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Risk of Ruin (ROR) Analysis in Casino Games Using Poisson Distribution Josua, Lancelot Julsen; Prawiro, Meivin Mulyo; Saputra, Jumadil; Yuningsih, Siti Hadiaty
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), June 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i2.312

Abstract

Gambling in casino games is an uncertain business because it creates two possibilities between the hope of winning or the risk of losing. The risks faced by casinos are usually analyzed using the Risk of Ruin (ROR). The main focus of this study is to apply the mathematical model of ROR using the Poisson distribution to model random events in gambling by considering the house advantage (a) and the law of large numbers. This study discusses the relationship between variables, such as maximum bet limits and cash flows and examines how these factors affect the risk of casino bankruptcy. In its business characteristics, casinos operate as gambling business entities and utilize the house advantage to achieve their financial benefits. House advantage indicates the profitability of the casino. However, the uncertainty of this gambling can pose a risk of bankruptcy for them. In this study, the house advantage is included in our model for several popular casino games. In addition, a set of full-range scales is defined to facilitate effective assessment of the level of risk faced by the casino, considering its regulatory context. This study also uses the binomial random walk model to describe the race between the casino and the gambler, where each step has two possible outcomes, namely winning or losing. The results of this study are expected to provide insight into the risk in calculating risk in optimizing betting decisions and reducing the risk of bankruptcy.
ANALYSIS OF BREAK EVEN POINT AND MARGIN OF SAFETY AS A BASIS FOR PROFIT PLANNING AT PT UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK IN 2017-2021 Dailami, Ahmad; Kardofa, Mochamad; Saputra, Jumadil
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), August 2024
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v5i3.324

Abstract

Earning profit or profit is the main goal of establishing a company. To know how much budget needs to be spent to achieve the goal, the profit must be calculated first. Break even point (BEP) analysis is one of the tools to determine the estimated profit from the sale of the products offered. However, a high margin of safety (MOS) will protect the company from the risk of loss. The purpose of this study is to determine the profit planning for PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. The method used is a descriptive quantitative method with a case study approach. From the research that has been done, the results show that sales have exceeded the predetermined BEP, as well as the MOS value obtained has a positive trend or an increase. In order to get more maximum results or profits the company needs to also pay attention to achieving sales targets. The target can be achieved if the company can make cost efficiency and increase sales volume.
Decrypting the Relationship Between Corruption and Human Development: Evidence from Indonesia Hardi, Irsan; Saputra, Jumadil; Hadiyani, Rahmilia; Maulana, Ar Razy Ridha; Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig
Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): July 2023
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/eje.v1i1.22

Abstract

Corruption is considered endemic in a large part of the world's population and is believed to be a factor that disrupts market behavior and distorts competition, thereby hindering economic growth and human development. This study aims to unveil the impact of corruption on Indonesia's human development through various approaches, utilizing Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA), Path Analysis, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods, with data covering the period from 1995 to 2022. The results of the estimation are discussed in three parts: 1) Dynamic Impact, by analyzing the long-term direct effect of corruption on human development; 2) Indirect Impact, by examining the role of government expenditure, tax revenue, and public debt in mediating the effect of corruption on human development; and 3) Causal Impact, by determining the unidirectional and bidirectional relationships between all variables studied. The findings indicate that corruption does not have a lasting direct impact on human development. Moreover, government expenditure and public debt play a role in moderating the impact of corruption on human development. Additionally, there is no causal link between corruption and human development, whereas there are causal connections between human development, government expenditure, tax revenue, and public debt. The results of this study will be valuable in assessing the extent of corruption's impact on human development, particularly in Indonesia, and aim to raise awareness of policymakers, hence encouraging individuals to participate in combating corruption.
Economic Growth, Agriculture, Capital Formation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Indonesia: FMOLS, DOLS and CCR Applications Hardi, Irsan; Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig; Zulham, Teuku; Suriani, Suriani; Saputra, Jumadil
Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): November 2023
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/eje.v1i2.109

Abstract

Economic growth drives increased demand for resources, placing greater pressure on the agricultural sector. While the adoption of advanced technologies and increased capital investment can enhance productivity, they also have environmental consequences, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Based on this interconnected issue, this study aims to examine the long-term relationships between economic growth, agricultural productivity, gross fixed capital formation, and greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia, utilizing data from the period 1965-2021. The study employs the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methods, and includes robustness checks using the Canonical Cointegration Regressions (CCR) method. To provide a more comprehensive insight, the study also employs the pairwise Granger causality approach to detect the direction of the relationships. In concise terms, the results suggest that agricultural productivity, gross fixed capital formation, and greenhouse gas emissions have a positive long-term influence on economic growth. Additionally, gross fixed capital formation has a negative effect, while economic growth has a positive long-term impact on agricultural productivity. Furthermore, agricultural productivity has a negative impact, while economic growth indicates a positive long-term effect on gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, economic growth positively influences greenhouse gas emissions over the long term. Lastly, the study found three bidirectional causalities, with greenhouse gas emissions as the central figure. These important findings provide crucial information for policymakers, economists, and environmentalists, giving a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationships between economic activities and environmental consequences, as well as aiding in the formulation of sustainable strategies for green economic growth, especially in Indonesia.
Good Corporate Governance, Stakeholders, and Sustainability Report Disclosure Syahirah, Sheila Najla; Suharman, Harry; Hasyir, Dede Abdul; Saputra, Jumadil
Khazanah Sosial Vol 5, No 4 (2023): Khazanah Sosial
Publisher : UIN Sunan Gunung Djati

