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Analysis The Effect Of Volatility On Potential Losses Mutual Fund Investments Using The ES-GARCH Method Pamungkas, Abram Chandra Aji; Subartini, Betty; Susanti, Dwi
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol 5, No 3 (2024)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v%vi%i.594

Abstract

Investing in mutual funds has become a popular choice for investor who looking to participate in the capital markets with more diversified risk. However, the success of mutual fund investments depends on investors understanding the potential losses and opportunities that may arise during the investment period. Analyzing the risk of mutual fund investments is fundamental in helping investors comprehend potential losses. Therefore, research is conducted to understand potential losses by estimating asset price volatility and determining the maximum possible losses. The Expected Shortfall (ES) method proves useful in measuring downside risk and extreme loss potential in investments, but it is less effective in addressing nonlinear trends and the complexity of volatility patterns. Hence, a combination of the Expected Shortfall (ES) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methods is employed to measure the risk of mutual fund investments. The research findings indicate that volatility has a positive impact on Value at Risk (VaR), and the potential maximum losses (ES) increase with higher volatility, indicating a greater risk.
Value-at-Risk Estimation Method Based on Normal Distribution, Logistics Distribution and Historical Simulation Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sukono; Verrany, Maria Jatu
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 1 No. 1 (2020): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), March 2020
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v1i1.19

Abstract

This paper discusses the risk analysis of single stock and portfolio returns. The stock data analyzed are BNI, BRI shares and portfolio. After obtaining a stock return, value at risk (VaR) will be estimated using the normal distribution approach, logistic distribution, and historical simulation. From the VaR results, a backtest is then conducted to test the validity of the model and the backtest results for BNI and the portfolio produce a smaller QPS on the historical simulation method compared to the normal distribution and logistics distribution approaches. This shows that BNI VaR and VaR portfolios with the historical simulation method are more consistent than other methods. While the backtest results for BRI produced the smallest QPS on the normal distribution approach compared to the logistical distribution and historical simulation approaches. This shows that the VaR BRI using the normal distribution approach is more consistent than the other methods.
Value-at-Risk Estimation with Normal Distribution Approach on Stock Return of BBNI and BBRI Susanti, Dwi
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 3 No. 4 (2022): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2022
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v3i4.78

Abstract

This paper discusses risk analysis on a single stock return. Stock data analyzed are shares of BBNI and BBRI. The method used is Value-at-Risk with a normal distribution approach. The steps are, after obtaining stock returns, then the value-at-risk (VaR) is estimated using a normal distribution approach. Then a back-test is carried out to measure the performance of risk measures. The results of the analysis show that VaR for BBNI and BBRI produces a small QPS close to zero. This shows that VaR with the normal distribution approach is more consistent and can be used to measure risk for BBNI and BBRI. 
Determination of Microinsurance Premiums in Cattle Farms Based on Protein Content Index and Milk Production Using the Black-Scholes Method Rahadi, Fabiyan; Susanti, Dwi; Halim, Nurfadhlina Binti Abdul
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), June 2023
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v4i2.227

Abstract

Micro insurance is an insurance product that is intended for low-income people with features and administration that are simple, easy to obtain, economical prices and immediate settlement of compensation. Cattle business insurance is an effort to protect breeders in event of a risk of death and loss of cattle, this insurance product is a protection against worries the burden of a large premium. This study aims to calculate the premium price using the Black-Scholes method. In this study, a correlation analysis was conducted to determine the influence the protein content on cow’s milk production. Then, modelling the protein content using ARIMA-GARCH and determining the premium using the Black-Scholes method. The results showed that the protein content of milk in cow’s milk production has a positive correlation. Protein content follows the ARIMA(1,0,0)-GARCH(1) model. Based on the results of the analysis it can be concluded that the bigger protein content in milk, the higher premium that needs to paid. 
Calculating Premium Credibility Using the Buhlmann-Straub Modelwith Nonparametric Assessment Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sokono
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol. 1 No. 1 (2020): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), February 2020
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v1i1.15

