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Bagus Sartono
Departmen Statistika Institut Pertanian Bogor Gedung IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti Wing 22 Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor (16680) Indonesia Phone: +62-811-118-508
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Predicting Potential Co-Authorship Using Random Forest: Case of Scientific Publications in Indonesian Institute of Sciences Rizka Rahmaida; Asep Saefuddin; Bagus Sartono
STI Policy and Management Journal Vol 4, No 2 (2019): STI Policy and Management
Publisher : Center for Science and Technology Development Studies, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1248.561 KB) | DOI: 10.14203/STIPM.2019.170

Abstract

Research collaboration is one of the strength in research management due to its advantages in quantity and quality of the research. Co-authorship network is one of the proxies to evaluate the emerging research collaborations. Co-authorship that happens for the first time among a pair of author plays an important role as the key of success for their co-authorship in the future. Therefore, the research aims to build a model predicting new co-authorship as potential co-authorship. This research used scientific articles in Indonesian biodiversity research published in Scopus during 2006-2015. New co-authorship of between 4,628 pair of authors were analyzed in terms of their similarity in co-authorship network, research interest, and community to predict whether a pair of author will have a new co-authorship in future. Random forest classifier was used to build the model after applying 10-fold cross validation in various parameter and random undersampling technique as preprocessing procedures. The result shows that the similarity in network, community network, and research interest and becomes good features to predict the potential co-authorship among a pair of author. Furthermore, paired authors that predicted to be co-authored and involving authors from Indonesian Institute of Sciences are identified as the potential patners recommended for development of research teams.
Kajian Scientometrics: Analisis Jaringan Sosial pada Publikasi Internasional Indonesia Bidang Kimia Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh; Muhammad Nur Aidi; Bagus Sartono
STI Policy and Management Journal Vol 13, No 1 (2015): Warta KIML (Journal of S&T Policy and R&D Management)
Publisher : Center for Science and Technology Development Studies, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (408.955 KB) | DOI: 10.14203/STIPM.2015.40

Abstract

The importance of the use of more precise methods in the management of R & D budget to encourage the development of a variety of methods based on the data in the R&D policymaking process. Scientometrics is one area of science that can be used in the management of R&D efforts in a more effective and efficient ways. Asociated with limited budgets and goals that must be achieved in the development of science and technology, the budget must be allocated to give a great impact on the development of Indonesia. Data of Indonesian international publications in Chemistry area of science was used in this study to assess the social network among authors of scientific paper in Indonesia. The objectives of this study are to provide a new method of the R&D budgd alocation process better in the future and provide policy recommendations related to the condition of social networks that has been studied. Networks among Indonesian authors in the internasional publication, especially in Chemistry area are still very fragmented, very few relationships that are formed between the authors. In addition the synergy between academia-industry-government is still less visible. Relationships between authors from different institutions are also still very little, the majority of authors writing with institution’s colleagues.Therefore, this study provides some policy recommendations, namely: i) providing wide space for academicians in Indonesia, both in university and in government R & D institutions and NGOs to collaborate; ii) the government is expected to be more proactive in communicating with the relevant academic research needs requiring for the livelihood of the people in the future; iii) the existence of incentives and rewards for the academia and the private sector to collaborate and produce a useful research; iv) the government provide greater opportunities for researchers in the private sector to collaborate with academician at universities and R&D institutions, both in the implementation of research, research funding, research infrastructure and the use of other research activities.
KOMPETISI ANTAR TERMINAL PETI KEMAS STUDI KASUS PELABUHAN TANJUNG PRIOK Toufiq Al Amin; Luky Adrianto; Bagus Sartono; Deni Achmad Soeboer
ALBACORE Jurnal Penelitian Perikanan Laut Vol. 2 No. 1 (2018): Albacore
Publisher : Departemen PSP IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (165.299 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/core.2.1.43-56

