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Agussalim, Agussalim
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Journal : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer

 1 
Peramalan Tren Penjualan Menu Restoran Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average Apriliani, Aulia; Zainuddin, Hazriani; Agussalim, Agussalim; Hasanuddin, Zulfajri
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 7 No 6: Desember 2020
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.2020722732

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan tren penjualan menu pada restoran guna membantu pihak pengelola restoran dalam menentukan dan memberikan rekomendasi pengelolaan stok menu. Peramalan dilakukan dengan mengimplementasikan metode single moving average pada data transaksi penjualan selama periode 15 bulan, yakni bulan Januari-Desember 2018 dan Januari-Maret 2019 untuk menghasilkan ramalan bulanan dan harian. Total sampel data latih yang diolah sebanyak 10.515 record yang merupakan data transaksi penjualan pada bulan Januari-Desember tahun 2018, serta 2.246 record data bulan Januari-Maret 2019 sebagai data uji (untuk menguji akurasi ramalan). Hasil pengujian hasil ramalan bulanan untuk Top-10 menu menghasilkan perhitungan MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 4% yang berarti tingkat akurasi sangat baik, yakni sebesar 96%. Sedangkan pengujian hasil ramalan harian menghasilkan MAPE yang cukup tinggi yaitu sebesar 39.2%, mengindikasikan nilai akurasi yang cukup rendah, yakni 60.8%. Meskipun akurasi untuk ramalan harian, masih rendah namun hasil penelitian ini dapat memberikan gambaran kepada pengelola hotel tentang rentang minimum-maksimal stok yang perlu disiapkan untuk menu tertentu pada hari-hari tertentu. Untuk memperoleh akurasi prediksi harian yang lebih akurat, penelitian ini akan dilanjutkan dengan mencoba metode lain serta menambah jumlah data latih. AbstractThis research aims to forecast sales trend of a restaurant menus to help the restaurant management in determaining and providing recommendations for managing stocks. Forecasting was performed by applying the single moving average towards fifteen months recorded data transaction, namely January to December 2018, and Januari to March 2019 to establish monthly and daily forecast. Total data training was 10.515 recods data transaction obtained from Januari to December 2018, while data testing was 2.246 record data transaction within Januari to March 2019. Result for montly forecast shows, that the average accuracy reached 96% (MAPE 4%) indicating the forecast is almost perfect. While, for daily forecast the average accuracy is only 60.8% (MAPE 39,2%) indicating that the forecast is less accurate. Although, accuracy of the daily forecast is considered less accurate, the result still can be used by the restaurant management to figure-out minimum and maximum amount of stock to be prepared for certain menus in certain days. 
Co-Authors A, Denisa Septalian Abdul Rezha Efrat Najaf Adam Rachman, Muhammad Adila, Ma’ratul Adrikna, Maulaya Ahmad Firman ahmad yani Ahmad, Aini Ahsari, Dwi Ahmadil Akram, Mhd. Al Arif, M. Anam Alam, Fajar Indra Nur Alam, Jaya Ali Agus Amin, Muhammad Rijal Masyhur Anam, Moh. Sofi'ul Andi Detti Yunianti Andreas Nugroho Sihananto Anggraini Puspita Sari APRILIANI, AULIA Araf Octaviana, Monica Exsanni Arifani, Kahpi Baiquni Arifin, Askan Artiyanto, Artiyanto As, Nur Ichzan Asep Suherman Astuti Arif Atmaja, Ferdy Atmansyah, Lutfi Awaliyah, Dien Putri Bakri, Rina Asrini Basuki Rahmat Masdi Siduppa Burhanuddin Burhanuddin Burhanuddin*, Burhanuddin Dai, Herlina Desi Maulida Dewi, Risna Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas Efendi, Annisa Enika, Popya Erawan, Tiar Erlangga Wicaksono, Dewa Faikul Umam Farhan, Ilham Febrianti, Liska Fitri Ana Wati, Seftin Fitriani, Besse Gandini, Aulia Gusmiaty Gusmiaty, Gusmiaty Halimah Larekeng, Siti Hamdan Hamdan Hamrullah, Hamrullah Haq, Zainul Haruna, Ilham Hasanuddin, Zulfajri Hazriani, Hazriani Henni Endah Wahanani Heriyanto , Heriyanto Herlina, Besse Heru Prasetyo Hikmah, Muh. Syawal Humaeroah, Humaeroah Humairah, Sayyidah Husnul Khatimah Imam Mukhlis IRA TASKIRAWATI Irsyadi, Muhammad Haidir Iswanto Iswanto Jalil, Nurlina Kaffah, Muhammad Silmi Kalsum Kalsum Kamaluddin, Laode Amijaya Khowajah, Siti khusnul khotimah Kurniawan, Muhammad ‘Ahdi Lantong, Muhammad Adri Lestari, Rachmatika Lismawati, Lismawati Mappatoba, Andi Mardiah Mardiah Marpiansa, Muhammad Hafizh Metasari, Sherly Mirdan, Moh. Mugi Hartoyo Muhammad Hibrian Wiwi Muhammad Husaini Assauwab Muhammad Iqbal Mukmin, Agus Mulia, Radinka Frisia Mustofa Mustofa Mutmainah, Ainun Muzakkir Muzakkir Najma, Leilani Nodi Marefanda Novita Sari Nugraha, Rahmat Nur, Muh. Nur, Suaib Nurcaya Nurcaya Nuringsih, Nuringsih Nurmiaty, Nurmiaty Nur’iva, Muhammad Irvan P, Made Hanindia Pintarko, Dody Pornama, Angga Prastiyo, Andi Pujiastuti, Rr. Sri Endang Purwandari, Elce Puspa Sari, Puspa Putra, Handie Pramana Putri, Depi Rahayu Ada, Sesilia Tiara Rahayu Rahayu Ramadana, Tariza Ramadhinata, Muhammad Alfian Sendhy Reboldera, Melanie Rizka Hadiwiyanti Sabir Sabir Safinatunnajah, Divane Infonya Safrida Safrida Sahriyanti Saad Said, Rahmat Said, Sitaman Salam, Agung Surya Sri Widiyati, Sri Suaeb, Suaeb Sucahyo Heriningsih Suci Rohayati Suhasman, Suhasman Sultan Suhab Suparni suparni Supratman Supratman, Supratman Supriaddin, Nofal Suryaningsih Suryaningsih Susrama Mas Diyasa, I Gede SUTRISNO, ARIS Syahidah, Syahidah SYAMSU ALAM Syarif Syarif Tirtayasa Putra Pangestu, Kidung Titin Suheri, Titin Tohamba, Citra Prasiska Trimulato Trimulato, Trimulato Trisna, Nila Tsuru, Masato Tusa’diyah, Nurhidayah Veni Nella Syahputri, Veni Nella Viet Ha, Nguyen wahyuni wahyuni Wahyuni, Eka Dyar Wardi Wardi Wibowo, Nur Cahyo Yuana, Indira Yunan Alghifari Zamri, Mohd