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Journal : Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications

ESTIMASI PARAMETER MODEL REGRESI LINIER DENGAN PENDEKATAN METODE BAYESIAN Surianti; Hikmah; Rahmawati
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Volume 3, Nomor 2, 2021
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (229.006 KB) | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v3i2.1364

Abstract

The method used to estimate the regression parameters in this study is the Bayes method. The steps in estimating the parameters of the linear regression model using the Bayes method are to determine the Likelihood function from the normal distribution density function, determine the Prior Non-Informative distribution from a normal distribution, then look for the Posterior distribution by switching the Prior distribution with the Likelihood function.Writing this thesis aims to determine the estimation of the parameters of the linear regression model with the Bayesian method approach. From the regression model generated by the OLS method, it was identified that there was one Outlier data. Outlier is a factor that influences parameter estimation in linear regression model. A model will be shown in an example data case by comparing the results of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using R and the results of the Bayesian method using WinBUGS. It can be seen that the MSE value obtained from the Bayesian Method estimation is smaller than the MSE value obtained from the OLS Method estimate. The Mean Square Error (MSE) value obtained from the estimation of the OLS Method is 0.8469 while the Mean Square Error (MSE) value obtained from the estimation of the Bayesian MCMC Method is 0.3723. This shows that the Bayesian MCMC method is much better than the OLS method.
ANALISIS MODEL MATEMATIKA SEITR PADA PENYAKIT CACAR AIR Musarifa; Hikmah; Fardinah
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Volume 3, Nomor 2, 2021
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (359.917 KB) | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v3i2.1372

Abstract

Chickenpox is an infectious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. This infectious disease generally occurs not only in children but also attack adults and the nature of its transmission is so capidly. The purpose of this research is to build a model and analyze the SEITR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Treatment-Recovered) mathematical model. The results obtained from the SEITR model have two equilibrium points, namely disease-free and endemic. Model analysis was performed using the Routh-Horwitz criteria to identify the eigenvalues. Based on the results of the stability analysis that the disease-free equilibrium point were stable if the condition for the relationship between parameters were met. At the end of the study,on the simulation that has been carried out it is found that this disease will when is 0,58 and this disease will be epidemic when is 2,80.
ANALISIS MODEL MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT ISPA Nurfadilah; Hikmah; Fardinah
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Volume 3, Nomor 1, 2021
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (248.85 KB) | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v3i1.1373

Abstract

Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) is an infectious disease caused by bacteria and an unhealthy environment. The number of sufferers of this disease tends to increase and expand. The purpose of this study was to construct a mathematical model of the SEHAR epidemic (Suspectible-Exposed-Infected-Asthma-Recovered), analyze the stability of the equilibrium point and simulate the model. The results obtained are the SEHAR mathematical model for the spread of ARI disease which produces a disease-free equilibrium point and an endemic equilibrium point from the model. The method used is the stability analysis of the model using the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria to identify the characteristics of the eigenvalues. From the results of the stability analysis, it is found that the disease-free equilibrium point Eo and the endemic equilibrium point E1 are stable if the conditions for the relationship between parameters are met. At the end of the study, a simulation model was given using the Maple application
Co-Authors Achmad Adriyanto Adelia R Adetami Akmal, Yenina Alvian Beku Rina Andriana Deku Angga Frananda Anselmus B. Muda Ardinda P Arfah, Hajriana Arfiany Ariffianti, Indah Aris Mardiono Asmal May Asrial Astari Aurilia D Baiq Desthania Prathama Baiq Ertin Helmida Bima, Fajar Bobi Berkat Iman Zebua Caecilia Sri Haryanti Cahya, Wulan Citta, Andi Batary Dame Natalia Ambarita Dea R Desy Natalia Kamlasi Dominggus Tena Ate Dunifa, La Dwi Putri Ariyani Eka P Eko Nursalim Erna Hastuti Fahmi Hafid Fardinah Fariantin, Erviva Ferry Fernando Fitri Khoiriyah Parinduri Galuh Ratna Mutia Ghalib, Mukhtar Gita Astria Gita Sugiarti Guntur Suryo Putro Haeril Kurniawan Wardhana Hapidin, Hapidin Hardono, Ichtineza Halida Heni Hernawati Hernita Holyness Nurdin Singadimedja I MADE SUARDANA Ibadurrahman Ida Wijayanti Igo B.D, Abdullah Indra, Meylani Irenia I Isma Azis Riu Jafar Ahiri Jainuddin H. Tajudin Jakobis J. Messakh Kelvin Ketut M. Kuswara Khusnul Khotimah Kisnawati, Baiq Kurniati Kuswara, Ketut M. Kusyairi La Ode Muhammad Yamin Laela Rosmawati Laila Wati lidia fitri, lidia M. Ripani Saputra Mariansi Koeslulat Marlina Rahmawati Mashuri, Arief Muh. Yunan Putra Muhammad Agung Muhammad Ansar, Muhammad Muhammad Azhar Muhammad Basri Muhammad Syaiful Muliana Murniati Musarifa Mustaghfirin Mutiara Nasrul Nasrul Nico Nur Baiti Islamiyah Nurannisa, Siti NURCHAYATI Nurfadilah Nurhidayanti Nurhidayanti S. Nurul Alfitry Nurul Fadhilah NURUL QOMARIYAH Nuswantari, Atika Oktavianus K. Bidawali Ongki Lois Kase Onri Bunga Paul G. Tamelan Petrus Berek Petrus Kasmirus Seng Koten Petrus Tiwan Pianti Sambo Prastyana, Widya Monica Pratiwi, Dyahratna Priskila Sinthike Nandi Palla Putri Arini, Diana Putri Puspita, Putri Putri Reno Kemala Sari R.P.M Ganif Abimanyu Rafiuddin Syah, Andi Rahmat Basuki Renata T Resy Mulyani Retno Dwi Lestari, Retno Dwi Ridayanti Rifal Reianldo N. Rona Biha Risky A Risma Rizal Rizma, Salsabila Roly Edyan ROSYIA WARDANI Saiyidah Cahyani Salamah Samuel Dangi Woda Sandria Narfiana Nindung Saproni Muhammad Samin Sariman, Sarina Satrama Royal Hadinata Satriawan Sekar Ayu Utami, Arifah Sholikah, Iis Siti Aminah W. Tukan Siti Nurdinah Situmorang, Mitra Ronia Sofiati Wardah Sopian Saori Sriwahyuni A. Kadir Sukarno Sukma Hidayat Kurnia Abadi Sulistiyani Suniati Suparmi Surianti Susi Susanti Syaiful Amri Syarif Hidayatullah Syifa Aulia Tantrio, Wendi Taufik, Dasrizal Tedy Kurniawan Topan Siswanto Ulfiyani Asdiansyuri Wahyu Saputra Wenslaus S. K. Basa Winata, Hendly Wongsonadi, Sri Kuswantono Yakop Moni Yeremias Gonzales Bolo Keray Yohanes B. F. Pareira Yos Iden M. Poko Yuliana Hori Duda Yuliati, Ni Nyoman Zahratul Fikni Zulkarnaen