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Journal : JSAI (Journal Scientific and Applied Informatics)

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Prediksi Potensi Banjir Menggunakan Machine Learning Dengan Pendekatan XGBoost Dan Logistic Regression Nurita Evitarina; Fitriyanti, Fitriyanti; Utami, Tri Dewi Yuni
JSAI (Journal Scientific and Applied Informatics) Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Januari
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Muhammadiyah Bengkulu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36085/jsai.v9i1.9867

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Indonesia, causing significant material losses and casualties. This study aims to develop a flood potential prediction model based on weather data using machine learning approaches, namely XGBoost and Logistic Regression. The dataset consists of 1,513,505 weather records with 1,165 flood events (0.077%). The features include temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, weather codes, and temporal features generated using a sliding window approach for H-1, H-2, and H-3. Data imbalance was addressed using a combination of stratified undersampling and SMOTE, changing the class ratio from 1:1,298 to 1:3.3. Experimental results show that XGBoost outperforms Logistic Regression, achieving an accuracy of 98.40%, precision of 97.93%, recall of 95.07%, and an ROC-AUC of 99.38%, while Logistic Regression achieved an accuracy of 62.77%. Feature importance analysis indicates that weather codes at H-3 and H-1 are the most influential predictors. With a low false negative rate of 4.9%, the proposed XGBoost model is considered reliable for implementation as a flood early warning system.
Co-Authors Abd. Rasyid Syamsuri Achmad Asrori Afriani, Sinta afsari, Dia Ahmad Syauqy Ali, Iman Amanda, Sovia Amrina, Dian Eka Anastasia Anggarkusuma Arofah, Anastasia Anggarkusuma Anwar, Muhamad Sholihul Apit Priatna Arsin, Arsunan A. Arsulfa Arsulfa Arumawati, Novia Ashilia Ashury, Ashury Aslan Aslan, Aslan Asri Karolina, Asri Aswita, wita Attiya Istarini ATTIYA ISTARINI Awalludin, Dudi Badi’ah, Atik Bima Suryantara Burhanuddin Bahar Chairul Paotonan Chandra Kurniawan, Chandra Chandra, M. Andi Dalina, Dalina Darika, Darika Darmiyati DEKY, DEKY ANWAR Destin Alfianika Maharani dewi, hasna Dwi Febri Isradiati Eddy, Syaiful Edutivia Mardetini, Edutivia Eka Yunita, Eka Ekaputri, Tia Wida Elliza, Elliza Elyasari, Elyasari Eprianto, Eprianto F, Farida Fairuz, Fairuz Farming FATHIA RAYHANI Fatmawati, Anies Febriana, Rara Ferdianti, Andi Tasya Feryani, Feryani Firta, Ikhwanul Fitri Rachmilah Fadmi Hadinata, Febryan Hambali Hambali Hanina Hasmidyani, Dwi Hasna Dewi Hasna, Nur Hendri Gunawan Herina, Nansy Hernawati Hernawati Heyrani, Heyrani Humaryanto, Humaryanto I Gusti Bagus Wiksuana Ismawar, Ismawar Ismawati Ismawati Ivo Amrina Rasyada Jamaludin, Wahyudin Bin Janatiningrum, Isra Jasdar Agus Jayanti, Sri Delasmi jumardin jumardin Jupri Jupri Justin, Wa Ode Sitti Justitia, Budi Kamaria, Siti Kartini Kartini Kartini Kartini Karunia Zuraidaning Tyas Kawakib, Kawakib Kediri, Shafira Ratu Sekartaji Putri Kurniati Abidin Kurniati Abidin, Kurniati Kurniawati, Luluk La Ibal La Rudi Lipinwati ., Lipinwati Malika, Aliya Mansyur, Abu Margareth, Yomeini Marhani Marhani marsigid, didik Meli Puspita, Meli Mia Fatimatul Munsi Miftahurrahma, Miftahurrahma Monikasari*, Monikasari Muh Syafar Muh. Said L Muhamad Fauzi Muhammad Ichsan Hadjri Mujiwati, Mujiwati Muliani, Emi murni murni Musdarina, Musdarina Nasrawati Nasrawati, Nasrawati Nasti, Nilawati Nuraeni, Rina Nurani, Rahmawati Dian NURFADILLAH JUSMAN NURIL MUFIDAH Nurita Evitarina NURLAELA NURLAELA Nurul Fuadi Nuryana, Ferda Pambudi, Didik Rio PURWANTI PURWANTI Putra, Jaffa Rizqita Rahmaniah, Rahmaniah Rahmawati, Rahmawati Rani, Sefrilita Risqi Adikaning ratih ratih Ratna Dewi Renovriska, Melia Dwi Resyana, Hesti Rizki Aji Putra, Gilang Santoso, Arif Budi Saraswati, Endah Sastri, I Gusti Ayu Mirah Widhi Septiana , Yelna Septiani, Nadia Setiadi, Mochammad Adi Setiawan, Viko Shella Rizqi Arfianti, Shella Rizqi Silalahi, Grace Olivia Sirait, Abdullah Siregar, Mara Imam Taufiq Siti Fadhilah, Siti Siti Kholilah, Siti Siti Maimunah Sitompul, Herman Sri Haryati Sri Mulyani Suherman, Suherman Sulastri Sulastri Supriadi Supriadi Susilo Tri Widodo, Susilo Tri Syahrianti Syahrianti Syaiful, Rahmat Syakarwi, Ahmad Syamsiar, Syamsiar Tasnim Tasnim Tirani, Agnes Toni, Toni Tri Astuti Tujuh, Syarifah HR Dg Utami, Erisca Utami, Tri Dewi Yuni Utomo, Trio Vivi Anggia, Vivi Wahananto, Juri Wahdini, Erny Wahida S, Wahida S Wahida Wahida Wiyanti, Sri Wiwik Wood, Mary-Jane Yakub Malik, Yakub Yulita , Hendra Yustiari Yustiari Yusuf, Hambali Zikri, Ahmad Zikri, Zikri Zuhairi, Aminuddin Zuhdiyah Zuhdiyah, Zuhdiyah