Abstract

Artikel ini menginvestigasi kompetisi antar terminal peti kemas di Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok. Tujuan utama artikel ini adalah untuk dapat melihat kondisi persaingan antar terminal peti kemas dan perilaku terminal peti kemas dan perusahaan pelayaran dalam pengambilan keputusan penentuan terminal. Analisa empirik digunakan terhadap hasil survey kuisioner kepada perusahaan pelayaran berdasarkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penentuan pilihan penggunaan jasa terminal peti kemas. Pengujian ANOVA digunakan untuk menguji penilaian yang diberikan oleh responden, diasumsikan efisiensi waktu, kehandalan layanan, administrasi, operasional dan komersil merupakan kategori faktor-faktor yang membentuk penilaian performa terminal peti kemas, sedangkan perbandingan penilaian responden terhadap satu terminal peti kemas dengan terminal peti kemas yang lain dilakukan dengan pengujian Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Selanjutnya, analisa biaya digunakan untuk mendapatkan model dasar dari pemilihan terminal peti kemas oleh perusahaan pelayaran di Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok melalui pemodelan matematis yang terdiri dari 2 komponen utama, yaitu waktu pelayanan dan  performa terminal/layanan tambahan terminal. Secara keseluruhan, artikel ini dapat membantu analisis lanjutan tentang peningkatan kemampuan terminal peti kemas dan memungkinkan terminal untuk mengetahui dan menyeimbangkan tingkat permintaan dan kapasitasnya sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyusun strategi jangka panjang. Artikel ini juga dapat memberikan pengetahuan yang lebih baik terhadap kriteria perusahaan pelayaran saat memilih terminal peti kemas.Kata kunci: Kompetisi antar terminal peti kemas, Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, teori permainan non kooperatif, kapasitas terminal peti kemas, tarif terminal peti kemas.
PERAMALAN INDEKS TARIF ANGKUTAN PELAYARAN CURAH KERING Anton Ferdiansyah; Luky Adrianto; Bagus Sartono; Deni Achmad Soeboer
ALBACORE Jurnal Penelitian Perikanan Laut Vol. 2 No. 1 (2018): Albacore
Publisher : Departemen PSP IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (363.105 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/core.2.1.93-105

Abstract

Volatilitas dan risiko tinggi merupakan ciri khas dari pasar tarif pelayaran curah kering. Ditenggarai hal ini dikarenakan banyaknya ketidakpastian yang mempengaruhinya, mulai dari kondisi ekonomi dunia, guncangan politik, kemajuan teknologi, hingga sensitivitas terhadap sentimen pasar. Banyak akademisi yang memberikan perhatian dan berusaha untuk memahami fenomena ini. Beberapa kajian telah ditulis dan salah satunya adalah mengenai hubungan peramalan sebagai alat yang bisa mengurangi risiko ketidakpastian. Oleh karena itu makalah ini mencoba untuk meramalkan indeks tarif angkutan pelayaran curah kering (BDI) dengan menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrik berdasarkan data pada pasar tarif angkutan curah kering selama periode 1991 sampai 2016.  Penelitian ini diawali dengan menjelaskan karakteristik dan gambaran umum dari pasar tarif curah kering dan faktor penentu yang mempengaruhi permintaan dan penawaran pasar juga diidentifikasi dan dianalisa. Variabel yang signifikan diperoleh melalui tinjauan literatur, dan juga beberapa model ekonomi dari penelitian terdahulu juga dipelajari, sehingga berdasarkan pada hal-hal tersebut pondasi dari permodelan dapat dilakukan. Indikator ekonomi yang ditunjukkan oleh GDP dunia digunakan untuk memprediksi volume perdagangan curah kering melalui laut, bersama rerata jarak, kedua variabel tersebut terpilih sebagai faktor penentu dari dari sisi permintaan. Sementara armada kapal curah kering dan harga bahan bakar dijadikan faktor penentu dari sisi penawaran. Regresi Linier dipergunakan untuk membuat model ekonometrik guna meramalkan tingkat harga di pasar tarif ke depannya. Dari peramalan menunjukkan jika pertumbuhan armada kapal tetap mengikuti tren yang ada, maka indeks tarif angkutan curah kering akan sulit naik dan kembali ke titik normalnya.Kata kunci: Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Model Ekonometrik, Pasar Tarif Angkutan Curah Kering, Peramalan tarif angkutan pelayaran, dan Permintaan Penawaran Pelayaran.
Proposing a Zakat Empowerment Program Using IDZ: Case from Cemplang Village, Bogor, Indonesia Khairunnajah Khairunnajah; Irfan Syauqi Beik; Bagus Sartono
International Journal of Zakat Vol 4 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Center of Strategic Studies (PUSKAS) BAZNAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (252.232 KB) | DOI: 10.37706/ijaz.v4i1.139

