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Journal : Scientific Journal of Informatics

Optimization of Mineral Fuel Export Forecasting Using Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory Prasetya, Ananda; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro; Sutikno
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol. 13 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v13i1.38381

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to optimize the forecasting of the Net Value of Indonesia's mineral fuel exports using the Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, supported by Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques that are combined to produce an optimal model. Methods: Modeling uses an LSTM architecture equipped with an Attention mechanism, as well as Dropout and Recurrent Dropout. The research procedure uses the CRISP-DM (Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) methodology. The research material used is the Indonesian mineral fuel export dataset with HS code 27 from 2014 to 2025. Model was built using the Random Search method to optimize hyperparameters such as the number of neurons (units), activation functions (Tanh, ReLu), and optimizers (Adam, Nadam, RMSprop). Result: The Attention-based LSTM model with Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques achieved a MAPE of 7.76%, which was better than the other models tested. Attention analysis shows that lag 12 has the greatest dominance, while lags 11 to 10 also contribute significantly, indicating an annual seasonal pattern. Projections for the next 12 months show a moderate decline in Net Value, in line with seasonal trends and historical data. Novelty: The main contribution of this research is the optimization of an Attention-based LSTM model using a combination of Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques, which is effective in forecasting Indonesia's mineral fuel export values because it is able to capture annual seasonal patterns, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of the forecast results.
Co-Authors 'Izzah, Nur ‘Izzah Maulidiya Abdul Aziz Abrar Ikram Ilafi Achmad Choiruddin Adam Sugiarto Adi Susilo Adi Triono Prayasa Adinegara, Aldo W. Afrida Harahap, Dedek Agung, P. A. Maha Agus Dwi Churniawan Agus Suhardono Agus Tita Wanda Agustin, H.C. Kis Agustina Ahmad Laut Hasibuan Ahmad, Mustaffa A. Ajeng Munaya Aulannida Akhmad Suryadi Alaika, Alaika M. Bagus Kurnia PS Alda Risma Widya Ningrum Ali, Asmuri Alif Aulia Baroroh Anggraeni, Arista Anis Laili Yunitasari Anita Kristina Arifin, Wan Nor Jazmina Wan Arika Ritonga Armin Naibaho Arpah, Juni Asni, Nasution Atmoko, Dwi Aulia Sayyidan, Rifadhi Awal Ramadhani Ayu Melati Ningsih Bahtiar Wilantara Bambang Widjanarko Otok Batubara, Yusmaini Ayu Beru Ginting, Sri Ulina Beta Rapita Silalahi Binti Istiqomatul Husna Boby Arya Putra Citra Dwi Setyowati Dafid, Ach Dahlia, Dahlia Damayanti Sholikhah Darmainur Delly Yanti, Vitania Barantika Denny Yatmadi Derianna Rambe, Anna Dewi Susanti Dewi, Ramayani Diah Asih Doni Sastrawan Dwa Desa Warnana Dwi Atmoko Dwi Nofita Sari Dwi Reni Nisvul Lailyningsih Dyah Rini Indriyanti Echa Junaini Putri Eddy Setiadi Soedjono Efendi, Medi Eka Diah Kartiningrum Enni Suwarsi Rahayu Erisa, Junia Erlinda Nofasari Fadhilah, Ihsan