation was calculated using MAPE and the resulting MAPE value was 0.598%.
PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DENGAN MODEL NONPARAMETRIK POLINOMIAL LOKAL DAN SPLINE TRUNCATED UNTUK PERAMALAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE (WTI) DILENGKAPI GUI R Salsabila Rizkia Gusman; Suparti Suparti; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.1.20-29

Abstract

Crude oil as one of the most important natural resources experiences price fluctuations from time to time, even the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) world crude oil on 20th April 2020 reached -36,98 USD/barrel due to the Covid-19 pandemic. WTI oil price data was modeled using the ARIMA method, local polynomial, and spline truncated nonparametric regression then compared and obtained the best model and formed R Graphical User Interface (GUI). The ARIMA model and nonparametric time series models can be used to model time series data, but in the ARIMA model there are assumptions that must be fulfilled. Nonparametric time series models, which include local polynomial model and truncated spline do not need to fulfill these assumptions. The ARIMA model obtained did not fulfilled the assumptions of normality and residual homoscedasticity, so the modeling was stopped and modeling was only carried out using nonparametric regression methods. Based on the minimum MSE criteria, the best nonparametric model was obtained, namely nonparametric truncated spline model with degrees 3 and 3 knot points which was categorized as a strong model based on R-squared in sample value and having a very good forecasting ability based on MAPE out sample value.
PEMODELAN HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN PROPERTI DAN REAL ESTATE MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LONGITUDINAL SPLINE TRUNCATED DILENGKAPI GUI R Nurina Salma Alfiyyah; Suparti Suparti; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.1.42-51

Abstract

Stocks are one of the most popular financial instruments traded in the capital market. One of stock prices fluctuate up and down due to the influence of several factors, one of which is inflation. Stocks in the property and real estate sectors are important indicators to determine the level of a country economy. Data on several stock prices is one case of longitudinal data in economic field. The data is divided into 2 parts, namely in sample data from January 2016 to October 2020 and out sample data from November 2020 to December 2021. In this study, longitudinal stock price data is modeling using nonparametric spline truncated. The best spline truncated model is determined by the order and the optimal number of knot points based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation value. Spline truncated nonparametric regression modeling for longitudinal data in this study is equipped with Graphical User Interface (GUI) that can facilitate the data processing. The results of the analysis show that the best longitudinal spline truncated regression model obtained on 2nd order with 5 knot points. 95.04% value of  indicates the model is a strong model. In the evaluation of the best model, the MAPE data out sample value is 16.45%. It indicates the model has good forecasting ability.
ANALISIS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DAN FAKTOR PENGARUHNYA MENGGUNAKAN PEMODELAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK KERNEL DILENGKAPI GUI-R Arnisa Melani Kahar; Suparti Suparti; Arief Rachman Hakim
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.1.30-41

Abstract

Composite Stock Price Index (IDX) shows the movement of stock prices used by investors to determine their investment strategy. IDX movement is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as money supply and inflation, so regression analysis is used to determine the relationship between the variables. Based on the scatterplot, money supply is known as a parametric predictor variable as it has a linier line patterned scatterplot and inflation is a nonparametric predictor variable as it has a random patterned scatterplot, so semiparametric regression modelling is used for the analysis. Kernel regression was chosen to analyze the nonparametric component based on the random patterned scatterplot of inflation. This study aims to obtain the results of semiparametric kernel regression modelling analysis and to create a GUI to be applied to the analysis as a development of previous similar studies that still done based on CLI. This study uses monthly data from January 2013 to December 2020 with the proportion of in sample and out sample data distribution 87,5%:12,5%. Based on the smallest MSE value as the best model criteria, semiparametric regression model with triangle kernel function is the best model obtained with optimal bandwidth=3.24,  which means the model is strong and  which means that the forecasting results are very accurate. GUI has been created according to the needs of the modelling analysis implementation.
PEMODELAN DATA LONGITUDINAL MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI POLINOMIAL LOKAL PADA KELOMPOK SAHAM PERUSAHAAN PENYEDIA JASA TELEKOMUNIKASI DENGAN GUI R Noer Rachma, Gustyas Zella; Suparti, Suparti; Santoso, Rukun
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 3 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.3.352-361

Abstract

The economic development of a country can be seen based on the capital market that was growing and developing. One of the most popular capital market instruments is stocks. Stocks based on market capitalization groups include longitudinal data. One of the statistical methods for longitudinal data modelling is nonparametric regression which has no modelling assumptions requirement. This research models monthly stock prices using a nonparametric local polynomial method with the selection of the best model which has minimum value of Mean Square Error (MSE). The data was divided into 2 parts, namely in sample data from November, 2018 to June, 2021 to form a model and out sample data from July, 2021 to February, 2022 used for evaluation of model performance by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values. The best model is the local polynomial model with Biweight kernel function of degree 5, local point of 4, bandwidth of 37, and MSE value of 0.03481085. MAPE out sample of data value is 31.13%, which indicating that the model has sufficient forecasting. In this research arrange Graphical User Interface (GUI) by using R software with shiny package is built to make display output data analyzing more easy and more interactive.
ANALISIS SISTEM PELAYANAN GARDU TOL OTOMATIS GERBANG TOL GAYAMSARI MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYESIAN Akbari, Windusiwi Asih; Sugito, Sugito; Suparti, Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.4.531-538

