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Journal : JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING

Forecasting Export Values in West Sumatra Using Backpropagation Neural Network Rahmawati, Desi; Martha, Zamahsary
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): February 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v10i1.12199

Abstract

Export value is an important indicator in supporting regional economic growth. However, its movement tends to be volatile and non-linear, making it difficult to forecast using conventional statistical methods such as ARIMA. This study aims to forecast the export value of West Sumatra Province using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the Backpropagation algorithm. The data used consist of monthly export values from January 2006 to October 2025 obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of West Sumatra Province. The data were normalized and modified using the rolling window method, then divided into training and testing datasets. Several network architectures were evaluated through a trial-and-error process with variations in the number of neurons in the hidden layer. The best model was achieved with the BPNN(12,12,1) architecture, yielding a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.0236 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 25.31%. The results indicate that the model is capable of capturing non-linear patterns and reasonably following the trend of the actual data. The selected model was then used to perform short-term forecasting of export values for the period from November 2025 to March 2026. The findings demonstrate that the Backpropagation Neural Network algorithm is effective for forecasting export values in West Sumatra Province. This study contributes theoretically by enriching the application of artificial intelligence in regional economic forecasting and practically by supporting data-driven policy formulation for export strategies in West Sumatra.
Co-Authors A Halim Abbas, Dirvi Surya Afifah, Rizqi Afriani Afriani Agusmal Aisah, Novi Akbar Nur Azmi Al Afik Albert Efendi Pohan Alfiatunnimah, Vivi Alianur, Mudfar Alpino Susanto Angel Zeiromardalina Ghahar Anggraeni, Relita Ani Purwati Anindhyta, Chyta Anita Agustina Anwari, Irma Apreriri Cahyani Aprilia Dian Evasari Ariyanti, Putri Novira Aroningtias, Yulia Asriani Bakar, Noor Raudhiah Binti Abu Bawor, Edmundus Bondan Subagyo Cecep Kustandi Choiruddin, Choiruddin Choirunnisa, Nadia Lutfi Cipto Wahyuning Utama Cut, Musyaffa Dian Respati Rindang Diantha Maryam Andyni DIRGANTARA WICAKSONO Djenny Sasmita Dwiyanto Djoko Pranowo Eis Naeni Eko Santoso Eko Santoso EKO SANTOSO Eni Widhajati Fadhilah, Harum Fadholi, Muhamad FADHOLI, MUHAMMAD Fanisyah, Elsah Fata, Abiyu Fathurrahaman, Iqbal Febriani Dwi Sari Febriani, Aisyah Firman Muntaqo Giantama, M Shepna Giantama, Mohamad Shepna Heru Santosa Hustia, Anggreany Indradewa, Rhian Isnaini Asiati, Diah Jalaludin Muhammad Akbar Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Kamarodin Abas Abdulkarim Karnati, Neti Kayen, Hazrat Shah Khusnul Abdul Qodar Romadhoni Kurniawaty Fitri Kurniawaty Kurniawaty Kus Eddy Sartono Latifatul Isroiyah Latifatul Isro’iyah Layla, Sheffany Nur Lestari, Fauziah Dwi Linda Ika Mayasari, Linda Ika Listyasari, Winda Dewi Lona Chinsia Alfattama M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Mahendra Putra, Bagoes Maheswari, Jenar Mardiyanti, Fitri Margiyati Marlena Marlena Marlena Masduki Masduki Ahmad Masduki Masduki Matin Matin, Matin Mestika, Gelar Gelora Mokhamad Eldon Mubik Ihtajuddin Hammas Muhammad Al Mighwar Muhammad Fadholi Muhammad Faizal Abd. Ghani Muhammad Ikhsan Muhammad Syaifuddin Muhammad Takdir Muhammad ‘Afif Nibros Qolbi Muharsono Mulyani Mulyani Mustika, Adelia Nabah Lestari, Winda Nabilah, Siti Najamudin Najamudin Netti Karnati Nurani Nurani Nurani Nurbela, Intan Nurdiani, Tina Nurhattati Oktavia, Eka Pogo, Tajuddin Pratiwi, Iqmatul Purwana E.S., Dedi R. Madhakomala Rahma, Fatia Rahmad Khodari Rahmayanti, Dwi Reny Trisusanti Retno Wulandari Reza Ardianto Riana Mashar Rifai, Aldi Bagus Risdayanti, Fani Risky Al Ahli Rizfi, Muhammad Robby, Dimas Kurnia Rugaiyah Sadri, Nove Salsabila, Syauqiah Samsuddin Siregar Sanola, Maria Sawal Sartono, Sawal Shalehah, Nur Azizatun Shofiyulloh, Mohammad Siti Nurjannah Siti Zulaikha Siti Zulaikha Solihin, Riza Ramadhani Soraya, Evitha Sri Sutrismi Sugara, Zidni Sundari Sundari Supadi SURYANTI syafrizal Syamsiar, Syamsiar Syifauzzuhrah, Nabillah Tabitha, Daffa Takdir, Muh. Tanti Azizah Sujono Tarmidzi Teguh Trianung Djoko Susanto Tubagus Pamungkas Tuti Nurhaningsih Umar Umar Unifah Rosyidi, Unifah Wahyuningrum, Dewi Ariyani Weny Wibowo, Finantyo Eddy Widhajati, Eni wijayanti, octy Wiyarti, Sekar Wulan, Cinta Yanti, Darma Yulistia Devi Zainal Maarif Zamahsary Martha