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ADITYA NUGRAHA
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Journal : Journal Integration of Management Studies

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Profitability Impact Of Reducing Coal Lending Exposure: A Scenario Analysis of Bank Permata's Sample Loan Portfolio Nugraha, Aditya; Nainggolan, Yunieta Anny
Journal Integration of Management Studies Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): (Special Issue)
Publisher : Integrasi Sains Media

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58229/jims.v3i2.399

Abstract

The global shift toward a low-carbon economy has intensified regulatory, market, investor, and societal pressures on banks to align lending portfolios with sustainable finance principles. In Indonesia, where coal remains central to the energy mix, banks face a strategic trade-off between sustaining profitability from coal financing and complying with green taxonomy requirements. This study evaluates the profitability implications of the coal sector phase-out for Bank Permata, a leading Indonesian commercial bank, and examines mitigation strategies. The analysis integrates Signaling Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, Stakeholder Theory, and Sustainable Finance to frame the strategic, risk, and stakeholder considerations in portfolio reallocation. A quantitative scenario analysis was applied to four publicly listed coal companies with existing credit facilities at Bank Permata, which were selected as a sample. Using a profit planning approach, financial projections were developed for income statements, balance sheets, and cash flows based on public disclosures and validated assumptions. Results were compared across a baseline (no phase out) and three phase out scenarios, with the most stringent targeting zero exposure by 2030. Findings indicate that phasing out in the short term will affect declines in interest income, driven by reduced loan balances and yields, but highlight long-term benefits through reduced regulatory non-compliance risk and lower reputational exposure to transition risks. Potential losses can also be mitigated by reallocating to green taxonomy-aligned sectors with competitive yields. The research offers a replicable scenario-based modeling framework for quantifying the financial effects of coal phase-out strategies in emerging market banking. It underscores the importance of strategic portfolio realignment, diversification into sustainable sectors, and strengthened ESG risk assessments to maintain profitability while supporting national and global sustainability goals.
Co-Authors Abdul Gani Jamora Nasution Adi Nugroho Agus Haris Abadi Agus Mulyana Anita Suharyani Ansor, M. Daffa Rizky Ardianto, Irwan Ardiyanti, Putri Arie Firmansyah Ariyanto Aryandha, Pradita Nindya Awari, Khairul Amin Azhis Sholeh Buchori Aziz, Naufal Abdul Budi Priyanto Candra Wijaya, Candra Cherie Bhekti Pribadi, Cherie Bhekti Dedy Kurniady Dinyar Supiadi Widjaya, Dinyar Supiadi Fadillah, Muhammad Rafiq Fathoni, Alfan Fatonah, Gina Siti Nurkarimah Fauzy, Reno Ryzky Fayu Karmila Febriana, Hanifah Lutfiah Hamdan, Ahmad Hasanah, Laila Ummul Herdiany, Hapsari Dyah Jalaludin Jalaludin Jimi, Jimi Josua Parulian Hutajulu Juhandana, Madya Julia, Nisa Khomsin Khomsin, Khomsin Komariyati Kristian Widya Wicaksono Kurniasari, Ni Gusti Ayu Ketut Lanang Riyadi Maolana Yusuf Masri Bin Ardin Maulana, Restu Fuji Akbar Mekwih, Mekwih Muhammad Rafly Muntashir, Muhammad Farhan Al Mustopa, Nabila Alia Netti Aryani Nugroho, Yohanes Nurazizah, Asyfa Siti Nurliza Nurliza Perwita Kurniawan Pratama, Adhya Pratama, Akmal Putra Pratomo, Danar Guruh Pribadi, Cheri Bhekti Putranti, Latifah Putri, Varisa Disvarika Rafie, Rafie Rezani, Rivandra RINI SUNDARI, RINI Riyadi, Lanang Roni Suhartono Safira, Zahra Santoso, Dimas Sartoyo, Millenino Bergas Satya, Royys Bagja Rizky Sekarani Damana Putri, Ayu Seto, Agnes Sholichah, Zuhrotus Simanungkalit, Karina O. Siregar, Alfin Solehah, Anisa Siti Nurjanah solihah titin sumanti Sri Soenarti Sukendi Sukendi Susi Susanti Susilawati, Susilawati Syahrudin Syahrudin, Syahrudin Syarifah, Salsa Sabila Tabun, Putri Sriariani Teguh Hariyanto, Teguh Ujang Suherman Untari, Rustina Utama, Gede Utomo, Vidi Wijaya, Yannita Yudi Sukmayadi Yuliya, Denisa Yunieta Anny Nainggolan, Yunieta Anny Yusnarida Eka Nizmi