Abstract

Transportation is important things to support mobility. The high level of mobility is in line with the growth of vehicles which has increased causing congestion on roads. Highways are one of the government’s efforts to reduce congestion. Gayamsari Toll Gate is one of the toll gates in Semarang City that experiencing the phenomenon of queuing when paying tolls. This study aims to determine the operation of the service system by obtaining a queuing model and system performance measures from the distribution of arrivals and services. Bayesian method is used to determine the distribution of arrivals and services by finding the posterior distribution. The combination of the sample likelihood function and the prior distribution is known as Bayesian method. The prior distribution used is the previous research data which produces a negative binomial distribution. The likelihood function of the arrival sample in this study is discrete uniform and the likelihood function of the service sample produces a negative binomial distribution. The results are the queuing system model is (Beta/Beta/5): (GD/∞/∞). Based on the results of the queue simulation, we can assume that the service system is optimal.
ANALISIS KEPUASAN TERHADAP LAYANAN APLIKASI DOLTINUKU DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING-PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (SEM-PLS) Ul Haq, Hasna Faridah Dhiya; Hakim, Arief Rachman; Suparti, Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.4.605-615

Abstract

Doltinuku is an application that is used to buy and sell products and services online from MSME in Gedawang, Banyumanik Sub-District, Semarang City which was just launched in June 2021. Because this application is still new, this application needs to be developed by looking at users' satisfaction. This study wants to determine Doltinuku customer satisfaction using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) method. PLS is an alternative method of SEM that is able to handle variance-based problems. In this study, customer satisfaction is measured through variables such as Quality, Information, Reputation, and Trust. Based on the results of the analysis, variables that have a significant effect on customer satisfaction are variable Quality and Reputation and have influence of 70.9% on satisfaction whose value is obtained from the R2 value. Then the variables that have no significant effect are variable Information and variable Trust.
ANALISIS SENTIMEN PENGGUNA ONLINE TRAVEL AGENT (OTA) PADA PERUSAHAAN PEGIPEGI.COM MENGGUNAKAN RANDOM FOREST Lestari, Ayu; Santoso, Rukun; Suparti, Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.4.616-624

