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Quantifying the Effect of Natural Consolidation and Fluid Discharge on Land Subsidence of the Sidoarjo Mud Volcano, East Java, Indonesia Bayuaji, Giri; Saepuloh, Asep; Pamumpuni , Astyka; Dedy Wijnarko; Maryudhaningrum, Santika Tristi
Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment, and Technology Vol. 11 No. 02 (2026): Article In Press-JGEET Vol 11 No 02 : June (2026)
Publisher : UIR PRESS

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Abstract

Land subsidence in the Sidoarjo Mud Volcano (SMV) area has been widely recognized as a consequence of sustained mud discharge and progressive subsurface consolidation. Earlier geodetic studies using GPS and InSAR, combined with geological and geomechanical investigations, have demonstrated persistent long‑term ground deformation, widespread flooding, and severe infrastructure damage linked to these processes. This study aims to (1) quantify spatial and temporal subsidence rates, (2) identify the dominant controlling mechanisms, and (3) estimate the relative contributions of fluid discharge and natural consolidation to total subsidence. Surface deformation was derived through time‑series analysis of Sentinel‑1A SAR data using the pair‑wise logic technique differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PLT‑D‑InSAR). These results were integrated with one‑dimensional (1D) consolidation modeling based on lithological coring data and mud discharge records. The PLT‑D‑InSAR analysis successfully captured detailed subsidence patterns over a wide area and shows good agreement with GPS observations (R² ≈ 0.82). The combined D‑InSAR, consolidation, and discharge analysis reveals a very strong correlation (R² ≈ 0.97), indicating that subsidence is mainly governed by fluid discharge and consolidation processes. Fluid discharge accounts for approximately 72.2% of the total subsidence, while natural consolidation contributes about 16.5%. The highest subsidence rates are concentrated near the mudflow center and are structurally influenced by the Watukosek and Siring faults. These findings highlight the dominant role of discharge‑induced deformation and provide important constraints for long‑term hazard assessment and land‑use planning in the SMV region.
Co-Authors Abdul Fatah Hassanudin Abdullah Ramdhani Adawiyah, Sulistia Nursyamsiyah Adelia Adiningsih, Cinde Adhara, Yhora Listy Adi Firmansyah Adriansyah, David Agus Handoyo Harsolumakso, Agus Handoyo Agustiningtyas, Lestari Alfiana Alkusani, Alkusani Ananda Bagus Satria Andhinna Yunniekasari Andri Muhammad Nuroni Andri Sukmaindrayana Anggun Pertiwi Aprilia, Yulianti Awit Marwati Sakinah Awwaliyah, Nurul Aini Al Bambang Handoko Bariadi, Laode Bayuaji, Giri Budiyono Pristyadi Butet Oyong Nurasiah D. Nurfajrin Ningsih Damar Nandiwardhana, Damar Damayanti, Mila Aisilia Daru Maliki Dedy Wijnarko Destya Forcsa Dewantoro, Ahmad Qoni Dewi, Rosiana Dewi, Sofia Dhatu Kamajati, Dhatu Dicky Jhoansyah Dimala, Cempaka Putrie Diningsih, Cinde Adia Dodo Eka Pristianti S Elis Homsini Maolida Elkin Rilvani Estu Kriswati Fadila Siti Nuraeni Fahmi, Raizal Fajar Yunawwirudin febriani, ermila Febriyana, Karisman Fitri Syakinah Frederikus Dian Indrastomo, Frederikus Dian Ghazali, Mochamad Firman Gumilar, Irfan Rizki Hadi Ismanto Hadi Supratikta Halimah Hamdani, Dandi Hapid Burhanudin Haryanto Lukmana, Allen Hassanudin, Abdul Fatah HENDRA GUNAWAN B11211055 Hendra Suwardana Hermina, Tinneke Heru Baskoro I Gde Sukadana Ida Nuraida Imel Aura Agustin Ipah Saripah, Ipah Iskandar, Risda Alena Jauhar Helmie Kahfi, Martin Kaspiraya, Mita Ketut Wikantika Komala, Ela Komalasari, Esti Kurniawan, Rajab Lidinillah, Siti Habibah Lucky Anggara Maryam, Siti Rahmi Maryudhaningrum, Santika Tristi Melsandi Mila Salbiyah Mirani Erliana S Nadila Elsa Nailah Sayyidatii Hayaa Nia Kurniawati Ningsih, Dinni Nurfajrin Nugraha, Agus Ramdhani Nugraha, Sukma Nugraha, Yudhistira Adika Nur Fauziah Putri Nuraeni, Intan Nurfajrin Ningsih, Dini Nurfitria Khoirunisa Nurhasan, Rohimat Nurhayati Halimatu Sya'diah, Siti Nurjaman Pamumpuni , Astyka Panji Anwar Sanusi Perwito, Perwito Pina Aulia M Prayoga, Ardy Setya Prihadi Sumintadireja, Prihadi Primadipta, Indira Wido Purnamasari, Heruningtyas Desi Rahmanto, Ridwan Ramadhani, Siva Malika Putri Ratnawati, Yeli Raynan, Muhamad Dzikry Restiani Ria Zulfiana Rima Rachmayani, Rima Rizqi, Maulidyah Amalina Rohaeni, Anie Rudyana, Ikhsan Saepuloh Sahana, Muhammad Irham Salsabila, Vina Aini Sarip Hidayatulloh Septiana, Taufik Setianto, Nasrul Setiawan, Rahyuniati Setiawati, Wawat Siti Mardiana Siti Maryam Slamet Rahayu Sofyan Primulyana Sukaris Sulistiyani, Adinda Sungkawa, Muhamad Guntur Gaos Suyono, Annisa Maharani Syahla Mutia Aini Syamsi, Wuri Arianty Taufan Abdurrachman Taufiqurrahman, Moh. Tetty Sufianty Zafar Tiaradia Ihsan Tri Herdiawan Apandi Tri Muji Susantoro, Tri Muji Tri Pratiwi, Meilanie Veronika Simanjutak Very Susanto vina andriani Vina Nurviyani Wati Susilawati, Wati Wenti Krisnawati Wijana, Miki Wijaya, P. Hadi Yeni Suryani Yoga Sampurna Yulia Nur Annisa Yundani Irmala Zaki Hilman Zuber