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All Journal International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) Tekno : Jurnal Teknologi Elektro dan Kejuruan Teknologi dan Kejuruan: Jurnal teknologi, Kejuruan dan Pengajarannya Transmisi: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro ELKHA : Jurnal Teknik Elektro Mechatronics, Electrical Power, and Vehicular Technology Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro Komputer dan Informatika (JITEKI) Jurnal Informatika dan Teknik Elektro Terapan The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) ELKOMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Energi Elektrik, Teknik Telekomunikasi, & Teknik Elektronika JURNAL NASIONAL TEKNIK ELEKTRO Jurnal ELTIKOM : Jurnal Teknik Elektro, Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer Jurnal Taman Vokasi INTENSIF: Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Penerapan Teknologi Sistem Informasi Knowledge Engineering and Data Science CIRCUIT: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Teknik Elektro Kinetik: Game Technology, Information System, Computer Network, Computing, Electronics, and Control INOVTEK POLBENG RELE: Rekayasa Elektrikal dan Energi Jurnal Teknik Elektro JURNAL KAJIAN TEKNIK ELEKTRO Jurnal Media Elektro : Journal of Electrical Power, Informatics, Telecommunication, Electronics, Computer and Control System at-tamkin: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat CYCLOTRON MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer Jurnal Inovasi Hasil Pengabdian Masyarakat (JIPEMAS) Journal of Education Technology PEDULI: Jurnal Imiah Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Kumawula: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (Mediteg) Jurnal Karinov Abdi Dosen : Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Journal of Robotics and Control (JRC) Jurnal Teknik Elektro dan Komputasi (ELKOM) Jurnal Teknik Elektro Uniba (JTE Uniba) Jurnal E-Komtek Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Frontier Energy System and Power Engineering Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Abdi Kami : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Graha Pengabdian Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Jurnal Abdimas Berdaya : Jurnal Pembelajaran, Pemberdayaan dan Pengabdian Masyarakat ABDIMASY: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat JTEIN: Jurnal Teknik Elektro Indonesia Charity : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat LOSARI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Abditeknika - Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Energi Baru dan Terbarukan AbdiTechno (Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat) International Journal of Research in Vocational Studies (IJRVOCAS) Fidelity : Jurnal Teknik Elektro SinarFe7 Abdimas Prosiding Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat IJCOSIN : Indonesian Journal of Community Service and Innovation JURNAL PENGABDIAN PENDIDIKAN MASYARAKAT (JPPM) Jurnal Riset Rumpun Agama dan Filsafat Jurnal MIPA dan Pembelajarannya Khidmatuna: Journal of Research and Community Service Jurnal Inovasi Teknologi dan Edukasi Teknik Bulletin of Social Informatics Theory and Application Power Elektronik : Jurnal Orang Elektro Jurnal Ecotipe (Electronic, Control, Telecommunication, Information, and Power Engineering) Prosiding Seminar Nasional Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (SINAPMAS) International Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Civil Engineering Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Jurnal Teknik Elektro ABDI KAMI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat TEKNOSAINS: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Informatika
Aripriharta -
Universitas Negeri Malang
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Journal : knowledge engineering and data science

 1 
Assessing Deep Learning Models and Hyperparameter Optimization for Stable Time-Series Electricity Load Forecasting Patrya, Sukma; Wibawa, Aji Prasetya; Aripriharta, Aripriharta
Knowledge Engineering and Data Science
Publisher : citeus

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Abstract

Long-term electricity load forecasting plays an important role in ensuring system reliability, optimizing energy management, and making operational plans in face of continuously rising electricity demands. This study suggests a complete deep learning method for univariate forecasting of future electricity loads based on climatology and electricity consumption data for the period between 2019 and 2023. The initial dataset was cleaned, normalized, and partitioned chronologically into train/test datasets. Four train/test split cases (20/80, 40/60, 60/40, 80/20) were considered to explore the impact of different levels of historical data availability on the performance of the suggested framework from data-poor to data-rich situations. Then five deep learning structures (CNN, RNN, GRU, LSTM, and BiLSTM) were trained and tuned by using three different hyperparameter optimization methods. Grid Search provided an extensive exploration of parameter space to obtain solid baseline configurations for the considered neural networks, Random Search allowed efficient sampling of the search space to find high-quality deep learning models with lower computational expenses, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) enabled adaptive optimization of near-optimal solutions via population-based optimization technique. Forecasting models were assessed by means of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics. Technical novelty of the study is related to the consideration of the impact of various hyperparameter optimization approaches on the quality and robustness of predictions provided by several deep learning architectures depending on the degree of historical data availability. Experiment results showed that the CNN tuned with the help of Random Search gave the best forecasting results in case of abundant training data (80/20 split) with RMSE=22.13. In case of scarcity of training samples (20/80 split) CNN tuned by Grid Search and PSO provided stable forecasts with MAPE≈0.077 and RMSE=37.56 with efficient reduction of prediction deviation.
