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All Journal DIKSI Media Statistika MATEMATIKA Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Biogenesis: Jurnal Ilmiah Biologi Jurnal Pendidikan Dasar Nusantara Majalah Kulit, Karet, dan Plastik Jurnal Spektra Bioeksperimen: Jurnal Penelitian Biologi Pedagogia: Jurnal Pendidikan E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Catharsis JURNAL KEPEMIMPINAN DAN PENGURUSAN SEKOLAH Briliant: Jurnal Riset dan Konseptual Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) BIOEDUSCIENCE Jurnal Pendidikan Terbuka Dan Jarak Jauh Journal of Education and Instruction (JOEAI) Jurnal Basicedu JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) JOURNAL OF ENGLISH FOR ACADEMIC Inovasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Manajemen JIKAP PGSD: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Kependidikan International Journal for Educational and Vocational Studies Social, Humanities, and Educational Studies (SHEs): Conference Series JURNAL PENDIDIKAN MIPA Jurnal Teknodik Jurnal Paedagogy Jurnal Graha Pengabdian Journal of Early Childhood Education (JECE) Indonesian Journal of Instructional Media and Model Epistema Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Indonesia (JPPI) EDUTECH : Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Berbantuan Teknologi JURNAL LENTERA AKUNTANSI DIKSI: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan dan Sosial Abdi Psikonomi Absorbent Mind Journal of Education Research Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Manajemen, Bisnis dan Akuntansi Jurnal Basicedu Prosiding University Research Colloquium JURNAL ABDIMAS PLJ JIM: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pendidikan Sejarah Jurnal Edukasi Pengabdian Masyarakat: EDUABDIMAS Jurnal Manajemen dan Administrasi Antartika Arty: Jurnal Seni Rupa Pinisi Journal Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar Jurnal Seni Tari Jurnal Teknik Informatika dan Desain Komunikasi Visual AGRONIMAL: Jurnal Ilmiah Pertanian dan Peternakan
Suparti Suparti
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains Dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro
Religion Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Social Sciences Other

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PERAMALAN HARGA BERAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT-WINTERS ADDITIVE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DENGAN OPTIMASI GOLDEN SECTION Yuni Nurul Faiza; Suparti Suparti; Arief Rachman Hakim
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 14, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.14.2.257-268

Abstract

Rice is one of the staples that must be fulfilled to support human survival. As a result, if the price of rice is instable, it can cause a decrease in people's purchasing power. Therefore, a system is needed that can forecast rice prices to help maintain food security. This study uses the Holt-Winters Additive method because it can be used to predict time series data that has trend and seasonal patterns. The optimum parameter is found using the Golden Section optimization method that minimize the MAPE value. The data used is the average monthly data of rice prices at the level of large trade (wholesale) Indonesia. The results showed that the data contained elements of trend and seasonality additives and obtained the best model with α = 0.999702, β = 0.059114, γ = 0.145618. The results of measuring the forecasting ability of the formed model show that the forecast results are close to the actual data and are evidenced by the MAPE out sample value of 7.006% which is include MAPE criteria < 10% so that the forecasting ability is very high. The forecast results for 2023 show that rice prices have fluctuated but the changes are not too significant.
PEMODELAN REGRESI GAMMA MENGGUNAKAN METODE OPTIMASI BROYDEN-FLETCHER-GOLDFARB-SHANNO (BFGS) (Studi Kasus : Pencemaran Sungai di Kota Semarang) Efifah Nur Safitri; Arief Rachman Hakim; Suparti Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 14, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.14.2.247-256

Abstract

Semarang City is one of the major industrial areas in Central Java and is located not far from residential areas. These large industries utilize a variety of chemicals to meet their needs, producing various wastes that are the main cause of high concentrations of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) in waters. Measurements on the COD value obtained are continuous data with Gamma distribution. In this study, Gamma regression is used to model the relationship between one or more predictor variables and a positive continuous response variable following a Gamma distribution. Parameter estimation in the Gamma regression model uses the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method because it does not produce an analytical solution, an optimization method will be carried out with the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) algorithm. This study aims to determine the Gamma regression model in the case of river pollution in Semarang City, determine the form of parameter estimation in the Gamma regression model and get what factors affect river pollution in Semarang City. Based on the  value of 0.4431498 where the ability of the predictor variables to explain the response variable is 44.32%, the remaining 55.68% of the response variable is explained by other factors not contained in the model.
PERBANDINGAN METODE HAZARD MULTIPLIKATIF DAN ADITIF PADA LAJU PERBAIKAN KONDISI KLINIS PASIEN STROKE DI RS MH THAMRIN CILEUNGSI TAHUN 2021 Zulfa Luthfiyyah Ayunda; Triastuti Wuryandari; Suparti Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 14, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.14.2.378-389

