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Della Fadhilatunisa
Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar
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Journal : International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS)

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The accuracy of forecasting results of the Box-Jenkins method for time series analysis on the number of pneumonia patients Radhiah, Sitti; Fakhri, Muhammad Miftach; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Rosidah, Rosidah; Fadhilatunisa, Della; Arifiyanti, Fitria; Soeharto, Soeharto; Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto
International Journal of Public Health Science (IJPHS) Vol 12, No 4: December 2023
Publisher : Intelektual Pustaka Media Utama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijphs.v12i4.22961

Abstract

This study was quantitative with a non-reactive or unobstructed approach using Time Series analysis with the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method on secondary data. From secondary data, 1, 3, and 6 monthly data simulations were carried out. Each simulation data was divided into two groups: the first group of initialization data for 2016 – 2019 and the second group of actual data for 2020. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of forecasting results using the Box- Jenkins method on the number of pneumonia sufferers at Kamonji Public Health Center, Palu. The 1-monthly data simulation amounted to 48-time series as initialization data, obtained the appropriate forecasting model, namely ARIMA (1,1,1), then forecasting was done, and the results obtained were 289,166 patients with pneumonia. There are 16-time series simulations for 3-monthly data as initialization data and 6-monthly simulations totaling two-time series for initialization data, not finding a suitable model for forecasting. In conclusion, no data simulation gets the right result on the number of pneumonia sufferers because it gets more forecasting results than the actual data. Suggestions that can be given in this research are to use data that is more than five years old.
Co-Authors A. Arianugerah Ilham A. Arianugerah Ilham A. Nurul Uswatun Hasanah A.M Yusran Mazidan AA Sudharmawan, AA Aditya, Roby Ahmad Faris Al Faruq Ahmad Risal Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Ainul Fikri Hamsir Ainun Zahra Adistia Akhmad Affandi Akmal Hidayat Aldy Kurniawan Muhlis Aldy Kurniawan Muhlis Alifah Khairunnisa Alisyahbana, Andi Naila Quin Azisah Aminuyati Ana Sulistiana Alwi Andi Baso Kaswar Andi Baso Kaswar Andi Fauziyyah Agustin Nur Andi Naila Quin Azisah Aliasyahbana Andi Naila Quin Azisah Alisyahbana Andi Shelma Putri Azzahra Andi Wawo Andika Isma Andriani, Reski Anita Candra Dewi Annafiah, Nur Annisa Nabilah Hasan Annisar Saputra Anwar Wahid Aras, Ainul Karima Ardiansyah Ardiansyah Ardiansyah Arifiyanti, Fitria Armalia Renni WA Arya Putra Abshari Ashadi, Ninik Rahayu Asri Ismail Asriadi Asriadi Asriayani Asriayani Asriayani Azzahra Eka Azzahra, Andi Shelma Putri Baso, Fadhlirrahman Chaerullah Burhan, Muh. Dary Mochamad Rifqie Dewi Fatmarani Surianto Dewi, Shabrina Syntha Dwi Anggraeni Saputri Dzakiyyah Alfaaizah Elfa Syariati, Namla Fadhlirrahman Baso Fajar B, Muhammad Fajriani Azis Fajrin, Farid Farid Fajrin Faruq, Ahmad Faris Al Fitriyanty Dwi Lestary Furqan Ali Yusuf Gusnasary Hajar Dewantara Haliana Halim Hamdan, Muhammad Nurfaizy Hartono Helmy, Ahnaf Riyandirga Ariyansyah Putra Hidayat M, Wahyu Iin Pratiwi Iin Pratiwi Ince Nur Akbar Indah Febriyani Asril Ismail, Megawati Jamaluddin Majid Jasruddin Daud Malago Juharman, Muh. Jumadil Ahmad Safii Jumadil Ahmad Safi’i Kartini Kahar Kumalasari Lince Bulutoding M. Miftach Fakhri Maipa Dhea Pati Megawati Ismail Memen Suwandi Mita Fitriani Muh Akbar B Muh Bhilal Halim Muh. Alif Muh. Bhilal Halim MUH. CHAERULLAH BURHAN Muh. Juharman Muh. Sunan Jaya Irmawan Muh. Yusuf K Muhalim Muhammad Alif Leo Muhammad Fajar B Muhammad Fardan Muhammad Haristo Rahman Muhammad Ibrahim Muhammad Nurfaizy Hamdan Nafil Rizqullah Rajab Nafil Rizqullah Rajab Namla Elfa Syariati Ninik Rahayu Ashadi Nur Qirani Ridhaihi Nur Rahma Sari Nur Rahmah Sari Nur Wahida Dachlan Ladiku Nurafni Oktaviyah Nurdalila Ashilah Ubaid Nurfasilah, Nurfasilah Nurikhlas Noerpa Gunawan Nurikhlas Nurpa Gunawan Nurrahmah Agusnaya Oky Nur Pratiwi Johansyah Pualam, Andi Ruby Arsy Putri Nanda Sari Putri Nirmala Radhiah Rahmah Sari, Nur Raodahtul Jannah Raodahtul Jannah Raodatul Jannah Resky Resky Resky Resky Rezky Mutmainnah Rifqa Awalia Roby Aditiya Roby Aditiya Roby Aditya Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Rosidah Rustam, Andi Ryketeng, Masdar S Sumarlin Saiful Muchlis Salomo Benny Junian Sanatang Satnur, Muh. Alham Setialaksana, Wirawan - Shasa Inayah Vega Shasa Inayah Vega Shera Afidatunisa Siti Sakina A.F Sitti Radhiah Soeharto Soeharto Sudarmanto Jayanegara Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Suhartono Sulaiman, Dwi Rezky Anandari Sulfa Inriani Sumarlin Sumarlin Syariati, Namla Elfa Tabash, Mosab Talaohu, Sanunggarah Ulya Mayziyadah Vidiyanto, Vidiyanto Wahyu Hidayat M Wilda Mustari yariati, Namla Elfa Yuanita B Yunita Alfira Liadi