Co-Authors A.N. Afandi Abdullah Iskandar Syah Ach. Syahrudin Fakhri Achmad Afif Irwansyah Achmad Hamdan Achmad Khofiyulloh Achmad Syahrudin Fakhri Achmad Taufiq Ade Siyanti Nurul Hidayah Adiguna, Satria Adim Firmansah Adim Firmansah Adim Firmansah Aditya Wahyu Setiawan Aede Hatib Mustaamal Afandi, Farrel Candra Winata Afif Abdul Hadi Agung Witjoro Agusta Rakhmat Taufani Ahmad Dardiri Ahmad Dhaffa' Nibrosoma Ahmad Dhaffa’ Nibrosoma3 Ahmad Fuadi Ahmad Munjin Nasih Ahmad Taufiq Ahmad Taufiq Aji Prasetya Wibawa Akhmad Afrizal Rizqi Al Ihsan, Rifqi Al Rasyid, Mochammad Syarifudin Alfarid Hendro Yuwono Ali, Haidar Alma Nur Roisatul Masruhah Amin, Muhammad Adib Ananta, Sasmita Bagus Sang Kesuma Andoko Andoko, Andoko Andri Nugroho Andriansyah, Muhammad Rizal Anie Yulistyorini Anik Nur Handayani Annisa Avrilia Annisa Firly Aprilia Putri Annisa Firly Aprilia Putri Arafah Husna Arfienda Miawa Tyassilva Arga Tri Agung Hermawan Aria Wibawa Arie Muazib Arisma Nurul Fauziyah Aryansyah Pratama ASMARITA, YULMAISI Asmarita, Yulmaisi Dwi Avrilia, Annisa Ayu Purwatiningsih Ayu Puwatiningsih Azizatus Zahro Bagaskoro, Muhammad Cahyo Che Ani, Adi Izhar Choirunnisa, Fadhillah Daniel Edo Dekki Widiatmoko Dekki Widiatmoko Didik Dwi Prasetya Diva Ayu Lestari Dodo Irmanto Dwi Mukti Asmoro Dwiwahyono, Irawan Dyah Lestari Dzul Fikri Muhammad Eka Mistakim Erfandy Erfandy Erfandy, Erfandy Erry Asnarindra Evie Dwi Jayanti Faidzin, Ilham Fakhri, Ach. Syahrudin Falah, Moh Zainul Fazi, Muhammad Yusril Fitri FX Yuswantoro Dwi Irawan Gabrielley Ferdhiansyah Riyadi Gunawan, M. Ricko Gwo-Jiun Horng Hadi, Afif Abdul Hadi, Sholihul Handayani , Anik Nur Hari Putranto Harits Ar Rosyid Hasan Firdiansyah, Muhammad Hendra Susanto Herlin Pujiarti Heru Wahyu Herwanto Hikmatul Amri Horng, Gwo Jiun Horng, Gwo-Jiun I Made Wirawan Ihsan Al-Fikri Ihsan, Rifqi Al Ilman Kamil Imam Alfianto Imam Saputra Ira Devi Sara Irham Fadlika Jayanti, Evie Dwi Joko Utomo Joumil Aidil Saifuddin Kaki, Gregorius Paulus Mario Laka Kamil, Ilman Kasiyanto Kasiyanto Kasiyanto Kasiyanto Kasiyanto Kasiyanto Kasiyanto, Kasiyanto Khoiruddin Asfanie Korba, Petr Kornelius Kamargo/Irawan Dwi Wahyono Kornelius Kamargo Kusubakti Andajani Kusumaningrum, Irma Kartika Kusumawardana, Arya Laili, Mery Nur Langlang Gumilar Larasati, Jade Rosida Lilis Widayanti M Ibrahim Ashari M Rafli Dwi Suryanto M Rifa’i M Rifa’i M Rodhi Faiz M Rodhi Faiz M. Alfian Mizar M. Cahyo Bagaskoro M. Rodhi Faiz M. Rodhi Faiz, M. Rodhi Markus Diantoro Maslamah, Siti Mazarina Devi Mistakim, Eka Moh Zainul Falah Moh. Zainul Falah Mohamad Rodhi Faiz Mohammad Musthofa Al Ansyorie Mohammad Rodhi Faiz Mokh