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Journal : Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM)

Implementasi Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) untuk Memprediksi Curah Hujan di Kota Semarang Ermawati, Asti; Amrullah, Ahmad; Huda, Khoirul; Haris, M. Al
Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 3 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32665/statkom.v3i2.3224

Abstract

Background: Rainfall is one of the important factors that has a significant impact on various aspects of life, especially in urban areas such as Semarang. Significant fluctuations in rainfall can cause flooding, which negatively impacts infrastructure, agriculture, health and well-being of the community. Therefore, accurate rainfall forecasting is essential to support informed decision-making. Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify and build an optimal SARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in Semarang City. Methods: This study used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method to analyze the monthly rainfall data of Semarang City for the period 2017-2022, because it was able to handle seasonal patterns in the time series data. The best model is determined based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value, while the accuracy of the prediction is measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. Results: Based on the results of the analysis, the best SARIMA model was SARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,0)12 because it produced the smallest AIC value (121.67) and MAPE of 41.59%. This model is used to predict rainfall from January 2023 to December 2025. Conclusion: The SARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,0)12 model is the best model for rainfall forecasting in Semarang City. The results of this study support previous studies that state that the SARIMA method is effective for rainfall data that have high fluctuations and extreme values.
Co-Authors Abdoe, Thorieq Al Abdul Kholil Abdulloh, Muhammad Andi Yoga Fikananta Abdurahman Abdurrahman Abid, Lil Abid Adi Saputra, Erwan Adibah Afiani, Fenti Nur Agus Kristiyanto AH. Maftuh Hafidh Zuhdi Ahda, Zahrah Zakiya Ahmad Mujaki Ainun Athar, Muhammad Akmaludin, Ramdhan Albani, Muhammad Aldias Bahatmaka Alfahmi, Moch Nizam Alfianti, Amalia Forma Alifiansyah, Marcel Bima Amin Mubarok, Amin Amrullah, Ahmad Andika Persada Putera Andri Setiyawan Andri Setiyawan Anjar Mukti Wibowo, Anjar Anjar Mukti Wibowo, Anjar Mukti Aprillia, Tiswa Ardhiansyah, Muhammad Rafi Ardiasnyah, Fikri Arofatul Mahmudah, Dewi Arong, Asuda Arrijah, Hanalinda Kubrus Arseat, Rani Lily Arzuna, Pit Asikin, Aifka Alihati Asri, Sarwi Astino, Bayu Aswiyanto, Aswiyanto Atho'illah, Muhammad Ahsan Atho’illah, Muhammad Ahsan Aurelia, Dinda Aziz, Thoriq azizah, latifah nur Azzah, Alifa Noor Bagus Isnen Bambang Pardoyo Bayu Kristiawan, Ruben Bayu Samudra, Muhammad Berutu, Lolo Ate Karina Cahyanto, Septian Eko Choirin Sutopo, Tuty Mirda Mufidah Dahlan Susilo Dana, Aldi Arma Daniar - Sofeny, Daniar - Darsono, Febri Budi Dessy Ariyanti Djono Djono Djono, D Doloksaribu, Thorino Ivan Dwi Firman Arizudin Dwi Purwanti Efendi, Arman Eko Cahyanto, Septian ENDANG MUSTIKOWATI Ermawati, Asti Fadilla, Fatwa Banatya Faizal Baharuddin Faizhata, Lutfi Pramudya Faizza, Amanda Nur Lailiyatul Feriandi, Yoga Ardian Firdaus, Moh Fachrul Haman Firdhaus Hari Saputro Al Haris Fuadi, Abdul Aziz Habib Ja'far Nuur Hamzah, Fazlena Harsandi, Zaidan Priya Herlambang, Doni Hidayat, Hanif Huda, Muhammad Najihul Ina Ola, Clara Yunita Irfan, Moh. Irfanul chakim, Irfanul Iskandar, Ranu Kartika Wulandari Khofi, Muhammad Ichsan Kholiq, Davit Muhammad Khusnul Fajriyah Kristiawan, Ruben Bayu Kriswanto Kriswanto, Kriswanto Kuncahyo, Wahyu Ady Priyo Laksono, Galih Tri Leksono, Panggah Bowo Lesdantina, Dina Lia Nur Aini Lintang, Carisa Sukma Andi M. Al Haris Marulafau, Arini Sastra Matondang, Zuldi Yariza M. Maulana, Dimas Azhar Mikhael Misa MILASARI, LISA ASTRIA Muchsin Doewes Muhammad Khumaedi Mujaki, Ahmad Murtadho, Kholid Musyono, Ari Dwi Nur Indriawan Nahda , Aida Wafiq Nawang Wulandari, Nawang Nugroho, Ananda Tri Bintang Nur Utami, Annisa Nuraeni Nuraeni Nurhayatun, Agustin Nuryanta, Muhammad Irfan Prabowo, Taufik Sigit Prasetyo, Syaeful Adji Prasojo, Krisna Tri Priyanto, Kaleb Purnomo, Ahmad Setyo Putra, Teguh Dwi Putri Khoirin Nashiroh Putri, Masyru’atul Mukarromah Dearty Ihda Putri, Tamara Kusuma Qowiyuddin, Agus Ramadan, Agung Rizki Ramadhani, Restu Kurnia Ramadhani, Risky Riani, Rindiana Putri Ritonga, Roni Rahmat Rizkia, Nanda Dwi Rizkita, Amanda Putri Rochmad - RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Salamatun Asakdiyah, Salamatun Saputro, Tri Hadi Sari, Lia Agita Sariyatun Septiasari, Sely Mutiara Setyobudi, Mochamad Ari Shofiyah, Istiqomatus Sholahuddin Al Ayubi Silaen, Putri Alisia Silalahi, Natalia Debora Siregar, Syarif Hasayangan Siswara, Hamzah Nata Slamet Widiyanto Soebijantoro Soebijantoro, Soebijantoro Soebijantoro, S Sriweni, Erwina Yulia Supriyadi Supriyadi Susanto, Ferry Andri Syafei, M. Hilman Gumelar Syifa, Salsabilla Khairus Tiku, Rahel Krisnawati TriLaksono, Galih Triyannanto, Endy Umaroh, Susi Tri Umi Rahmawati Utama, Liza Wantika, Ayu Winarko, Chandra Adi Winarsasi, Putri Ayi Wirawan, Briota Akhbar Wulandari, Adetya Putri Arvia Wulandari, Kartika Yudi Hartono, Yudi Yulianto, Muhammad Dwi Zaelani, Alfian Rifky Zainul Abidin