Abstract

When an insurance company calculates the premium it will divides the policy holders into groups. The division is considered based on risk level in each group. The problem is then to devise a way of combining the experience risk of the group with the experience of the individual risk to calculate the premium, so then Credibility Theory provides a solution to this problem.This script discuss about calculation of credibility premium use Buhlmann-Straub Model with nonparametric estimation to the aggregate claim amount data set within few years observation in some group of policy holders in  general insurance. By using credibility theory we can calculate the value of credibility factor and credibility premium or future premium. The value of premium credibility is calculated from only one group of policyholders from the previous year's data. For better value of premium credibility, data with more experience years and the policyholder group better reflect the total loss value during the observation year.The result of this calculation are credibility factor per group, average credibility premium per members in group and credibility premium total for the last year for each group. We can obtain total losses and total premium which surprisingly equal. 
Application of Structural Equation Model to Analyze Factors Affecting Financial Planning After Retirement Khairi, M. Ihsan; Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sukono
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol. 2 No. 3 (2021): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), August 2021
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v2i3.87

Abstract

Retirement is something that every working individual will experience. Retirement according to the Big Indonesian Dictionary (KBBI) is not working anymore because the term of office has finished. A person who has retired usually has the right to a pension fund. After retirement, the individual's income will decrease, but the necessities of life can increase. In order to still be able to meet the needs of life after retirement, it is necessary to have financial planning after retirement. There are several factors that influence financial planning after retirement, including income, attitude and culture. Income is an important issue in financial planning. One thing to consider carefully when planning for retirement and setting aside funds for that purpose is the estimate of the amount of money needed to have the expected quality of life in retirement. Attitude towards retirement planning is an internal psychological condition that is influenced by positive or negative assessments related to retirement planning. Cultural differences will result in different financial plans between individuals. In this study, the Structural Equation Model will be used to analyze the factors that influence financial planning after retirement for teachers in several schools in Tanah Datar Regency, West Sumatra. This study uses quantitative methods using a questionnaire as a data collection tool. Based on the collected questionnaires, simulations were carried out to obtain 170 data randomly. To facilitate data analysis, the AMOS application will be used. The results showed that these three factors had a significant effect on financial planning after retirement. The most influential factor on financial planning after retirement is culture with a parameter value of 0.639.
Determination of the Contribution of the Reserve Fund for Flood Natural Disaster Management in the DKI Jakarta Region Nugraha, Dwita Safira; Susanti, Dwi; Sukono, Sukono
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol. 2 No. 4 (2021): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), November 2021
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v2i4.88

Abstract

Floods are natural disasters that are quite difficult to predict. As a result, there are many losses both materially, morally and even to the point of taking lives. In Indonesia, one of the areas that experience flooding the most is DKI Jakarta. In early 2020, flooding was the biggest cause of loss in the region. The role of the people of DKI Jakarta is very important in collecting contributions to the reserve fund for disaster emergency response. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the amount of reserve fund contributions for community-based flood disaster management in the DKI Jakarta area based on the Collective Risk Model method approach, using Poisson and Log-Normal distributions, including parameter estimates  and (μ,σ) , resulting in an estimate of the expected magnitude of the risk of loss. Based on these expectations, the contribution amount can be calculated using the Individual and Collective Risk Model. The result of this research is the contribution of funds which is calculated based on the principle of expected value
K Keterampilan Berpikir Komputasi Peserta Didik Dalam Memecahkan Masalah PISA Ditinjau Dari Gaya Belajar: Keterampilan Berpikir Komputasi Peserta Didik Dalam Memecahkan Masalah PISA Ditinjau Dari Gaya Belajar Susanti, Dwi; Susanto, Susanto; Suwito, Abi; Firmansyah, Frenza Fairuz
De Fermat : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan, Universitas Balikpapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36277/defermat.v7i2.2236

