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Abdul Rahman
Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Earth System Variables as Drivers of Environmental Commodity Price Dynamics: A Systematic Review of Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Modelling Approaches (2010–2026) Muhammad Nusrang; Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Agung Tri Utomo; Muh. Qodri Alfairus
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum4973

Abstract

Environmental commodity markets (carbon allowances, electricity, natural gas, and renewable energy instruments) are, at their root, earth system markets: their price-generating processes are as much a product of atmospheric circulation, hydrological regimes, and climate teleconnections as of supply-demand fundamentals or regulatory signals. Despite this physical reality, the machine learning forecasting literature has treated these markets primarily as benchmarking arenas, decoupling predictive architectures from the physical processes that drive price-relevant forcing. This systematic review follows PRISMA 2020 guidelines on a corpus of 413 peer-reviewed studies drawn from 652 Scopus records (2010–2026) and examines how earth system variables, including temperature anomalies, precipitation regimes, wind resource indices, atmospheric pollution metrics, and climate teleconnections such as ENSO and NAO, have been integrated into ML-based environmental commodity price models, and evaluates the evidence for whether physics-informed feature engineering confers measurable accuracy advantages over purely data-driven approaches. Bibliometric analysis reveals rapid field expansion (71.6% of publications in 2021–2026), geographic concentration in Chinese ETS research (?68% of high-impact output), and methodological dominance of hybrid decomposition-deep learning architectures. Models incorporating earth system variables consistently outperform endogenous-only ML architectures by 12–35% on MAPE, yet fewer than 30% of corpus studies include any physical predictor and climate teleconnection indices appear in under 4% of studies despite their relevance at energy market planning horizons. Six research priorities are identified, centred on numerical weather prediction ensemble integration, cross-climate-regime validation, and probabilistic forecasting grounded in physical uncertainty quantification.
Co-Authors A. Octamaya Tenri Awaru Agung Tri Utomo Agus Sutriawan Ahmad Adil Ahmad Akbar Ismail AHMAD ALWI Ahmad Fudhail  Majid Ahmad Rehza Adrianto Ahmad Rum Bismar Ahmad Taqiuddin Syam Ahmadin Ahmadin Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Ainun Jumriatillah Aldri Frinaldi Alfairus, Muh. Qodri Amanda Amin, Andi Nurzakiah Amir Pada, Amir Andi Atssam Mappanyukki Andi Cahaya Rezky Andini Andi Hasriadi Hasyim Andi Mustika Amin Andi Nurfaizah Andi Nuzul Akbar Andi Pangeran Rahmat Andi Saparuddin Nur Andi Trisno Trisno Andika Saputra Annisa Chaerani Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Anwar Ramli Arazzaq Fedra Arifuddin Usman Arimbi Arimbi MB Aslam, Annisa Paramaswary Asriati Asriati Asti Arfah Aswi, Aswi Aulia Azzahra Aura Ramadhani Asri Awaluddin Awaluddin Bahtiar Bahtiar Bernard Bernard Deddy Ibrahim Rauf Dedy Setyawan Dewi Shinta Diana Eka Pratiwi Dimas Afandi Edi Sanjaya Elisabeth Lamba Emanuel Omedetho Jermias Erni Ekafitria Bahar Etno Setyagraha Fahrizal Fahrizal Faozi, Faiz Fatimah Irhas Fauziyyah Wati Hasdar G Hasriani Haeril Hamzah Pagarra Hasmyati, Hasmyati Hastuti Musa Hastuty Musa Hisyam Ihsan Husnul Khotimah Husriani Husain Ichsani Ichsani Ilham Minggi Inez Fricilia Wengkau Irman Rahim Irmayanti Irwan Jafaruddin Jusmawati Jusmawati Khaerunnisa Khaerunnisa Luthfiyyah Az-zahrah M. Sahib Saleh M. Said Zainuddin Mardiyanah Nasta Mauliadi Ramli Minnafira Mubarak Dahlan Muh Ichwan Musa Muh Nur Awal Muh. Nur Awal Muhammad Ammar Naufal Muhammad Irfan Muhammad Nur Rizqy Muhammad Nusrang Muhammad Rijal Alim Rahmat Muhammad Syahrul Saleh Muhammad Syukur Muhammad Zulfikar Muhammadong Mulianah Mulianah Munadhir Munadhir Mustanil Mustanil Nadia Intan Lestari Najamuddin Nur, Muhammad Awal Nurbayani Nurbayani Nurdin Arsyad Nurlela Nurlela Nurlela Nurman Nurman Nurul Hidayah Patta Bundu Rachmat Triandi Tjahjanto Raden Mohamad Herdian Bhakti Rahmad Risan Rahmawati Patta Risma Risma Romansyah Sahabuddin Rosidah Rosidah Rusli Rusli Rusli Saharullah Saharullah Samsuriani Samsuriani Sarifin Sarifin Satriawati Satriawati Sayidiman Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sri Mulyani St. Nur Khalifah Ali Suci Nengsia Sudiadharma Sudiadharma Sudirman Sudirman Sukarna Sukarna Sul Andika Idris Sulaeman Sulaeman Suradi Suriati Eka Putri Syafruddin Side Syahruddin Syahruddin Veithzal Rivai Zainal Wahid, Wahyana Mujari Wahyudin Wahyudin Widya Putri Clarissa Wahid Zulfadli J Zulham Zulham