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All Journal ACTA VETERINARIA INDONESIANA PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia Cakrawala Pendidikan Seminar Nasional Aplikasi Teknologi Informasi (SNATI) Media Statistika Gorga : Jurnal Seni Rupa Widyanuklida Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang BAHAS Abdimas Jurnal Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Teknologi Pertanian Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan BIOEDUKASI Jukung (Jurnal Teknik Lingkungan) Meditory : The Journal of Medical Laboratory WAKTU: Jurnal Teknik UNIPA Seminar Nasional Lahan Suboptimal Academy of Education Journal Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Fisika Bina Gogik: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar Jurnal Teras Fisika : Teori, Modeling, dan Aplikasi Fisika Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia (JPMI) INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF URBAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY Jurnal Riset Rumpun Seni, Desain dan Media (JURRSENDEM) Jurnal Natural JOURNAL OF WETLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Jurnal Nusantara Berbakti The International Journal of Tropical Veterinary and Biomedical Research Depik Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Perairan, Pesisir dan Perikanan Jurnal Abdimas Indonesia Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Aspirasi : Publikasi Hasil Pengabdian dan Kegiatan Masyarakat Jurnal Akademik Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Intelek Dan Cendikiawan Nusantara Depik Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Perairan, Pesisir, dan Perikanan Jurnal Pendidikan Anak Jurnal Medika Veterinaria EKOBIS ABDIMAS : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Green Inflation: International Journal of Management And Strategic Business Leadership Misterius: Publikasi Ilmu Seni dan Desain Komunikasi Visual Realisasi: Ilmu Pendidikan, Seni Rupa dan Desain Imajinasi: Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan, Seni, dan Teknologi Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan Journal of Engineering, Electrical and Informatics

Sugito Sugito

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PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INTEGRATED GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY (IGARCH) (Studi Kasus pada Return Kurs Rupiah terhadap Dollar Australia) Dian Febriana; Tarno Tarno; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Foreign exchange trading can be an alternative investment due to the rapid movement of the exchange rate and its liquid characteristic. Measurement of risk is important because investment is related to substantial funds. One of the popular methods of risk measurement is Value at Risk (VaR) method. In financial time series, data usually have a variance that is not constant (heteroscedastisity). To overcome these problems, ARCH and GARCH models are used. One type of ARCH / GARCH namely Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (IGARCH). The purpose of this study is modeling the IGARCH volatility and to calculate VaR based on the estimate volatility of the exchange rate return data rupiah against the Australian dollar. This study use daily selling rate data of the rupiah against the Australian dollar from 1 June 2012 until February 28, 2014. The best IGARCH model used for forecasting volatility of exchange rate return data Rupiah against the Australian dollar is the ARIMA model ([10], 0, [19]) IGARCH (1,1) because it has the smallest AIC value. The estimation volatility forecasting results obtained from the IGARCH (1,1) is used to calculate the value at risk on 5 periods ahead with one day holding period and a confidence level of 95%. Value at Risk to be around 0.95% to 1.07% with the highest VaR on 3rd March 2014 and the lowest VaR on 7th March 2014. Keywords : Exchange rate, Volatility, Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (IGARCH), Value at Risk (VaR)

ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN PELAYANAN NASABAH BANK X KANTOR WILAYAH SEMARANG Prizka Rismawati Arum; Sugito Sugito; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Waiting is very boring for many people because it will only waste a lot of their time. This situation is common happen in a queue, for example customers who will conduct the transaction in the bank. Bank X Semarang Regional Office is the largest branch of Bank X is in Semarang is also not free from this problem. Therefore, the queuing model search is very important in order to improve the quality of service to customers / clients. Based on the analysis of data in the Customer Service and Teller obtained the appropriate queuing models which, for Customer Service and Public Teller queuing model is (M / M / 6): (GD / ∞ / ∞) queuing model for the Teller Express is (M / M / 2): (GD / ∞ / ∞) and for Special Teller model of the queue is (M / G / 1): (GD / ∞ / ∞). Based on the calculations and analyzes that have been done, it can be concluded that the customer service system to the Customer Service and teller at Bank X Semarang Regional Office has been good. Keywords: Queue, Queuing System Model, Bank, Customer Service, Teller.

