Articles
ESTIMASI PARAMETER MODEL ARCH MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYES
Dewi, Mila Setia;
Sutarman, Sutarman
Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA) Vol 5, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Diponegoro University
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DOI: 10.14710/jfma.v5i2.15029
Penelitian ini bertujuan menaksir parameter model ARCH menggunakan Metode Bayes kemudian akan dibandingkan dengan metode Maksimum Likelihood. Pada metode Bayes distribusi prior digabungkan dengan fungsi Likelihood untuk memperoleh distribusi posterior, yang akan menjadi dasar dalam inferensi. Pemilihan prior yang berbeda akan menghasilkan inferensi yang berbeda pula. Distribusi prior yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah prior berdistribusi eksponensial. Setelah distribusi posterior diperoleh, dilakukan simulasi Markov Chain Monte Carlo dengan menggunakan Algoritma Metropolist-Hasting. Dari hasil simulasi MCMC tersebut diperoleh estimator model ARCH menggunakan metode Bayes dan kemudian dibandingkan dengan estimator model ARCH menggunakan metode Maksimum Likelihood. Berdasarkan penelitian ini diketahui bahwa dengan menggunakan data yang sama nilai mean residual dan standard error menggunakan metode Bayes lebih kecil dibandingkan metode Maksimum Likelihood. Hasil mean residual dan standard error menggunakan metode Bayes adalah 0,4372 dan 0,0272. Sedangkan Mean residual dan standard error menggunakan metode Maksimum Likelihood adalah 0,9166 dan 0,0456. Dari hasil tersebut dapat dilihat bahwa estimasi parameter menggunakan metode Bayes baik digunakan pada model ini.
PELATIHAN PEMBUATAN PUPUK HAYATI DI DESA KWEDENKEMBAR KECAMATAN MOJOANYAR KABUPATEN MOJOKERTO
Sutarman, Sutarman;
Putri, Dini Eka
Kumawula: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 7, No 2 (2024): Kumawula: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Padjadjaran
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DOI: 10.24198/kumawula.v7i2.52199
Pupuk organik hayati adalah pupuk organik yang dibuat dari bahan sisa hewan atau tumbuhan dan kaya akan mikroba agen hayati. Kotoran hewan ternak yang berlimpah di desa bisa diolah secara maksimal dan dimanfaatkan sebagai pupuk organik hayati. Pupuk hayati mampu menghasilkan nutrisi bagi pertumbuhan tanaman sekaligus meningkatkan kesuburan dan kesehatan tanah lahan pertanian. Tujuan kegiatan pengabdian pada masyarakat di Desa Kwedenkembar, Kecamatan Mojoanyar, Kabupaten Mojokerto ini memperoleh informasi tingkat kompetensi dan kesiapan kader Gapoktan melalui pelatihan dalam memanfaatkan agen hayati Trichoderma sebagai pupuk hayati dalam rangka memulihkan kesuburan dan kesehatan lahan pertanian. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan partisipasif dalam penyuluhandan pelatihan materi pemanfaatan agen hayati yang diikuti oleh praktek pengolahan bahan dan produksi pupuk hayati Trichoderma. Evaluasi capaian penguasaan dilakukan di awal sebaga pre test dan di akhir penelitian sebaga post test dengan target skor di atas 70 (sakala 0-100). Hasil kegiatan abdimas ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat capaian penguasaan materi sebesar 77,0-79,6 masuk kategori “baik” dan memenuhi target. Kader Mitra Gapoktan siap dalam menyediakan pupuk hayati Trichoderma dan mengaplikasikannya ke lahan pertanian dalam rangka memulihkan kesuburan dan kesehatan lahan.