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/ks.v5i4.30630

Abstract

Indonesia currently lacks a mandatory framework for sustainability reporting, with the existing reporting requirements focusing on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reports rather than comprehensive sustainability reporting. This situation has resulted in a significant gap in the disclosure of sustainability reports, as organizations often merely comply with CSR reporting obligations, neglecting broader sustainability considerations. In 2020, challenges in sustainability reporting were evident, particularly in the environmental, agrarian, and energy sectors. The Indonesian Forum for the Environment highlighted issues such as the overexploitation of energy resources for corporate profits and potential biases from the government in supporting energy and manufacturing markets, posing threats to sustainability reporting. This study investigates the influence of Good Corporate Governance (GCG) and stakeholder pressure on sustainability report disclosure. Utilizing a quantitative approach, the research focused on companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) operating in the energy, raw materials, industry, and infrastructure sectors, specifically those actively publishing sustainability reports. The data, extracted from sustainability reports available on the BEI website, underwent statistical multiple regression analysis. The findings reveal a significant positive impact of both good corporate governance and stakeholder pressure on sustainability report disclosure, accounting for 77.5%. The implications suggest that social pressure and GCG practices contribute to enhanced sustainability reporting, urging the government to establish more stringent regulations. Future research recommendations include expanding the sample size and incorporating additional variables.
The Perpetual Patriarchy And How Dangdut Music Deals With It In A Study Of Semiotic Analysis Meifilina, Andiwi; Saputra, Jumadil
ETTISAL : Journal of Communication Vol. 9 No. 2 (2024): ETTISAL : Journal of Communication
Publisher : Universitas Darussalam Gontor collaboration with ISKI (Ikatan Sarjana Ilmu Komunikasi Indo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21111/ejoc.v9i2.12428

Abstract

Dangdut music is now synonymous with the expression of sexuality. The dangdut phenomenon is actually a national phenomenon, with the concept of selling sexuality becoming a trading strategy by carrying out stage tricks that approach cultural hyperreality that also perpetuate patriarchal culture for dangdut songs dominated by sexuality. This is in contrast to dangdut songs with a religious genre that have a mission of resistance and victory over the patriarchal system. The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare the semiotics of the representation of power over sexuality in the dangdut song “Duo Semangka” and the religious genre dangdut song “Nasida Ria”. This study is different from previous studies because previous studies have revealed more erotic dancing while this study reveals video clips that are used as points of sensuality along with song lyrics that contain erotic elements and a comparison of religious song lyrics. This qualitative research uses Roland Barthes› semiotic method for the investigation of symbols, forming an important tradition of thought in communication theories. Roland Barthes sees deeper meanings at a more conventional level, namely denotative, connotative and mythical meanings. This study categorizes the patriarchal power found in Duo Semangka dangdut music into five parts, namely the female body, women as seducers of men, relations between men and women and women as objects of men›s gaze and the hyperreality of stage tricks that perpetuate patriarchy. The existence of cultural deviations in patriarchy means that there must be special efforts in implementing the propriety of art and culture. The occurrence of a cultural crisis must be returned to the musical order that is in accordance with the nation›s culture. It is necessary to continue to support dangdut artists to create works with religious themes and pride in the nation›s culture. Steps to balance patriarchal culture in dangdut song lyrics and video clips can be done by raising awareness of patriarchal culture. Furthermore, supporting social change and policies in gender equality in dangdut entertainment songs and video clips. Prioritizing male awareness of social change and becoming agents of change in changing this social norm. There needs to be a dangdut singer who has a mission to fight to cut down on patriarchal culture and show a voice of resistance against social construction that is very gender biased.
Application of Fish Waste Processing for Sustainable Livestock Feed Production A Community Engagement Study in Garut Regency Azahra, Astrid Sulistya; Saputra, Jumadil; Saefullah, Rifki
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 5, No 4 (2024)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v5i4.714