Abstract

The presence of the internet makes online applications increasingly attractive to the public in supporting their daily activities. Online applications have developed rapidly, including online travel agent (OTA) companies such as Pegipegi. Pegipegi is a platform designed to meet the community's tertiary needs, such as providing accommodations for vacations. Pegipegi has an application that can be downloaded through the Google Playstore. Google Playstore provides a review feature as a medium for communication between application owners and consumers to express opinions that felt when using the application. The reviews submitted can be used as data to carry out sentiment analysis. Data collection was carried out on 11 December 2021 – 11 December 2022. A total of 2926 reviews obtained. Sentiment analysis was able to proceed by a classification method. This research used Random Forest to classify opinions on positive and negative sentiments. Random Forest is a classification model based on the majority vote of all decision trees. Classification using Random Forest produces an accuracy of 92.27% and AUC-ROC of 82.35%. Based on this accuracy and AUC-ROC value, the Random Forest algorithm has a good model performance in classifying the opinions of Pegipegi application users because it has a good accuracy and AUC-ROC value.
Co-Authors A. Sulaksono, A. A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Aan Sofyan Abdul Hoyyi Adhytia, Rizkyhimawan Afandi, Adam Pri Agus Cahyono Agus Prasetya Agus Rusgiyono Agus Triyono Akbari, Windusiwi Asih Alan Prahutama Alanindra Saputra Alvita Rachma Devi Amanda Devi Paramitha Ambarwati Aminah Asngad Ananda, Refisa Angelia, Yuni Anggun Ella Indriyani Anik Rahmawati, Anik Anjarwati, Ani Any Setyaningsih, Any Arianti Suhartini Arieanti, Dian Dinarafika Arief Rachman Hakim Arief Rachman Hakim Arnisa Melani Kahar Ash Shiddiq, Fanchas Asismarta Asismarta, Asismarta Ayu Annisa Gharini AYU LESTARI Azizah, Adilla Nur Badriyah, Ratu Bahtiar Ilham Triyunanto Brillianing Pratiwi Budi Warsito Budiarti, Arivia Ayu Busnang, Yuliawati C Yuwono Sumasto, C Yuwono Deden Aditya Nanda, Deden Aditya Dewi, Anggra Lita Sandra Dewi, P A R Dhany Efita Sari Dhea Dewanti Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Sambada Dwi Wahyuningsih, Dwi Dwikoranto Eka Anisha Eka Destiyani Eka Fadilah Eka Wijayanti Eko Sugiyanto Ermanuri, Ermanuri Erna Sulistianingsih Ernawati, Devi Ernik Yuliana Esti Pratiwi Evelyna, Feby Evi Oktaviana, Desy Fadilah, Eka Fitri Juniaty Simatupang, Fitri Juniaty Gina Wangsih Hamid, Lukman Hanifa Adityarahma Hanifah Nur Aini Happy Suci Puspitasari Hartono Hartono Hasbi Yasin Haya, Lovina Rizki Heni Nurhaeni I Made Sulandra Ihdayani Banun Afa Immawati Ainun Habibah Intaniasari, Yossinta Iut Tri Utami Iut Triutami Izzudin Khalid, Izzudin Janaka, Janaka Jefferio Gusti Putratama Jody Hendrian Juwanda, Farikhin Karimawati, Nurul Kartika, Aninda Ayu Karwanto, Karwanto Khaerul Anam Khansa Amalia Fitroh Khansa, I H Khoirunnisa, Siti Intan Khulaifiyah, Khulaifiyah Lamik Nabil Mu'affa Lanjari , Restu Lina Agustina Lintangesukmanjaya, R T Lismiyati Marfuah, Lismiyati Lisnayati, Lisnayati Lulu Maulatus Saidah Lulus Darwati, Lulus M. Noris M. Pratama Aryansah Maman Suryaman MASLIHATIN, LINA Meiliawati Aniska Milawati Milawati Moch. Abdul Mukid Mokhamad Nurjam'i MUHAMAD SHOLEH Muhammad Sulaiman Muhammad Taufan Muhtadi Muhtadi Muqorobin, Masculine Muhammad Mustafid Mustafid Mustaji Mustaji, Mustaji Mustofa, Achmad Nastiti, Tri Dyah Netriwati Nia Istiana Noer Rachma, Gustyas Zella Nunuk Hariyati Nurhayati, Rizky Nurina Salma Alfiyyah Nurlia, Titim Nurmanita, Tiara Sevi Nurul Fitria Fitria Rizani Ovie Auliya’atul Faizah Paula Meilina Dwi Hapsari Peter Rajagukguk Pranata, Sepbrie Mulia Bingah Prasetyo, Mario Aditya Prastowo, Srihandono Budi Prastya, Agus Puspita Kartikasari Putra, D A Putri Agustina Rahma Dewi Hartati Rahman Kosasih, Fauzy Rahman, Syair Dafiq Faizur Rahmawati Patta, Rahmawati Rahyu Setiani Rambat Rambat, Rambat Renti Oktaria, Renti Retnowati, Lina Riana Ayu Andam Pradewi Richy Priyambodo Rismawati Rismawati Rita Rahmawati RIZKYHIMAWAN, ADHYTIA Rohayati, Menik Rudi Saputro Setyo Purnomo Rukun Santoso Sa'adah, Alfi Faridatus Sadjati, Ida Malati Safitri, Wardani Ana Salma Farah Aliyah Salsa Bella, Shella Salsabila Rizkia Gusman Sania Anisa Farah Sanitoria Nadeak, Sanitoria Septian Hendra Wijaya Setiawan, Fuad Alfaridzi Setyoko Prismanu Ramadhan Setyowati, Titik Sholihah, Zaimatu Silvia Elsa Suryana Silvia Nur Rinjani Singgih Subiyantoro Sirojuddin, Muhammad Siska Andriyani Siti Fadhilla Femadiyanti Sofiana Sofiana Sola Fide Sri Budiasih, Sri Sri Sumiyati Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningrum Sudargo Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugiarti, Ning Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sunardi Sunardi Supeno Supratmi, Nunung Supriyanto, Rudy Suranto Suranto Surasmi, W A Surasmi, Wuwuh Asrining Suratno Suratno Susilo, Mas Bayu Sutrisno, Supadi Bambang Syafruddin , Syafruddin Syafruddin Syafruddin Syafruddin*, Syafruddin syah, naziah Syazwina Aufa Syiva Multi Fani T. Mart, T. Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Teguh Supriyanto Tiani Wahyu Utami Triastuti Rahayu Triastuti Wuryandari Tyas Estiningrum Ul Haq, Hasna Faridah Dhiya Vera Handayani Victoria Dwi Murti Wahyu Lestari WAHYU SUKARTININGSIH Wahyu Tiara Rosaamalia Widari Widari, Widari Wiradharma, Gunawan Yasir Sidiq YATIM RIYANTO Yon Haryono Yunianika, Ika Tri Yuningsih Yuningsih Yupitasari, Yupitasari Yusak, Suharno Zein, Secondta Habib Syarifah Zia, Nabila Ghaida Zubaidah, Lailia Zuhri, Thoha Syaifudin