K-Means Performance Optimization Using Rank Order Centroid (ROC) And Braycurtis Distance
Irwandi, Hafiz;
Sitompul, Opim Salim;
Sutarman, Sutarman
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 6 No. 2 (2022): Articles Research Volume 6 Issue 2, April 2022
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan
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DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v7i2.11371
K-Means is a clustering algorithm that groups data based on similarities between data. Some of the problems that arise from this algorithm are when determining the center point of the cluster randomly. This will certainly affect the final result of a clustering process. To anticipate the poor accuracy value, a process is needed to determine the initial centroid in the initialization process. The second problem is when calculating the Euclidean distance on the distance between data. However, this method only gives the same impact on each data attribute. From some of these problems, this study proposes the Rank Order Centroid (ROC) method for initializing the cluster center point and using the Braycurtis distance method to calculate the distance between data. With the experiment K=2 to K=10, the results obtained in this study are the proposed method obtains an iteration reduction of 6.6% on the Student Performance Exams dataset and 19.3% on the Body Fat Prediction dataset. However, there was an increase in iterations on the Heart Failure dataset by 24.2%. In testing the cluster results using the Silhouette Coefficient, this method shows an increase in the evaluation value of 5.9% in the Student Performance Exams dataset. However, the evaluation value decreased by 8.3% in the Body Fat Prediction dataset and 3.3% in the Heart Failure dataset.
Optimization Model for Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Two Charging Options
Br Ginting, Emmita;
Gultom, Parapat;
Sutarman, Sutarman
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): Article Research Volume 7 Issue 3, July 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan
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DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i3.12577
The use of electric vehicles recently is an alternative way to lower pollutants and the emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from the usage of motor vehicle fuel oil. The limited battery capacity of this electric vehicle is a problem for its users. Vehicle routing problem (VRP) is a problem of integer programming and combinatorial optimization that is frequently used in planning and decision-making processes. One application of this issue is to find the best path for delivering items from a corporation to customers. VRP problems are frequently utilized in order to reduce internal expenditure. Model optimization in this paper uses two rehcarging options, recharging and swapping battery. The purpose of this paper is to present a VRP optimization model for electric vehicle routing problems to find the best route option that minimizes the total of the fees for fixed vehicles, transit, charging, battery changing, and waiting.
Inventory Model for Order Quantity Optimization with Partial Backlogging on Greater Demand at The Beginning
Aritonang, Reanty Teresa;
Darnius, Open;
Sutarman, Sutarman
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): Article Research Volume 7 Issue 3, July 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan
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DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i3.12600
This article discusses the model of inventory with greater demand at the beginning which allows shortages. During the shortage period, it is assumed that there is a backlogged demand, and the remainder is considered lost sales. This research is completed by using the deterministic inventory model method, namely the EOQ model. The result of using the EOQ method is to determine the inventory lot size and length, with the goal of minimizing the total cost of inventory and generating maximum profits related to the inventory model. An numerical example is given to show the use of this model.
Mathematical Modelling In Logistics Transportation Problems with The Direct Search
Rahman, Silvi Anggraini;
Mawengkang, Herman;
Sutarman, Sutarman
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): Article Research Volume 7 Issue 3, July 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan
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DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i3.12601
Migration of rural communities to cities increases logistics activities in urban areas to meet customer needs because there is a close relationship between economic expansion and usage. Daily fluctuating demand for logistics, uncertain driving times and insufficient parking spaces are some of the factors that link the crisis in urban logistics in urban areas, which directly affects operational costs, the environment and its success or failure. The related steps of modeling optimization have a major impact in making complex transportation and logistics systems competitive with each other. This paper proposes a model optimization to solve transportation problems mathematically. The integer programming model would be suitable for the problems that have been described. the author uses direct search to complete the model.
Simplifying Complexity: Linearization Method for Partial Least Squares Regression
Simanullang, Herlin;
Sutarman, Sutarman;
Darnius, Open
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): Article Research Volume 7 Issue 3, July 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan
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DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i3.12754
This research investigates Romera’s local linearization approach as a variance prediction method in partial least squares (PLS) regression. By addressing limitations in the original PLS regression formula, the local linearization approach aims to improve accuracy and stability in variance predictions. Extensive simulations are conducted to assess the method's performance, demonstrating its superiority over traditional algebraic methods and showcasing its computational advantages, particularly with a large number of predictors. Additionally, the study introduces a novel computational technique utilizing bootstrap parameters, enhancing computational stability and robustness. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into the local linearization approach's effectiveness, guiding researchers and practitioners in selecting more reliable and efficient regression modeling techniques.