PENENTUAN BOBOT PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL DENGAN METODE RESAMPLED EFFICIENT FRONTIER UNTUK PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK PADA DATA BERDISTRIBUSI NORMAL Esti Pratiwi; Abdul Hoyyi; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The investors have a goal of getting return when they invest their wealth, but on the other hand they should bear the risk that might arise from their investment. There are three categories of investors based on their preferences toward risk that is risk averter, moderate risk and risk taker. To establish a portfolio that is able to incorporate investor preferences is used Resampled Efficient Frontier Method. Resampled Efficient Frontier Method is a development of the Mean Variance Efficient Portfolios Method, which used Monte Carlo simulation to obtain more estimated of parameter inputs. Based on the efficient portfolios of Resampled Efficient Frontier along the efficient frontier with 51 efficient points, taken optimal portfolio for each investor type. Optimal portfolio for risk averter, moderate risk and risk taker respectively is an efficient portfolio on the first point, 26th point, and 51st point. To describe the loss of the optimal portfolio is used Value at Risk. VaR is calculated based on monthly return from BBCA, LPKR, PGAS and SMGR during January 2008 until December 2013. Estimated VaR on 95% confidence level during 20 days holding period and the amount of investment allocation Rp 100,000,000.00 from the optimal portfolio for risk averter, moderate risk and risk taker respectively is Rp 50,706,000.00, Rp 54,618,000.00 and Rp 64,522,000.00

PENENTUAN MODEL ANTRIAN DAN PENGUKURAN KINERJA PELAYANAN PLASA TELKOM PAHLAWAN SEMARANG Ilham Indra Bakti Al-Irsyad; Sugito Sugito; Hasbi Yasin
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Plasa Telkom Pahlawan is a place of ministry-owned PT Telkom provided to serve customers of Telkom. To serve its customers, Plasa Telkom Pahlawan operates several kind of services, they are Customer Service, Cashier, Quick Service, Sales and in November 2014 operated new kind of service, it was Flexi Upgrade. As a provider of facility services, the problem of queues is a problem that is absolutely the case and must be considered. Queue situation occurs because the number of customers at a facility of service exceed the capacity available to perform such services. At Plasa Telkom Pahlawan queuing occurs in five different kinds of services. The best queueing models in Customer Service is (M/G/6):(GD:∞:∞) based on simulation level of aspiration, while the best model of Cashier and Quick Service are (M/M/2):(GD:∞:∞), for Sales is (M/M/1):(GD:∞:∞). Especially for Flexi Upgrade, the best model based on simulation level of aspiration is (G/G/6):(GD:∞:∞). From the analyzed model can be concluded that the queueing system available in Plasa Telkom Pahlawan Service is optimal.Keywords : Queuing system, Plasa Telkom Pahlawan, Customer Service, Cashier, Quick Service, Sales, Flexi Upgrade.

PENENTUAN MODEL DAN PENGUKURAN KINERJA SISTEM PELAYANAN PT. BANK NEGARA INDONESIA (PERSERO) Tbk. KANTOR LAYANAN TEMBALANG Masfuhurrizqi Iman; Sugito Sugito; Dwi Ispriyanti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Tembalang Services Office is a provider of service facilities engaged in the financial sector. As a service facilities provider, queue problem is a problem that occurs absolute and must be considered. The queuing situation occurs because the number of customers in a service facility that exceeds the capacity available to perform such services. At PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Tembalang Services Office, the queue occurs both at the Teller and Customer Service. After analysis, the best model of a queuing system at the Teller is (M/M/3):(GD:∞:∞), while the best model of queuing system in the Customer Service section is (M/M/2):(GD:∞:∞). The model can be concluded that the queue system available in PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Tembalang Services office is optimal. Keywords : PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Tembalang Services Office, queuing system, Teller, Customer Service

