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Journal : Scientific Journal of Informatics

Optimization of Mineral Fuel Export Forecasting Using Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory Prasetya, Ananda; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro; Sutikno
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol. 13 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v13i1.38381

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to optimize the forecasting of the Net Value of Indonesia's mineral fuel exports using the Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, supported by Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques that are combined to produce an optimal model. Methods: Modeling uses an LSTM architecture equipped with an Attention mechanism, as well as Dropout and Recurrent Dropout. The research procedure uses the CRISP-DM (Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) methodology. The research material used is the Indonesian mineral fuel export dataset with HS code 27 from 2014 to 2025. Model was built using the Random Search method to optimize hyperparameters such as the number of neurons (units), activation functions (Tanh, ReLu), and optimizers (Adam, Nadam, RMSprop). Result: The Attention-based LSTM model with Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques achieved a MAPE of 7.76%, which was better than the other models tested. Attention analysis shows that lag 12 has the greatest dominance, while lags 11 to 10 also contribute significantly, indicating an annual seasonal pattern. Projections for the next 12 months show a moderate decline in Net Value, in line with seasonal trends and historical data. Novelty: The main contribution of this research is the optimization of an Attention-based LSTM model using a combination of Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques, which is effective in forecasting Indonesia's mineral fuel export values because it is able to capture annual seasonal patterns, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of the forecast results.
Co-Authors 'Izzah, Nur ‘Izzah Maulidiya Abdul Aziz Abrar Ikram Ilafi Achmad Choiruddin Adam Sugiarto Adi Susilo Adi Triono Prayasa Adinegara, Aldo W. Afrida Harahap, Dedek Agung, P. A. Maha Agus Suhardono Agus Tita Wanda Agustin, H.C. Kis Agustina Ahmad Laut Hasibuan Ahmad, Mustaffa A. Ajeng Munaya Aulannida Akhmad Suryadi Alaika, Alaika M. Bagus Kurnia PS Alda Risma Widya Ningrum Ali Rivan, Moh Ali, Asmuri Alif Aulia Baroroh Anggraeni, Arista Anis Laili Yunitasari Anita Kristina Arifin, Wan Nor Jazmina Wan Arika Ritonga Ariyani , Sofia Armin Naibaho Arpah, Juni Asmika, Suci Asni, Nasution Atmoko, Dwi Aulia Sayyidan, Rifadhi Awal Ramadhani Ayu Melati Ningsih Bahtiar Wilantara Bambang Widjanarko Otok Batubara, Yusmaini Ayu Beru Ginting, Sri Ulina Beta Rapita Silalahi Binti Istiqomatul Husna Boby Arya Putra Btr, Ali Amran Bunga, Munengsih Citra Dwi Setyowati Dafid, Ach Dahlia, Dahlia Damayanti Sholikhah Darmainur Defrion, Defrion Delly Yanti, Vitania Barantika Denny Yatmadi Derianna Rambe, Anna Derminasari, Derminasari Dewi Susanti Dewi, Ramayani Diah Asih Doni Sastrawan Dwa Desa Warnana Dwi Atmoko Dwi Nofita Sari Dwi Reni Nisvul Lailyningsih Dyah Rini Indriyanti Eddy Setiadi Soedjono Efendi, Medi Efrina Hayani Eka Diah Kartiningrum Enni Suwarsi Rahayu Erisa, Junia Erlinda Nofasari Fadhilah, Ihsan Fadloli Falah, Reo Radius Farikha Qurotun Uyun Fathoni, Farih Muhaimin Fery Ardianto Firmansyah, Fendy Fitri Arum Sasi, Fitri Arum Fransisca Kharina Rosalia Hafsah Nasution, Siti Hamzah Latief Handaningtyas, Inggrid Handayani, Ulvi Fitri Hapsari Hapsari, Ratih Indri Harahap, Dedek Afrida Harianti II Harmadi, Sonny Harry B Hasibuan, Maya Syahfitri Hasibuan, Zulhijjah Hasnah Harahap, Poppy Hasnah Harahap, Popy Hati Harahap, Murni Heny Triana Herdiansyah Dwi Saputra Herman Pratikno, Herman Hidayat Husnul, Ismi Chairani Sartika Husyainah, Hasibuan Ika Devy Pramudiana ikrar hanggara Ikrar Hanggara, Ikrar Imelda Simanullang Indra Sidharta Indriyani, Khofifah Insan, Moh Syifaul Iqbal Askarin Irawardi, Irawardi Irhami Tanjung, Syahri Irma Masithah Jatmiko Endro Suseno Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo Jorge Mateu Julia Rahmadani Julpirman Siregar Juni Arpah Kartolo, Rahmad Kautsar, Muhammad Hafiz Ketut Dewi Martha Erli Handayeni, Ketut Dewi Martha Erli Khairun Nisa Khoirunnisa, Windi Kholidah, Sri KHOLIQ, ABD. 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