Abstract

Tujuan dilakukannya penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan keterampilan berpikir komputasi peserta didik dalam memecahkan soal  masalah  Program for International Student Assesment (PISA) konten geometri. Subjek penelitian dipilih berlandaskan hasil angket gaya belajar VAK (Visual, Auditori, Kinestetik) dari 28 peserta didik kelas IX yang berusia 15 tahun. Kemudian peserta didik dikelompokkan  kedalam tiga jenis gaya belajar yaitu visual, auditori dan kinestetik. Dari setiap kelompok dipilih satu peserta didik sebagai sabjek penelitian dengan kemampuan matematika yang sama. Penelitian dilakukan dengan memberikan subjek satu masalah berupa soal PISA dengan konten geometri, kemudian dilanjutnkan dengan dilakukannya wawancara  oleh peneliti dengan subjek. Hasil dari pemecahan masalah soal PISA dan wawancara lalu dianalisis menggunakan metode deskriptif dengan pendekatan kualitatif. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa  subjek dengan gaya belajar visual  dapat  memenuhi indikator  keterampilan berpikir komputasi yaitu dekomposisi dan pengenalan pola. Namaun pada indikator berpikir algoritma, generalisasi dan abstraksi subjek memenuhi namun kurang tepat. Subjek dengan gaya belajar Auditori hanya dapat memenuhi dua indikator keterampilan berpikir komputasi yaitu dekomposisi dan pengenalan pola. Sedangkan subjek dengan gaya belajar kinestetik dapat memenuhi semua indikator keterampilan berpikir komputasi yaaitu dekomposisi, pengenalan pola, berpikir algoritma sera generalisasi dan abstraksi
Analysis of factors related to unmet need for family planning in Bantul, D.I. Yogyakarta Lutfiyati, Afi; Susanti, Dwi
MEDIA ILMU KESEHATAN Vol 13 No 1 (2024): Media Ilmu Kesehatan
Publisher : Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30989/mik.v13i1.1344

Abstract

Background: Unmet need for family planning refers to women who wish to delay or limit births but didn’t use contraceptive methods to achieve them. Factors related were marital status, place of residence, and access to health services. Occupational factors, sources of information, husband’s support for family planning, and discussions about family planning with husbands were also related to unmet need. Objective: To identify that most influence unmet need for family planning in Bantul District, D.I. Yogyakarta.Methods: Research design using a cross-sectional approach with a cluster random sampling technique, namely 331 couples of reproductive age in Wonokromo I and Wonokromo II villages. The research instrument was a questionnaire. The results were analyzed using Chi-square test and multivariate with logistic regression.Results: Chi-square test on variables of knowledge about family planning p=0.406, access to family planning services with p-value=0.005, sources of information p=0.001, discussion of family planning with husbands p=0.001, and husband’s support in family planning with p=0.001. The OR value of discussing contraception with the husband were 6.3.Conclusion: The most dominant factor related to unmet need for family planning in Bantul district, D.I. Yogyakarta were a discussion of family planning with husbands
Low Birth Weight as Risk Factor of Pneumonia Child in Primary Health Care of Surabaya Puspamaniar, Vania Ayu; Setyoningrum, Retno Asih; Susanti, Dwi
JUXTA: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Kedokteran Universitas Airlangga Vol. 10 No. 2 (2019): Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Kedokteran Universitas Airlangga
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (409.139 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/juxta.V10I22019.61-63