PEMODELAN RETURN SAHAM PERBANKAN MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY (EGARCH) Noveda Mulya Wibowo; Sugito Sugito; Agus Rusgiyono
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 1 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

ARIMA model is basically one of the models that can be applied in the time series data. In this ARIMA model, there is an assumption that the error variance of this model is constant. The price of stocks of the time series financial data, especially return has the trend to change quickly from time to time and it is actually fluctuative, so its error variance is inconstant or in another word, it calls as heteroscedasticity. To overcome this problem, it can be used the model of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) or Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticiy (GARCH). Furthermore, the financial data commonly has the different effect between the value of positive error and negative error toward the volatility data that is known as asymmetric effect. Indeed, one of the models used in this research, to overcome the problem of either heteroscedasticity or asymmetric effect toward the return of the close-stocks price of Banking daily is GARCH of asymmetric model that is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). The data of this research is the return data of the close-stocks price of Banking in November 1st 2013 to August 24th 2016. From the result of this analysis, it is gained several models of EGARCH. ARIMA model ([2,4],0,[2,4])-EGARCH (1,1) is such a best model for it has the lowest AIC value than any other models.Keywords: Return, Heteroscedasticity, Asymmetric effect, ARCH/GARCH, EGARCH.

ANALISIS PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO PADA PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI LQ45 DENGAN PENDEKATAN METODE MARKOWITZ MENGGUNAKAN GUI MATLAB Titin Afriana; Tarno Tarno; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 2 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Portfolio is one of ways in investment activity that undertaken by more than one asset with intent to determining the amount of proportion of investment that to be made in a certain period of time. To determine optimal portofolio, one of analysis model which can be played is Markowitz. Markowitz exressed through diversification concept (with making of the optimal stock of portfolio), investor can maximize the expected income from investments with specific risk level or seeking to minimize risk to target certain profit level. To simplify the calculation of the portfolio for public, there is an application that made by using GUI in Matlab. Matlab (Matrix Laboratory) is an interactive programming system with basic elements of array database which dimensions do not need to be stated in a particular way, while the GUI is the submenu of Matlab. Generally, Matlab GUI is more easily learned and used because it worked without need to know the commandments and how the command works. The data used in this study consists of five types of assets in the LQ45 group, there are BBNI, PWON, PTBA, INCO, dan KLBF. In determining the portfolio proportion used trial and error method and Lagrange method. Based on the portfolio proportion of both methods obtained the optimal portfolio is almost the same. Keywords: GUI Matlab, LQ45, Portfolio, Markowitz, Trial and Error, Lagrange

PERBANDINGAN MODEL PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN METODE REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA DAN METODE GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION Kelik Isbiyantoro; Yuciana Wilandari; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

One of the equipments to see the success of the Government in economics field is the economic growth. To see the economic growth of a region, can be seen from the growth of region Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All this time, the economic growth is often modeled by multiple linear regression, whereas the model describes the general conditions. In fact, there are differences such as geographical factor, socio-cultural circumstance, and the other matters. This allows the appearance of spatial heterogenity in the regression parameters, to overcomes it, the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression is developed into Georaphically Weighted Regression (GWR). This model is a local linear regression model that generates local estimator model parameters for each point or location where the data is collected. This research discusses the factors that effect the economic growth in Central Java. The model suitability testing result shows that there is no differences in multiple linear regression model and GWR model toward the economic growth in Central Java. Results of the research shows there are three variables that have effect, they are: Total Labor Force, Major MSEs, and the number of markets. The three variables have the same effect in each county / city.