Pemodelan Regresi Spline Truncated Birespon pada Inflasi dan PDRB Sumatera Utara
Sari, Atika Mayang;
Sutarman, Sutarman;
Rakhmawati, Fibri
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo
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DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3652
A Nonparametric regression with a truncated biresponse spline approach is a good method in solving the problem of unknown shape of the regression curve. Truncated splines provide high flexibility in estimating curves that have data patterns that tend to change at certain intervals and do not require classic assumption tests. The purpose of this study was to obtain the best biresponse truncated spline regression model for North Sumatra's inflation and GRDP. This study uses qualitative methods and uses secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra. Selection of the best model is determined based on the optimal knot point using the minimum GCV value criteria. The research results obtained are the best spline model with 3 knot points with an MSE value of 1.6028 and a minimum GCV value of 0.0452. The value of response 1 is 14.64% and response 2 is 61.85%. This means that the ability of the predictor variable to explain the variance of the response variable is 14.64% and the remaining 61.85% is influenced by other factors.
Strategic plant maintenance planning in agriculture by integrating lean principles and optimization
Simarmata, Gayus;
Suwilo, Saib;
Sitompul, Opim Salim;
Sutarman, Sutarman
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 14, No 6: December 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science
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DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v14i6.pp6279-6286
Operational planning within agricultural production systems plays a pivotal role in facilitating farmers' decision-making processes. This study introduces a novel mathematical model aimed at optimizing plant maintenance planning through the efficient allocation of labor, optimal utilization of machinery, and strategic scheduling. Utilizing mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP), the model integrates lean principles to minimize waste and improve operational efficiency. The primary contributions of this study include the development of a comprehensive maintenance planning model, the application of advanced mathematical techniques in agriculture, and the enhancement of resource allocation strategies. The results demonstrate significant improvements in maintenance task scheduling, reduced downtime, and enhanced productivity, ultimately contributing to sustainable farming practices and food security. This model serves as a strategic decision-support tool for farmers, enabling data-driven planning and resource utilization to achieve both short-term efficiency and long-term agricultural viability.
Uji Efikasi Beauveria Bassiana Untuk Pengendalian Hama Ulat Plutella Xylostella Pada Tanaman Kale (Brassica Oleracea) Var. Sabellica
Sutarman, Sutarman;
Assholikhah, Aisyah Dirra;
Prihatiningrum, Andriani Eko
Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Terapan Vol 23 No 4 (2023)
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Lampung.
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DOI: 10.25181/jppt.v23i4.3012
This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Beauveria bassiana in controlling Plutella xylostella pests. The first stage of the experiment was conducted in vitro at the Pest and Disease Laboratory of UMSIDA by testing the ability of B. bassiana at spore densities of 100, 103, 105, and 107 CFU.mL-1 in inactivating P. xylostella caterpillars. The field application test was carried out on land endemic to leaf caterpillar pests in Seloliman Village, Mojokerto, East Java Province, Indonesia. The experiment was arranged in a Randomized Block Design with four B. bassiana spore density treatments repeated four times. Observations were made on the intensity of attack as well as wet weight and dry weight of plants. Data analysis used ANOVA followed by Duncan's test at the 5% test level to determine differences between treatments. The results showed that B. bassiana effectively deactivated the activity up to 60.2% in the application with a spore density of 107. The application of B. bassiana reduced the intensity of P. xylostella pest attack to 63.41% and increased the wet weight and dry weight of kale leaves by 246.0%. and 305.8% compared without B. bassiana application. The application of this entomopathogenic fungus can be a solution for controlling pests on land that is endemic to leaf caterpillar attacks