Abstract

Introduction: Pneumonia is an infectious disease attacking lower respiratory tract. It has one of the highest number of world's mortality and morbidity in children. Many risk factors are suspected as the reasons why the disease still occur a lot. One of the major risk factors is birth weight which makes their immune system immature and easier to get various complications and infections. The aim of this study is to analyze birth weight as risk factor of pneumonia in children under 5 years old. Methods: This was an analytical study with case control design. This study was held in Primary Health Care of Tambakrejo, from August to December 2017. The sample size was 22 respondents for each case and control group. Technique of sampling was total sampling. Secondary data were collected by medical records at the health center and Kartu Menuju Sehat (KMS). Data were entered into Microsoft Excel then statistically analyzed using IBM SPSS 22. The data were analyzed by Fisher's Exact Test.Results: During August to December 2017, there were 22 respondents which were diagnosed with pneumonia in Tambakrejo Primary Health Center. Two of them (4.55%) had low birth weight and the rests had normal birth weight (95.45%). The analyze result stated that there is no significant correlation between pneumonia incidence and birth weight. Conclusion: Birth weight is one of pneumonia risk factors without significant impact.
Co-Authors A. Handjoko Permana Abdul Rahman Abi Suwito Abul Hasani, Rofi Adhy Firdaus Afif, Farid Agung Sosiawan Agustin, Rekha Yulia Ahmad Muhammad Fuadi, Ahmad Muhammad Aini, Fadhilah Ainul Fitri, Zaida Airohmah, Yesi Al Banna, Muhammad Hasan Alisa, Nur Alkhoroni, Panji Ambarita, Charles Fransiskus Andayani, Nyoman Etika Andayani, Sri Astutik Andi Taufiq Umar Andiyani, Intan Andriani, Cindy anggi prantika, Sindi Anjan, Aulia Annisa, Nenden Nur Aprila, Nur Amalia Aprilawati, Dwi Apriliani, Nanda Putri Ardiansyah, Galang Arifandi, Yoga Akbar Aristina, Renny Armyne, Amara Destania Astuti, Wella Atika Atika Ayu, Diana Puspita Az Zahra, Dita Aulia Badi’ah, Atik Baihaqi, Rifky Ahmad Barus, Febriana Krisdayanti Betty Subartini Bima, Ralvinzah Cahya Satriya Budhi Mustika, I Made Budiawan , Muhammad Ardi Budiawan, Muhammad Ardi Buferianto, M Razi Christantie Effendy Dari, Tri Ulan Davin, Samuel Dewanti, Anggita Annisa Wahyu Dewi Chusniasih Dewi Silaban, Eni Priska Dewi, Tiara Nilawati Dian Kristiana Diana Lestari, Diana Diandra Rizki Isrohmaniar Dias Utami, Khristin Dwi Yati Dwihantoro, Prihatin Dzaki, Fikra Fadhillah Eka Yulianti ekawati Elsyana, Vida Endah Meilana Endah Puji Astuti, Endah Puji Enjelia, Lisa Ernawati Ernawati Ervana, Lina Esmar Budi EVELYN EVELYN Fadila, Vivin Dwi Fakhira, Avisha Farha, Saniya Fatah, Rizki Amelia Febrianti Femei Purnamasari, Femei Fira, Dilli Salsa Firmansyah, Frenza Fairuz Firmanul Catur Wibowo Fitriana, Deva Rizkia Fitriani, Dinda Ismi Florentina Sustini Fredinan Yulianda Gatra, Anggel Alba Ghufron, David Maulana Gunawan Santoso Hadi Nasbey Halim, Nurfadhlina Binti Abdul Haliza, Nur Hamid, Hariaty Handayani, Afifa Dwi Haris Suhendar Hasan, Ferisa Nuriasyifa Hasyim, Diah