ANALISIS ANTRIAN RAWAT JALAN POLIKLINIK LANTAI 1, LANTAI 3 DAN PENDAFTARAN RSUP Dr. KARIADI SEMARANG Vita Dwi Rachmawati; Sugito Sugito; Hasbi Yasin
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 2, No 4 (2013): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Hospital is an organization social and health that provides complete (comprehensive), the healing of disease (curative) and disease prevention (preventive) to the public. Hospital quality can be know from the professionality hospital personnel, efficiency, and effectiveness of services.The duration of registration procedure and service for doctor consultation can affect patient satisfaction of Outpatient Hospital Dr. Kariadi Semarang in obtaining health care. Therefore, it’s necessary queuing models that suitable. so as to obtainable an effective service, balance and efficient which can reduce the long queues and long waiting time. From the analysis, obtainable queuing models at the registration that is (M/M/8):(GD/∞/∞) with the counter number 8 server. In the vct-cst polyclinic and child development polyclinic the model is (M/M/1):(GD/∞/∞) with the number of server 1 doctor while for the nervers polclinic, child health, internal disease, gynecologic and obstetrics, cdc, general surgery, hemodialysis and kb, fertility and the test tube babies that is (M/M/c): (GD/∞/∞) with the number of servers depending on each clinic.

PEMODELAN PROPORSI PENDUDUK MISKIN KABUPATEN DAN KOTA DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN GEOGRAPHICALLY AND TEMPORALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION Khusnul Yeni Widiyanti; Hasbi Yasin; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Regression analysis is a statistical analysis that aims to quantify the effect of predictor variables on the response variable. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a local form of regression and a statistical method used to analyze spatial data. Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) is the development of GWR models to handle data that is not stationary both in terms of spatial and temporal simultaneously. In obtaining estimates of parameters of the GTWR model can be used Weighted Least Square method (WLS). Selection of the optimum bandwidth used method of Cross Validation (CV). Conformance testing global regression and GTWR models approximated by the distribution of F, whereas the partial testing of the model parameters using the t distribution. Application GTWR models at the level of poverty in Central Java province in 2008 to 2012 showed GTWR models differ significantly from the global regression model. Based on R2 and Mean Squared Error (MSE) value between the global regression model and GTWR models, it is known that the GTWR model with exponential weighting kernel function is the best model is used to analyze proportion of poor people in Central Java province in 2008 to 2012 because it has a value of R2 larger and MSE is the smallest. Keywords: Bandwidth, Cross Validation, Exponential Kernel Functions, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression, Weighted Least Square, R2, Mean Squared Error.