Abstract

This community engagement study aimed to develop an application for processing fish waste into animal feed based in an incubator system in Garut Regency. The program was conducted from May to November 2023 with the primary objective of transferring technology in waste processing and animal feed production to partner groups. Methods included socialization, technical and non-technical training, and direct mentoring in animal feed pellet production. Results showed a significant improvement in the knowledge and skills of the groups in producing fish waste pellets, reducing feed production costs, and enhancing the sustainability of local livestock businesses. Challenges encountered included initial production limitations and consumer trust in new products. With in-depth scientific approaches and sustained support, the program successfully created positive impacts on the environment and community economic welfare.
Determination of Risk Value Using the ARMA-GJR-GARCH Model on BCA Stocks and BNI Stocks Hidayana, Rizki Apriva; Napitupulu, Herlina; Saputra, Jumadil
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 2 No. 3 (2021): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2021
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v2i3.176

Abstract

Stocks are common investments that are in great demand by investors. Stocks are also an investment instrument that provides returns but tends to be riskier. The return time series is easier to handle than the price time series. In investment activities, there are the most important components, namely volatility and risk. All financial evaluations require accurate volatility predictions. Volatility is identical to the conditional standard deviation of stock price returns. The most frequently used risk calculation is Value-at-Risk (VaR). Mathematical models can be used to predict future stock prices, the model that will be used is the Glosten Jagannathan Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) model. The purpose of this study was to determine the value of the risk obtained by using the time series model. GJR-GARCH is a development of GARCH by including the leverage effect. The effect of leverage is related to the concept of asymmetry. Asymmetry generally arises because of the difference between price changes and value volatility. The method used in this study is a literature and experimental study through secondary data simulations in the form of daily data from BCA shares and BNI shares. Data processing by looking at the heteroscedasticity of the data, then continued by using the GARCH model and seeing whether there is an asymmetry in the data. If there is an asymmetric effect on the processed data, then it is continued by using the GJR-GARCH model. The results obtained on the two stocks can be explained that the analyzed stock has a stock return volatility value for the leverage effect because the GJR-GARCH coefficient value is > 0. So, the risk value obtained by using VaR measurements on BCA stocks is 0.047247 and on BNI stocks. is 0.037355. Therefore, the ARMA-GJR-GARCH model is good for determining the value of stock risk using VaR.
Determination of VaR on BBRI Stocks and BMRI Stocks Using the ARIMA-GARCH Model Napitupulu, Herlina; Hidayana, Rizki Apriva; Saputra, Jumadil
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 2 No. 3 (2021): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2021
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v2i3.178

Abstract

Stocks are investment instruments that are much in demand by investors as a basis in financial storage. Return and risk are the most important things in investing. Return is a complete summary of investment and the return series is easier to handle than the price series. The movement of risk of loss is obtained from stock investments with profits. One way to calculate risk is value-at-risk. The movement of stocks is used to form a time series so that the calculation of risk can use time series. The purpose of this study was to find out the Value-at-Risk value of BBRI and BMRI stock using the ARIMA-GARCH model. The data used in this study was the daily closing price for 3 years. The time series method used is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The stage of analysis is to determine the prediction of stock price movements using the ARIMA model used for the mean model and the GARCH model is used for volatility models. The average value and variants obtained from the model are used to calculate value-at-risk in BBRI and BMRI stock. The results obtained are the ARIMA(3,0,3)-GARCH(1,1) and ARIMA(2,0,2)-GARCH(1,1) model so with a significance level of 5% obtained Value-at-Risk of 0.04058 to BBRI stock and 0.10167 to BMRI stock.
Value-at-Risk Estimation of Indofood (ICBP) and Gas Company (PGAS) Stocks Using the ARMA-GJR-GARCH Model Napitupulu, Herlina; Hidayana, Rizki Apriva; Saputra, Jumadil
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 2 No. 4 (2021): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2021
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v2i4.183