Mukminatul Haya, Aqella Fadya Herlina Herlina Napitupulu Hermansyah Hermansyah Hermansyah Hidayah, Najwa Nur Hidayanto, Agung Ridwan Hutapea, Yohana Vita Melodi Hutasoit, Masta Ida Nursanti Ikramina, Mahreshaibati Bilqis Inah Indirayani, Triana Khairi, M. Ihsan Khairiah Khairiah Khira, Nafisa Khristina Dias Utami Khumaira, Aimena Salma Kunarfian, Krisna Artur Labitta, Kirana Fara Latifah Susilowati Liauwnardo, Albertus Alarik Linda Yanti Lintang Muliawanti Lubis, Rita Mahdalena Luhtitisari, Aurelia Rahma Niken Lukita, Salsabila Arum Lutfiyati, Afi Mahaputra, A. V. Maharani, Asthie Zaskia Manggar Sari, Arlyn Maraya, Nisrina Salsabila Marcellia, Selvi Marpaung, Maynisa Naomi Matondang, Khairani Maulana, Slamet Miftahorrozi, Miftahorrozi Muh Fauzi, Muh Muh Iqbal Muhammad Halim, Muhammad Muslichah Muslichah Nafisah, Najmah Nelly Astuti Ningsih, Jayanti Eka Sari Ningsih, Mulati Nofita, Nofita Noviantari, Ika Noviyanti, Fadhila Nugraha, Dwita Safira Nuradiyah, Fanny Nurhasanah, Gina Nurika, Marlinda Nursamira, Nursamira Octavia, Selvia Oktavia, Aisya Billa Chery Oktavia Ola, Sania Latek Pamungkas, Abram Chandra Aji Pardede, Ester Pendeko, Pendeko Perangin angin, Martianus Praditya, Miftakhul Wahyu Ragil Pramita, Anggi Pranaya, Azhraa Qinan Primadiamanti, Annisa Pudji Lestari Purnamaningsih, Nur Aini Purwono Hendradi Puspamaniar, Vania Ayu Putri Amalia Putri Utami, Desi Putri Utami, Desi Putri, Melita Regina Putri, Ria Desta R, Nurmala Rahadi, Fabiyan Rahma, Indah Eliza Rahmadhisa, Nayra Pavita Rahmatullah, Ivan RAHMAWATI, SEPTI Rahmayanti, Arini Rai Saputri, Gusti Ayu Ramadhana, Ramadhana Ramadhani, Herlina Ramadhani, Muhammad Raufa, Raufa Reni Merta Kusuma Reny Wijayanti Restinah, Anjar Retno Asih Setyoningrum Retno Mawarti, Retno Revanti, Anggun Triana Riaman Riaman Rosdiana, Anggita Cahya RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Rusdiani, Nurtina Irsad S, Septi Nurhaliza Sabrina, Putri Marsha Safitri, Nita Dwi Safitri, Rahmawati Sagita, Putri Dwi Sagitawening, Hardhini Saksana, Joned C. SANI SUSANTI Saputra, Jumadil Saputri, Gusti Ayu Rai Satiti, Ainur Rafiqah Sayekti, Tyaswara Endah Setyabudi, Rendy Siagian, Irma Siburian, Claranita Silferia, Silferia Silvia Ari Agustina Sinaga, Primawati Siti Fatimah Soetadi Waskito SRI SETIYARINI, SRI Sri Untari Suatin, Ricka Milla Sugiono, Muhamad Suhandoyo, Tri Sukono Sukono Sukono, Sokono Sumiati Sumiati Sunarsih, Eka Suranto Suranto Surantoro Surantoro Suratno Surtini, Surtini Susanti, Yuli Eri Susanto Susanto Suwarno Suwarno Swannjo, Julian Benedict Syahara, Tjut Afrieda Syahla, Raynita Syarifah, Indi Mazaya Targanski, Constantia Lidwina Teguh Budi Prayitno Tunggadewi, Amelia Amanda Tutik Tutik Ulfa, Ade Maria Upik Rahma Fitri, Upik Rahma Utami, Kristina Dias Utomo, Aulia Putri Verrany, Maria Jatu Vina Serevina Wachyuni, Mhella Nia Wahyuni, Anis Wan Asrida Warih Angesti P, Warih Angesti Widia Rahayu, Setia Widyawati, Eka Windayani, Wulan Tri Wiryono, Karfadimas Bima Putra Yanita Trisetiyaningsih, Yanita Yati, Dwi Yati, Dwi Yudhy Dharmawan Yulistianingsih, Desti Yundari, Yundari Yunita, Arum Yusticia, Ica Zahrani, Andieta Zulfikar Bagus Pambuko