Abstract

Zakat has enormous potential for the development of a nation. Recently, The Ministry of Village, Development of Disadvantaged Areas and Transmigration targets to eradicate 5000 poor villages. However, the current number of underdeveloped villages is still high. For this, the empowerment program of BAZNAS can integrate with the local government to participate in the development of backward regions. Zakat Community Development is one of BAZNAS subsidiary aiming at community development. This study engages the index of zakat village (IDZ) to investigate the feasibility of Cemplang village in getting assisted by BAZNAS empowerment programs. This study finds that the Village is considered to get supported by zakat funds. Keywords: zakat, community development, empowerment, IDZ
The Spatial Effect of Agricultural Sector Growth in West Java: A Spatial Approach to Panel Data Adi Hadianto; Harianto Harianto; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; Bagus Sartono
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 27 No. 3 (2022): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18343/jipi.27.3.332

Abstract

The agricultural sector is strategic and the third-largest contributor to the GRDP of West Java Province, but its growth has slowed during the 2016–2019 period. The slow growth rate can be caused by the determinants of the growth of the agricultural sector itself and is very likely to be affected by the spatial interaction between regions in the province. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial effect between regions on the growth of the agricultural sector in West Java and identify the factors that influence the growth of the agricultural sector within the province by using spatial analysis of panel data. The results reveal that the appropriate model is a fixed effect spatial error model, which shows an effect of spatial interaction between regions on the growth of the agricultural sector in West Java Province. The factors that affect the growth of the agricultural sector are agricultural credit, agricultural road infrastructure, and diversification of economic activities. Keywords: agricultural sector growth, spatial autoregressive, spatial error model, spatial panel data
EXTRA TREES METHOD FOR STOCK PRICE FORECASTING WITH ROLLING ORIGIN ACCURACY EVALUATION Dani Al Mahkya; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Bagus Sartono
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.36-47

Abstract

Stock is an investment instrument that has risk in its management. One effort to minimize this risk is to model and make further forecasts of stock price movements. Time series data forecasting with autoregressive models is often found in several cases with the most popular approach being the ARIMA model. The tree-based method is one of the algorithms that can be used to forecast both in classification and regression. One ensemble approach to tree-based methods is Extra Trees. This study aims to forecast using the Extra Trees algorithm by evaluating forecasting accuracy with Rolling Forecast Origin on BRMS stock price data. Based on the results obtained, it is known that Extra Trees produces a fairly good accuracy for forecasting up to 6 days after training data with a MAPE of less than 0.1%.
Regional Tourism Development in Nusa Tenggara Barat: Maximizing Local Economic Development Deri Siswara; Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan; Anwar Fitrianto; Bagus Sartono; Sachnaz Desta Oktarina
EcceS (Economics, Social, and Development Studies) Vol 9 No 2 (2022): December
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam UIN Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/ecc.v9i2.32194

Abstract

The diversity of each region causes different potentials in each region. The potential of the village can map how rich the area is, the advantages of the area, and the population and welfare. Tourism is one of them; this sector is potential for the area because it can lift its economy if it is adequately managed. Good management is born from the policies/regulations of the local government. Nusa Tenggara Barat is a province with many tourist attractions. However, from an economic and socio-cultural perspective, Nusa Tenggara Barat has yet to be able to compete with other major provinces in Indonesia, such as the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY). The 2018 Village Potential Data by BPS can assist the government in compiling efforts for the village's progress. In the process of data processing, especially big data, in-depth exploration is needed to produce meaningful insight. Clustering is one of the exploration techniques that can map areas in Nusa Tenggara Barat based on the tourism potential in each village. K-Prototypes are used in cases with mixed variables (numeric and categorical). Determination of the best number of clusters is using the silhouette index. It produced 5 clusters with their respective diversity. There are five clusters in Nusa Tenggara Barat by the villages based on tourism aspects and factors that support tourism. Cluster 3 is an ideal cluster, meaning tourism development in that cluster is complete. Cluster 5 has considerable potential in tourism because the supporting factors are analytically good. There are villages dispersed across Sumbawa Barat, Sumbawa, Lombok Tengah, Lombok Barat, Dompu, and Bima that are part of cluster 1. In Sumbawa Barat and Lombok Tengah, cluster 1 predominates numbers. The settlements in cluster 2 are then more prevalent in Sumbawa and Bima. Furthermore, Sumbawa, Dompu, and Bima have the highest concentrations of cluster 4. Unlike clusters 3 and 5, special attention should be paid to clusters 1, 2, and 4 in tourism development. Implications of this research are the government could take toward each cluster to increase the GDP-oriented service product, namely tourism; whether it is an improvement or reconstruction, clustering analysis works its role in learning the data to make the policy more focused.
Analysis of the Effectiveness of Flash Floods Disaster Mitigation in Java Island Alfa Nugraha Pradana; Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina; Anwar Fitrianto; Bagus Sartono; Sachnaz Desta Oktarina
Sriwijaya Journal of Environment Vol 7, No 2 (2022): ENVIRONMENTAL CARE AND PROTECTION
Publisher : Program Pascasarjana Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22135/sje.2022.7.2.91-99