Abstract

Stocks are one of the most widely used financial market instruments by investors in investing. The most important component of any investment is volatility. Volatility is a conditional measure of variance in stock returns and is important for risk management. In addition to volatility, the important things in investing are return and risk. Risk can be measured using Value-at-Risk (VaR) and can estimate the maximum loss that occurs. The purpose of this study is to determine VaR using the Autoregressive Moving Average-Glosten Jagannatan Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GJR-GARCH) model. The stages of data analysis used are estimating the ARMA model and the GARCH model, then estimating the GJR-GARCH model by looking at the heteroscedasticity and asymmetric effects on the GARCH model. Next, determine the VaR value from the estimated mean and variance (volatility) using the ARMA-GJR-GARCH model. The results of the model estimator obtained are based on the return data for the four stocks analyzed, namely the ARMA (5,5)-GJR-GARCH (1,1) model for ICBP stocks and ARMA (1,2)-GJR-GARCH (1,1) for PGAS shares. The Value-at-Risk values of each stock are 0.060427 and 0.024724. This research can be used by investors as a consideration in making investment decisions.
Co-Authors A Hadi Arifin Agapa, M. Fasya Febri Agung Prabowo Agus Santoso Ahmad Dailami, Ahmad Ai Nurhayati Akmal Saputra Ali Syah Putra Aliasuddin Aliasuddin Alimin, Erina Ambiya, Utari Nur Amelisqi, Lusi Bilqis Amin Hou Amiruddin Idris Amni Zarkasyi Rahman, Amni Zarkasyi Andiwi Meifilina, Andiwi Angga, Binanga Anggia Suci Pratiwi Anggita, Sahira Anggraeni, Putri Siti Annur M, Ade Isna Anugerah, Dandi Ariffin, Ku Halim Bin Ku Assidqi, Hasbi Asti Nur Aryanti Astuti, Devi Fitri Ayulita Ramadhani Azahra, Astrid Sulistya Badruzaman, Jajang Betty Subartini Brahmantia, Bayu Budi Hendrawan Chairul Furqon, Chairul Chatarina Lilis Suryani Christianingrum Cut Annisa Fitriati Dalimunthe, Doli Muhammad Jafar Dede Abdul Hasyir Detrianty, Fitria Rika Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty Dierayani, Allysa Putri DIRYO SUPARTO Dwi Susanti Dwijaningtyas, Srinata Dwiyati Pujimulyani EKO EDDYA SUPRIYANTO EKO EDDYA SUPRIYANTO Eko Wahyudi, Fendy Erlina Erlina Evi Widowati F, Ayunda Alysa Fahrul Rizal, Fahrul Fairuztama, Rafif Fauzi, Muhamad Hasman Fauziah, Irma Silvia Fauziah, Mustika Fitriyani, Seni D Geubrina, Yulia Ghazali, Puspa Liza H, Yunita Sri Hadiyani, Rahmilia Hafni Zahara Hardi, Irsan Hari Mulyadi, Hari Hendra Raza Heny Hendrayati Herlina Napitupulu Hermawan, Riki Hidayana, Rizki Apriva Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig Inriati, Dhea Intan, Dede Ira Apriyanti isfenti sadalia Iskandar Muda Islah, Tsani Jamilah Jamilah Josua, Lancelot Julsen Julieta, Salma Kardofa, Mochamad Khoeryza, Rima Laksito, Grida Saktian Lugiana, Yuda Madani, Fathi Makia Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila Maruf, Cipta Muhammad Maulana, Ar Razy Ridha Maulana, Deni Maulani, Nishfi Rahmah Meida Rachmawati Muhammad Abrar Mujiarto, Mujiarto Murni Daulay Mursyidin Mursyidin NADILA SAVIRA Nadjib, Nadjib Nasib Nazila, Siti Desi Nellis Mardhiah Neni Nuraeni, Neni Nizar P, Ajeng Noka Omalia Noor F, Deng Dewi Novitasari, Aliffiah Novitasari, Ela Nur Elfaz, Zam Zam Nurazizah, Dina Nurhayat, Firman Arif Nurjaman, Diman Nurkamilah, Milah Nurmala Nurmala Nurohmah Dona, Tiara Gita Nurul Istiqomah, Insya Siti Nuryuniarti, Rissa Palupi Permata Rahmi Permata, Shintia Pirdaus, Dede Irman Pranoto Pranoto Pratama, Muhamad Risky Pratiwi, Denisa Lestari Prawiro, Meivin Mulyo Puteh, Anwar Putra, Fadlan Gunawan Rahmad Syukur Rahman Alfarisi, Rendi Raja Masbar Rico Nur Ilham Ridho, Adil Risma, Neng Robiatul A, Wahda Saefullah, Rifki Sajidah, Febi Zulfa Salqaura, Siti Alhamra Salsabila, Nabila Saparudin, Miftahul Rizki Saputra, Nadia Sari, Risna Purnama Sariartha Sianipar, Aryanti Septiani, Lisma Septiani, Resty Shinta Dewi, Reni Shofiatun Nisa, Wafa Sidiq, Fahmi Simanjuntak, Alberto Sinurat, Mangasi Siregar, Wardah Muharriyanti Siti Maria Ulfa Sofyan Sofyan Sopia, Dea Sri Nita, Sri Suharman, Harry Sukono . Sullaida, Sullaida Suriani Suriani Suryana Suryana Syahirah, Sheila Najla Syahputra Silalahi, Amlys Syntha, Bunga T. Zulham Urrohman, Nida Wahid, Alim Jaizul Wahyuddin Wahyuni, Arni Sri Wan Ridwan Husen, Wan Ridwan Widiartanto Widiartanto Widiawaty, Shindy Cantika Windi Amelia, Windi Wintara, Jane Ayu Wiranatakusuma, Dimas Bagus Yahya, Muhammad Ilham Yunda, Lola Irma Yuningsih, Siti Hadiaty Yusril Ihza Mahendra Zikri Muhammad