Sholihul Hadi MOKH. SHLIHUL HADI Mokh. Solikhul Hadia Muchamad Wahyu Prasetyo Muchamad Wahyu Prasetyo Muchamad Wahyu Prasetyo Mudakir, Mudakir Muhammad Adib Amin Muhammad Afnan Habibi Muhammad Aris Ichwanto MUHAMMAD CAHYO BAGASKORO Muhammad Cahyo Bagaskoro Muhammad Cahyo bagaskoro muhammad cahyo bagaskoro Muhammad Cahyo Bagaskoro Muhammad Hafiizh Muhammad Jazuli Shubhi Muhammad Jazuli Shubhi Muhammad Raihan Fitriyandi Muhammad Rizal Andriansyah Muhammad Rodhi Faiz Muhammad Yazid Muharnis Muharnis, Muharnis Muhiban Syabani Muhiban Syabani Muladi Nadea Catur Nurmayanti Nadhira, Anissa Chairani Alfin Nadiya Miftachul Chusna Nafi Isbadrianingtyas Naizatul Zainul Rofiqi Najmi, M. Ikhwan Nandang Mufti Nathaniela Azaria Ashari Nibrosoma, Ahmad Dhaffa Nikmah, Revalina Nazilatun Nofa Mardianto Nor Julia Mohd Nordin Nor Shahida Hasan Norzanah Rosmin Norzanah Rosmin Norzanah Rosmin Nugraha, Agil Zaidan Nur Shasmitta Zaen Nurul Putri Wulandari Omar, Saodah Patrya, Sukma Pramono Pramono Pratama, Aryansyah PRIA EKA RESWANA Puger Homggowiyono Purnomo, Purnomo Purwatiningsih, Ayu Quota Sias Raffi Taufik Gushardana Rafli Amirul Husain Rafli Amirul Husain Rahmadhani, Nur Aini Syafrina Rahman, Rizal Akbarudin Ramadhani, I Gusti Ayu Isnaini Fatha Ridho Riski Hadi Rifqi Al Ihsan Rini Nur Hasanah Riski, Akhmad Afrizal Riya Mustikasari Rodhi Faiz Ronny Ardiansah Roshifah Dinilqoyyimah Rosmin, Norzanah Rui Alfadel Saputra Salwa, Nur Fadhila Rasyida Sandriana Parantean Saodah Omar Saodah Omar Saodah Omar Saparullah Saparullah SASMITA BAGUS SANG KESUMA ANANTA Satia Nur Maharani Satria Adiguna Satrio, Yogi Dwi Setiawan, Aditya Wahyu Setiawan, Toni Putra Agus Sevilla, Felix Rafael Segundo Sholihul Hadi Sias, Quota Alief Siti Aisyah Siti Maherah Husin Siti Sendari Siti Zubaidah Siti Zubaidah Siti Zumaroh Slamet Wibawanto Soenar Soekopitojo Soraya Norma Mustika Suhiro Wongso Susilo Suhiro Wongso Susilo Sujito - Sujito . Sujito Sujito Sujito Sujito Sukmawan, Bijak Akbar Sulistyo, Danang Arbian Sunaryono Sunaryono Sunaryono Sunaryono Sunaryono, Sunaryono Suprayitno Suprayitno Suryani, Ani Wilujeng Susilo, Suhiro Wongso Syaad Patmanthara Syabani, Muhiban Syamsul Arifin Tamara Fitri Andansari Titi Mutiara Kiranawati Tiwi Ananda Toni Putra Agus Setiawan Tri Kuncoro Triyanna Widiyaningtyas Viky Yosia Priambodo Viky Yosia Priambodo, Vivi Aida Fitria Wibawa, Aji Presetya Wibowo, Kusmayanto Hadi Widiatmoko, Dekki Wisnu Wahyu Nugroho Yazid, Muhammad Yogi Sastra Surya Yuli Agustina, Yuli Yuliana, Erma Surya Yuni Rahmawati Yusril Al Fath Zaeni, Ilham Ari Elbaith Zaeni, lham Ari Elbaith Zory Satrio Nugroho Zulkifli, Shamsul Aizam