Abstract

Flash flood is one of the natural disasters that currently happens a lot in Indonesia. Java Island is one of the largest archipelagoes in Indonesia and has the highest incidence of flash floods. Several efforts were conducted to anticipate and mitigate flash floods in Java Island, including an early warning system, preparing safety equipment, building evacuation route signs, and monitoring watersheds. Through the dataset of Village Potential 2018, this study aims to explore the effectiveness of flash flood mitigation in Java Island using the R programming language. The stages of research carried out in this study are data preprocessing, including selecting, recoding the variables, exploratory univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data analysis. The results showed that the fatalities of flash floods often occurred in areas with plains surface, especially in West Java and East Java, followed by the topography of Central Java on the hills and the valleys in Banten. In addition, the most effective disaster mitigation established in Java Island is safety equipment and the construction of evacuation route signs compared to other disaster anticipation efforts.
Identifying Characteristics of Households Recipient of the Government’s Social Protection Program Nofrida Elly Zendrato; Bagus Sartono; Utami Dyah Syafitri
Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining Vol 5, No 1 (2022): March 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/ijaidm.v5i1.18579

Abstract

According to Statistics Indonesia, the number of poor people increased by 1,12 million people in March 2020. In March 2021, the percentage of poor people increased by 0,36 points compared to March 2020. The percentage of poor people in Banten Province has increased in the last three years (2019-2021). One way to reduce poverty by the government is to increase social protection programs. The characteristics of households receiving social protection programs were identified by modeling the classification of households using the random forest technique, obtaining important variables using the permutation feature importance and Shapley additive explanations interpretation techniques, and analyzing the most important variables from the two interpretations methods. Handling the imbalance data on the response variables using SMOTE technique and evaluating the classification model obtained an AUC value of 0,718. The important variables were selected from the permutation feature importance and Shapley additive explanation methods based on a consistent ranking at the top. Shapley’s additive explanation was more consistent than permutation feature importance. Six important, namely capita expenditure, education of the head of household, age of head of household, source of drinking water, floor area, and the number of household members.
Co-Authors -, Salsabila Aam Alamudi Abdul Aziz Nurussadad Achmad Fauzan Achsani, Noer Azham Adi Hadianto Adinna Astrianti Afendi, Farit M Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus M. Sholeh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Agwil, Winalia Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Akhilla, Kharismatul Zaenab Alfa Nugraha Pradana ALFIAN FUTUHUL HADI Alifviansyah, Kevin Alona Dwinata Alwinie, Ade Agusti Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Amin, Toufiq Al Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anang Kurnia Andi Susanto Andrie Agustino Anggraeni, Kartika Novira Anggraini Sukmawati Ani Safitri Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisa Permata Sari, Annisa Permata Annissa Nur Fitria Fathina Anton Ferdiansyah Anwar Fajar Rizki Ardhani, Rizky Ardiansyah, Muhlis Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arief Gusnanto Aris Yaman Aris Yaman Aristawidya, Rafika Aruddy Aruddy Asep Rusyana ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asfar Asrirawan, Asrirawan Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Auzi Asfarian Azlam Nas Bagus Randhyartha Gumilar Bariq, Muhammad Shidqi Abdul Barokaturrizkia Ameliani Bayu Indrayana Bayu Pranata, Bayu Bayu Suseno Beny Mulyana Sukandar Billy Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Budi