Co-Authors . Aprizal Abdul Hoyyi abdullah nur aziz Abdullah Nur Aziz Abellisa Abellisa Acnes Ratu Dea Adek Cerah Kurnia Azis Adin Ariyanti Dewi Agung - Kusasti Agus Rusgiyono Al Azhar Alan Prahutama Alief Abdullah Faqih Aminuddin Aminuddin Aminuyati Amiruddin Amiruddin Andi Novita Andry Dwira Utama Anggit Ratnakusuma Anggraini Susanti Kusumawardani Anjan Setyo Wahyudi Anna Farida Annisa Annisa Annisa Rifka Alifia Anton Suhartono Any Nurhasanah Aqila Yusriyya Hanun Aref Vai Arham Arham Arief Rachman Hakim Arief Seno Nugroho Arif Widagdo Ariyo Kurniawan Arman Sayuti Aryani Sairun Aryono Rahmad Hakim Aselina Pratidina Wrediningsih Aulia Syafidah Ayuni Ruslina B.Y. Eko Budi Jumpeno Baehaqi Bandhia Ayu Lestari Budi Warsito Cakra Kurniawan Christina Irnani Cut Nila Thasmi Cyntia Surya Utami Darari Rahma Lalita Darmanto Silalahi Darmawi Darmawi Dasrul Dasrul Daulat Saragi Dede Rusmawan Dedi Nugraha Delfiana Anggraini Permatasari Devi Peggy Utami Dhiniaty Gularso Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Dian Febriana Dita Rosita Sari Dita Ruliana Djoko Adi Walujo Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Sari Tristiana Eko Adyan Sukanianto Elsa Mariane Ramadani Endra Susila Erna Fransisca Angela Sihotang Erna Musri Arlita Erwin Erwin Esti Pratiwi Etriwati E F, Arumi Savitri Fakhrurrazi Fakhrurrazi Farzand Abdullatif Fatkhan Arissetya Fatma Septy Deviana Firda Shintia Dewi Friska Irnas Adiyani Frisyi Alfiah Gholib Gholib Ginta Riady Hamdan Hamdan Hamdani Budiman Hartono Hartono hartono hartono Hartono Hartono Haryanti Novitasari Hasbi Yasin Hayuk Permatasari Ilham Indra Bakti Al-Irsyad Ilhan Samudra Fattah Indah Nurhayati Indrarini D. I. Indria Tsani Hazhiah Ira Susanti Ismail Ismail Issabella Marsasella Christy Jenesia Kusuma Wardhani Joko Sutrisno Julia Kardin Juliani Juliani Kelik Isbiyantoro Khusnul Yeni Widiyanti Kiky Moelviani Kofifah Indar Prawansyah Lailatus Sya’diyah Laily Nadhifah Lenti Agustina Lianasari Tambunan Leny Darlem Luthfi Nashukha Dewi M Daud AK M Nur Salim M. Chairul Amri M. Hasan Mahdi Abrar Mahdi Abrar Martyanto Tedjo Masfuhurrizqi Iman Mekar Sekar Sari Melati Puspa Nur Fadlilah Meliy Marsanda Merynda Indriyani Syafutri Moch. Abdul Mukid Muhammad Al Kholif Muhammad Faizin Muhammad Hambal Muhammad Hanafiah Muslim Akmal Mustafid Mustafid Muzammil Muzammil Nabigus Thoriq Harasta Nandita Aprilia Ayu Virnanda Nia Puspita Sari Niha Kamaliya Niken Nindyaiswari Noveda Mulya Wibowo NOVIA RAHMAWATI Nur Paramita Nira Mulyono Nurliana Nurliana NURLIANA NURLIANA Nursihan Nursihan Nurul Trianda Prameswari R. Kusumo Pratiwi Purnama Sari Prizka Rismawati Arum Pujiono Pujiono Pungut Pungut Pungut, Pungut Purina Pakurnia Artiguna Putra Halomoan Siregar R. Burhan Sn. Diningrat Rahmah Merdekawaty Rany Wahyuningtias Ratnawati, Rhenny Razali Daud Razali Razali Resti Tiara Kastrovia Restu Dewi Kusumo Astuti Rinidar Rinidar Rintan Aulal Ilmy Rita Rachmawati Rita Rahmawati Rivaldi Luthfi Rizki Aulia Rohiman Rohiman Roslizawaty Roslizawaty Rukun Santoso Rusli Rusli Salsabilah Balqis Sehah Sehah Sigit Puspito Sigma Wahyuni Silvia Rahmawati Simon Petrus Silalahi Siti Aisyah Siti Anisah Siti Azizah Siti Maghfirotin Soimah Siti Ma’rifah Slamet Slamet Slamet Slamet Sofia Cahyatilmasamah Sri Maya Sari Damanik Sri Wahyuni Sudarno Sudarno Suparno Suparno Suparti Suparti Susi Darmayanti Susy Sriwahyuni Sutrasno Sutrasno Swasnita Swasnita Syaiful, Friska Sylvi Natalia P P T. Armansyah TR T. Fadrial Karmil Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Teuku Reza Ferasyi Teuku Reza Ferasyi Teuku Zahrial Helmi Tiani Wahyu Utami Titin Afriana Tongku Nizwan Siregar Triastuti Wuryandari Tristanti Tristanti Ulya Chofifah Ummu Balqis USWATUN HASANAH Vara Tassa Sutari Velly Ika Arfianda P A Vita Dwi Rachmawati Wahyu Wibawa Wayaning Apsari Widodo Soemadi Widya Ayu Yuliana Widya Nanda Wilis Ardiana Pradana Yuciana Wilandari Yudan Hermawan Yunanur Hanikmah Yustina Tri Handayani Yusuf Arifka Rahman Zamroni Zamroni Zaroh Irayani Zuhrawati NA Zulpikar Zulpikar

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