Falah, Reo Radius Farikha Qurotun Uyun Fathoni, Farih Muhaimin Fery Ardianto Firmansyah, Fendy Fitri Arum Sasi, Fitri Arum Fransisca Kharina Rosalia Hamzah Latief Handaningtyas, Inggrid Handayani, Ulvi Fitri Hapsari Hapsari, Ratih Indri Harahap, Dedek Afrida Harianti II Harmadi, Sonny Harry B Hasibuan, Maya Syahfitri Hasnah Harahap, Poppy Hasnah Harahap, Popy Hati Harahap, Murni Heny Triana Herdiansyah Dwi Saputra Herman Pratikno, Herman Hidayat Husnul, Ismi Chairani Sartika Ichwanudin Ika Devy Pramudiana ikrar hanggara Ikrar Hanggara, Ikrar Imelda Simanullang Indra Sidharta Indriyani, Khofifah Insan, Moh Syifaul Iqbal Askarin Irhami Tanjung, Syahri Irma Masithah Jatmiko Endro Suseno Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Purnomo Jorge Mateu Julia Rahmadani Julpirman Siregar Juni Arpah Kautsar, Muhammad Hafiz Ketut Dewi Martha Erli Handayeni, Ketut Dewi Martha Erli Khairun Nisa Khoirunnisa, Windi KHOLIQ, ABD. Krisna Yuwono Fora Kusumaningrum, Ajeng Wardhani Laila Fitriani Laksana , Sigit Dwi Laut, Ahmad Layli Syafira Nasution Lenny Gusti Arini Lila Yuwana Lili Kurniati Lubis, Rodiah Maradona Harahap Maratimbo Harahap Martinus Sony Erstiawan Masithah, Irma Maulidiyah, Sheliza Syahadan Mayrika Hutagalung, Ade Mesra Surya Ariefin Mevy Sitorus, Ruth Mochamad Aryono Adhi Mochammad Arifin Mohamad Zenurianto Mohammad Alif Dio Riskiansyah Mubarok, Fahmi Muh Bahruddin Muh. Bahruddin Muhammad Azzamudin Syahapala Muhammad Fahrizal Alfianto Muhammad Fandy, Fajar Muhammad Fathur Rouf Hasan Muhammad Sulton Musrifatunnisa’, Musrifatunnisa’ Mu’ad Nabila, Debby Dea Naifah, Sonia Ratnaduhita Nurani Nihayatus Sholichah Nita Marpaung, Prama Noor Aini Habibah Nor Cahyo Wibowo Novita, Dina Sri Nur Ainun Nurasma Nuzul Purnama Osa, Dominggus Benyamin Pane, Sri Hartati Poppy Hasnah Harahap Prasetya, Ananda Pratomo, Omie Gripio Purhadi Putra, Riyan Afnanda Putri Silvia Putu Suwarta Rahma ritonga Rahmadani, Julia Rahmaidani Siregar Rahmaningtyas, Ivana Rahmat Kartolo Rahmat Kartolo Rahmawati, Deti Ramadhani, Julia Rashida, Ailsa Dahayu Razi, Mohd Adib Mohammad Rhino Agaswi Pratama Rina Rahayu, Rina Risnawaty Risnawaty Risnawaty Rosadi, Devi Methia Rosmawati Harahap Salae, Asuepan Salihanura, Sifa Samsul Bahri Santi Wulan Purnami Sasmita, Habib Aji Satiawan, Putu Rudy Selvia Rahma Sihkusuma Sentia anastasa Shofi Andari Sibarani, Asni Sigit Ari Saputro Siregar, Muhammad Hatta Siti Nur Jannah Siti Sahara Siti Sarifah Sonny Elitha Munthe Sri bunga Sri Kamariyah Sri Ulina Beru Ginting Suef, Mokhammad Sukahar Sukriyah Kustanti Moerad, Sukriyah Kustanti Sulismawati SULISTIOWATI Sulistiowati Sulistiowati Sumarto Supriyadi Supurnamawati Suryanti Indrayani, Novi Suryanto Marpaung, Michael Susanty Siregar, Susi Suwarno Syafila Indyasari Subagyo Syamsiar, Syamsiar Syamsul Arifin Taufik Fajar Nugroho Titik Lusiani Triana, Heny Tutut Wurijanto UMI NURHIDAYATI Utami Retno Pudjowati Vania, Nyang Vera Kristiana Vivi Dwi Yanti Wangi, Mega Pandan Widayatul Jannah Widodo, Hadi Wiguna, Husein Sadewa Wijanarko, Wahyu Wijayanti, Ika Dewi Winda Harsanti Wiscahyo, Gelar Yani, Beta Fitri Yudha Prasetyawan Yuliyanto, Wakhid Yunanto Tri Laksono, Yunanto Tri Yustinus Ulung Anggraito Yusuf Syahadah, Abdullah Zachranie, Echa Mutiara Zahrilla, Zahrilla Zainal Abidin Zainorabidin, Adnan Zebua, Septinus