Abstract

Stroke is a condition that can result in permanent brain damage or even death. In Indonesia, the prevalence of stroke increased from 7% in 2013 to 10.9% in 2018. Numerous factors can affect a stroke patient's ability to recover. Survival analysis is a method that can be used to identify the variables that influence stroke patient’s ability to recover. Cox proportional hazard and Lin-ying additive hazard approaches were utilized in this study to analyze stroke patient data from MH Thamrin Cileungsi Hospital. The most widely used regression model for survival data is the Cox proportional hazard which makes the assumption that the ratio between the hazard functions of various people is constant. In contrast, in additive hazard regression there is no assumption of proportionality. Age and cardiac history are the factors that have an impact on how well stroke patients recover, according to the findings. The Lin-Ying additive hazard approach yields the best results since its RMSE value is lower (0.3808777) than that of the cox proportional hazard model (0.9248512).
The Potential of Breadfruit Seed and Jackfruit Seed as Alternative Replacement Medium of Potato Dextrose Agar (PDA) with Seedling F0 Mushrooms Suparti, Suparti; Agustina, Lina; Agustina, Putri; Rahmawati, Resti
Biogenesis: Jurnal Ilmiah Biologi Vol 7 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Department of Biology, Faculty of Sci and Tech, Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/bio.v7i1.6102

Abstract

Potato Dextrose Agar (PDA) is the most media to grow the mushrooms, but the price of this media is expensive. Thus we need alternative media that easy and cheap to get it. This study aims to determine the growth of Aspergillus niger in alternative Artocarpus communis and Artocarpus heterophyllus seeds media. This research was an experimental study using a completely randomized design (CRD) one factor was the type of media is PDA (M0), Artocarpus communis seed media (M1), Artocarpus heterophyllus seed media (M2) and using the test mushrooms A. niger (J1). Inoculation of A. niger used agar block method for 3 days with a temperature of 28°C. Parameter of research was colony diameter and sporulation of A. niger. Data obtained with qualitative and quantitative methods. The result of this research showed that the best growth for Aspergillus niger was after 72 hours incubation. Colony diameter continually in PDA media, Artocarpus communis media, and Artocarpus heterophyllus media is 4.7 cm, 4.3 cm, and 4.1 cm with heavy sporulation. Therefore, Artocarpus communis and Artocarpus heterophyllus seeds media can be utilized as a substitution of PDA media for the growth of mushrooms.
PERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN UNTUK DATA INFLASI INDONESIA Ica Rahma Kurniawati; Suparti Suparti; Tarno Tarno
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 15, No 1 (2026): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.15.1.224-233