Susetyo Bukhari, Ari Shobri Cahya, Septa Dwi Carlya Agmis Aimandiga Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cintari, Nanda Putri Citra, Reza Felix Dani Al Mahkya Darwis Darwis Dede Dirgahayu Dede Dirgahayu Defri Ramadhan Ismana Deiby T Salaki Deni Achmad Soeboer Deri Siswara Dessy Rotua Natalina Siahaan Dewi Margareth Lumbantoruan Dhanu Dian Ayuningtyas Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dito, Gerry Alfa Dwi Agustin Nuriani Sirodj Dwi Fitrianti Dwi Wahyu Triscowati Eko Ruddy Cahyadi Embay Rohaeti Erfiani Erfiani Erliza Noor Erwan Setiawan, Erwan Etis Sunandi EVI RAMADHANI EVITA PURNANINGRUM Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhila Hijryani FAHREZAL ZUBEDI Fany Apriliani Faqih Udin dan Jono M. Munandar Meivita Amelia Farit M. Afendi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Ferdiansyah, Anton Ferdiansyah, Anton Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Frisca Rizki Ananda Galih Hedy Saputra Gerry Alfa Dito Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Ginting, Victor Gumilar, Bagus Randhyartha Gustara, Muhammad Hanum Rachmawati Nur Hardiana Widyastuti Hari Wijayanto Hari Yanni, Meri Harianto Harianto Hartoyo Hartoyo Hartoyo Hazan Azhari Zainuddin Hendri Wijaya Hendria, Muhammad Herlin Fransiska Herlina Herlina Hidayat, Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat, Muhammad Hilman Dwi Anggana I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Idqan Fahmi Ilma, Hafizah Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Iman, Mutiara Nurul INA YATUL ULYA Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Intan Arassah, Fradha Irene Muflikh Nadhiroh Irfan Syauqi Beik Ismah, Ismah Ita Wulandari Itasia Dina Sulvianti Iwan Kurniawan Jaelani, Raditya Kamila, Sabrina Adnin Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairunnajah Khairunnajah Khairunnisa, Adlina Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kudang Boro Seminar Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni La Surimi, La Laode Ahmad Sabil Leni Anggraini Susanti Lilik Noor Yuliati Linda Karlina Sari Luky Adrianto Lukytawati Anggraeni M. Yunus Magfirrah, Indah Matualage, Dariani Megawati - Megawati Simanjuntak Meylisah, Eni Mohamad Agus Setiawan Muhammad Hendria Muhammad Ilham Abidin Muhammad Irfan Hanifiandi Kurnia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Subianto Muhammad Syafiq Muhammad Yusran Mukhamad Najib Murpraptomo, Saka Haditya Musthafa, Hafiz Syaikhul MY, Hadyanti Utami Nofrida Elly Zendrato Novian Tamara Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aulia NUR HASANAH NURADILLA, SITI Nurfadilah, Khalilah Oktaviani, Rina Pardomuan Robinson Sihombing Parwati Sofan, Parwati Pika Silvianti Popong Nurhayati Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Purnaningrum, Evita Purwanto, Arie Puspanegara, Ladia Puspita, Novi Qalbi, Asyifah Rachma Fitriati Rahardi, Naufal Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Rahma Dany Asyifa Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmatulloh, Febriandi Rais Rere Kautsar Rhendy K P Widiyanto Riantika, Ines Rina Oktaviani Rini, Dyah Setyo Riska Yulianti, Riska Riza Indriani Rakhmalia Rizal Bakri Rizka Rahmaida Rizqi, Tasya Anisah ROCHYATI ROCHYATI Roy Sembel Sachnaz Desta Oktarina salsa bila Saptowulan Sarah Putri Sari, Jefita Resti Sentana Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Seta Baehera Setiadi Djohar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Sholeh, Agus M. Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siskarossa Ika Oktora Sofia, Ayu Sri Amaliya Suantari, Ni Gusti Ayu Putu Puteri Suhaeni, Cici Sukarna Sukarna Suprayogi, Muhammad Azis Susanto, Andi Suseno Bayu Syam, Ummul Auliyah Syarip, Dodi Irawan Totong Martono Toufiq Al Amin Toufiq Al Amin Triscowati, Dwi Wahyu Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan Ujang Sumarwan Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Valentika, Nina Vera Maya Santi Wahida Ainun Mumtaza Wahyudi Setyo Wahyuni, Silvia Tri Waliulu, Megawati Zein Wawan Saputra Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yenni Angraini Yoga Primanda Yopi Ariesia Ulfa Yudhianto, Rachmat Bintang Yuliani, Leny Zahra, Latifah Zaima Nurrusydah