Abstract

Inflation is one measure of a country’s economic condition. The inflation rate in Indonesia had decreased to 1.33% in June 2021 when the Covid-19 pandemic was hitting. Forecast of the inflation rate is needed for monitoring economic condition. The Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method can be used on data that contains trend elements and uses two smoothing parameters in the analysis, while the Fuzzy Time method Series Markov Chain is a development of the Fuzzy Time Series method with the Markov chain concept which does not have any conditions in its analysis. The results of forecasting analysis from the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method obtained an MAE value of 0.35957, while from the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method obtained an MAE value of 0.22462. Thus, the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain model is a better model in forecasting than the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method. That model is reused to analyze forecasting and get a MAPE value of 8.79% which means that the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain model predicts Indonesia’s inflation data very well.
Co-Authors A. Sulaksono, A. A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Aan Sofyan Abdul Hoyyi Adhytia, Rizkyhimawan Afandi, Adam Pri Agus Cahyono Agus Rusgiyono Agus Triyono Akbari, Windusiwi Asih Alan Prahutama Alanindra Saputra Alvita Rachma Devi Amanda Devi Paramitha Ambarwati Aminah Asngad Ananda, Refisa Angelia, Yuni Anggun Ella Indriyani Anik Rahmawati, Anik Any Setyaningsih, Any Arianti Suhartini Arieanti, Dian Dinarafika Arief Rachman Hakim Arief Rachman Hakim Arnisa Melani Kahar Aryansah, M. Pratama Ash Shiddiq, Fanchas Asismarta Asismarta, Asismarta Ayu Annisa Gharini AYU LESTARI Azizah, Adilla Nur Badriyah, Ratu Bahtiar Ilham Triyunanto Brillianing Pratiwi Budi Warsito Budiarti, Arivia Ayu Busnang, Yuliawati C Yuwono Sumasto, C Yuwono Deden Aditya Nanda, Deden Aditya Dewi, Anggra Lita Sandra Dewi, P A R Dhany Efita Sari Dhea Dewanti Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Dian Kristiana Dwi Ispriyanti Dwi Sambada Dwi Wahyuningsih, Dwi Dwikoranto Efifah Nur Safitri Eka Anisha Eka Destiyani Eka Fadilah Eka Wijayanti Eko Sugiyanto Ermanuri, Ermanuri Erna Sulistianingsih Ernawati, Devi Ernik Yuliana Esti Pratiwi Evelyna, Feby Evi Oktaviana, Desy Fadilah, Eka Finarsih, Fita Fitri Juniaty Simatupang, Fitri Juniaty Gina Wangsih Hamid, Lukman Hanifa Adityarahma Hanifah Nur Aini Happy Suci Puspitasari Hartono Hartono Hasbi Yasin Haya, Lovina Rizki Heni Nurhaeni I Made Sulandra Ica Rahma Kurniawati Ihdayani Banun Afa Immawati Ainun Habibah Intaniasari, Yossinta Iut Tri Utami Iut Triutami Izzudin Khalid, Izzudin Janaka, Janaka Jefferio Gusti Putratama Jody Hendrian Jumadi Jumadi Juwanda, Farikhin Karimawati, Nurul Kartika, Aninda Ayu Karwanto, Karwanto Khaerul Anam Khansa Amalia Fitroh Khansa, I H Khoirunnisa, Siti Intan Khulaifiyah, Khulaifiyah Lamik Nabil Mu&#039;affa Lina Agustina Lintangesukmanjaya, R T Lismiyati Marfuah, Lismiyati Lisnayati, Lisnayati Lulu Maulatus Saidah Lulus Darwati, Lulus M. Noris Malarsih Malarsih Maman Suryaman MASLIHATIN, LINA Meiliawati Aniska Milawati Milawati Moch. Abdul Mukid Mokhamad Nurjam'i MUHAMAD SHOLEH Muhammad Sulaiman Muhammad Taufan Muhtadi Muhtadi Muqorobin, Masculine Muhammad Mustafid Mustafid Mustaji Mustaji, Mustaji Mustofa, Achmad Nastiti, Tri Dyah Nia Istiana Noer Rachma, Gustyas Zella Nunuk Hariyati Nurhayati, Rizky Nurina Salma Alfiyyah Nurlia, Titim Nurmanita, Tiara Sevi Nurpitasari, Dewi Nurul Fitria Fitria Rizani Ovie Auliya’atul Faizah Paula Meilina Dwi Hapsari Peter Rajagukguk Pranata, Sepbrie Mulia Bingah Prasetyo, Mario Aditya Prastowo, Srihandono Budi Prastya, Agus Puspita Kartikasari Putra, D A Putri Agustina Rahma Dewi Hartati Rahman Kosasih, Fauzy Rahman, Syair Dafiq Faizur Rahmawati Patta, Rahmawati Rahmawati, Resti Rambat Rambat, Rambat Renti Oktaria, Renti Restu Lanjari Retnowati, Lina Riana Ayu Andam Pradewi Richy Priyambodo Rismawati Rismawati Rita Rahmawati RIZKYHIMAWAN, ADHYTIA Rohayati, Menik Rudi Saputro Setyo Purnomo Rukun Santoso Sa'adah, Alfi Faridatus Sadjati, Ida Malati Safitri, Wardani Ana Salma Farah Aliyah Salsa Bella, Shella Salsabila Rizkia Gusman Sania Anisa Farah Sanitoria Nadeak, Sanitoria Septian Hendra Wijaya Setiawan, Fuad Alfaridzi Setyoko Prismanu Ramadhan Sholihah, Zaimatu Silvia Elsa Suryana Silvia Nur Rinjani Singgih Subiyantoro Sirojuddin, Muhammad Siska Andriyani Siti Fadhilla Femadiyanti Siti Fatimah Sofiana Sofiana Sola Fide Sri Budiasih, Sri Sri Sumiyati Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningrum Suci Kurniawati Sucipto Hadi Purnomo Sudargo Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugiarti, Ning Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sunardi Sunardi Supeno Supratmi, Nunung Supriyanto, Rudy Suranto Suranto Surasmi, W A Surasmi, Wuwuh Asrining Suratno Suratno Susilo, Mas Bayu Sutrisno, Supadi Bambang Syafruddin , Syafruddin Syafruddin Syafruddin Syafruddin*, Syafruddin syah, naziah Syazwina Aufa Syiva Multi Fani T. Mart, T. Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Teguh Supriyanto Tiani Wahyu Utami Titik Suryani Triastuti Rahayu Triastuti Wuryandari Tyas Estiningrum Ul Haq, Hasna Faridah Dhiya Vera Handayani Victoria Dwi Murti Wahyu Lestari WAHYU SUKARTININGSIH Wahyu Tiara Rosaamalia Widari Widari, Widari Wiradharma, Gunawan Yasir Sidiq YATIM RIYANTO Yon Haryono Yuni Nurul Faiza Yunianika, Ika Tri Yuningsih Yuningsih Yupitasari, Yupitasari Yusak, Suharno Zein, Secondta Habib Syarifah Zia, Nabila Ghaida Zubaidah, Lailia Zuhri, Thoha Syaifudin Zulfa Luthfiyyah Ayunda